New Climate Economics: Methodological Choices and Recommendations

Projections of future impacts, benefits and costs of climate mitigation and adaptation policies are based on both detailed empirical research, and modelling choices and assumptions that frame the analysis. For instance, assumptions about the expected growth of population and incomes drive the projections of greenhouse gas emissions. Assumptions about the pace and nature of innovation, the economy-environment-society interactions and the relative value of future versus current resources affect the estimates of the long-run benefits or costs of climate policies. Assumptions about future population health in the business-as-usual scenario affect the estimates of the health benefits or harms of climate change mitigation and adaptation policies. Further, estimates and assumptions regarding climate variability affect the benefits of adaptation measures to tackle potential increases in climate-related extreme events. Also, methodological choices about the treatment of disparate, incommensurable impacts are often decisive for policy decisions. This document presents a series of what we refer to as critical issues for climate mitigation and adaptation policy analysis, involving overarching choices that affect multiple areas of expert analysis, and in particular the socio-economic assessments of climate policies. The following pages identify key issues for a comprehensive and realistic economic analysis of climate policies, present a few major options for answering those issues, and recommend a preferred course of action or option for analysts to consider (akin to what some refer to as "new economic thinking"). The issue of risk and uncertainty has been addressed in a separate supporting guidance document, due to its overriding importance and specific inter-disciplinary profile (available on the website of the MCA4climate initiative: www.mca4climate.info). In addition, some practical implementation aspects of the issues discussed below have been provided in Annex 1 at the end of this document. Some of the topics addressed here may be more amenable to qualitative than to quantitative analysis; potential examples include the valuation of non-market "goods" such as human health and environmental protection, and the goal of intergenerational equity. It is nonetheless important to understand the implications of both quantitative and qualitative approaches to these issues, since both approaches are often raised in the discussion of climate policy. The guiding principles underpinning the overall MCA4climate approach

Comparisons of Bispectral and Polarimetric Retrievals of Marine Boundary Layer Cloud Microphysics: Case Studies Using a LES-Satellite Retrieval Simulator

Many passive remote-sensing techniques have been developed to retrieve cloud microphysical properties from satellite-based sensors, with the most common approaches being the bispectral and polarimetric techniques. These two vastly different retrieval techniques have been implemented for a variety of polar-orbiting and geostationary satellite platforms, providing global climatological data sets. Prior instrument comparison studies have shown that there are systematic differences between the droplet size retrieval products (effective radius) of bispectral (e.g., MODIS, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) and polarimetric (e.g., POLDER, Polarization and Directionality of Earth's Reflectances) instruments. However, intercomparisons of airborne bispectral and polarimetric instruments have yielded results that do not appear to be systematically biased relative to one another. Diagnosing this discrepancy is complicated, because it is often difficult for instrument intercomparison studies to isolate differences between retrieval technique sensitivities and specific instrumental differences such as calibration and atmospheric correction. In addition to these technical differences the polarimetric retrieval is also sensitive to the dispersion of the droplet size distribution (effective variance), which could influence the interpretation of the droplet size retrieval. To avoid these instrument-dependent complications, this study makes use of a cloud remote-sensing retrieval simulator. Created by coupling a large-eddy simulation (LES) cloud model with a 1-D radiative transfer model, the simulator serves as a test bed for understanding differences between bispectral and polarimetric retrievals. With the help of this simulator we can not only compare the two techniques to one another (retrieval intercomparison) but also validate retrievals directly against the LES cloud properties. Using the satellite retrieval simulator, we are able to verify that at high spatial resolution (50 m) the bispectral and polarimetric retrievals are highly correlated with one another within expected observational uncertainties. The relatively small systematic biases at high spatial resolution can be attributed to different sensitivity limitations of the two retrievals. In contrast, a systematic difference between the two retrievals emerges at coarser resolution. This bias largely stems from differences related to sensitivity of the two retrievals to unresolved inhomogeneities in effective variance and optical thickness. The influence of coarse angular resolution is found to increase uncertainty in the polarimetric retrieval but generally maintains a constant mean value

Interobserver Agreement for Endometrial Cancer Characteristics Evaluated on Biopsy Material

A shift toward a disease-based therapy designed according to patterns of failure and likelihood of nodal involvement predicted by pathologic determinants has recently led to considering a selective approach to lymphadenectomy for endometrial cancer. Therefore, it became critical to examine reproducibility of diagnosing the key determinants of risk, on preoperative endometrial tissue samples as well as the concordance between preoperative and postresection specimens. Six gynaecologic pathologists assessed 105 consecutive endometrial biopsies originally reported as positive for endometrial cancer for cell type (endometrioid versus nonendometrioid), tumor grade (FIGO 3-tiered and 2-tiered), nuclear grade, and risk category (low risk defined as endometrioid histology, grade 1 + 2 and nuclear grade <3). Interrater agreement levels were substantial for identification of nonendometrioid histology (κ = 0.63; SE = 0.025), high tumor grade (κ = 0.64; SE = 0.025), and risk category (κ = 0.66; SE = 0.025). The overall agreement was fair for nuclear grade (κ = 0.21; SE = 0.025). There is agreement amongst pathologists in identifying high-risk pathologic determinants on endometrial cancer biopsies, and these highly correlate with postresection specimens. This is ascertainment prerequisite adaptation of the paradigm shift in surgical staging of patients with endometrial cancer

Triangle-Free Penny Graphs: Degeneracy, Choosability, and Edge Count

We show that triangle-free penny graphs have degeneracy at most two, list coloring number (choosability) at most three, diameter $D=\Omega(\sqrt n)$, and at most $\min\bigl(2n-\Omega(\sqrt n),2n-D-2\bigr)$ edges.Comment: 10 pages, 2 figures. To appear at the 25th International Symposium on Graph Drawing and Network Visualization (GD 2017

Occult Hepatitis B Infection in Patients With Cryptogenic Liver Cirrhosis in Southwest of Iran

Background: Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection has a broad spectrum of manifestation, ranging from silent carrier state to advanced cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. The persistence of HBV DNA in serum and hepatocytes of the cirrhotic patient could be detected by molecular techniques in spite of negative HBV serologic markers. Objectives: This case-control study was designed to evaluate the prevalence of occult HBV infection (OBI) in patients with cryptogenic liver cirrhosis in comparison with healthy subjects. Patients and Methods: Of 165 patients with liver cirrhosis, 50 consecutive patients with cryptogenic cirrhosis and 80 healthy individual without any risk factors as a control group were enrolled in this study. Their sera were tested for HBV DNA using nested PCR method. Results: Of 50 patients with cryptogenic cirrhotic, 36 (72%) were male. The mean age of patients was 53.34 ± 14.73 years; 80 healthy subjects were selected as control group with mean age of 32.65 ± 8.51 years; 7 (14%) of the patients with cryptogenic cirrhosis showed positive HBV DNA by PCR, while HBV DNA was negative for the control group (P = 0.0001); 4 (57%) cases with positive HBV shown by PCR were negative for anti-HBc and anti-HBs tests. The mean level of transaminases was significantly higher in patients with cirrhosis. There were no significant differences in demographic parameters, transaminases level and degree of hepatic failure among cirrhotic patients with and without OBI. Conclusions: The prevalence of OBI was relatively high in patients with cryptogenic cirrhosis. OBI was found among the patients above 40 years old. Prospective cohort studies are needed to evaluate the clinical significance of OBI

A novel targeted/untargeted GC-Orbitrap metabolomics methodology applied to Candida albicans and Staphylococcus aureus biofilms

Introduction: Combined infections from Candida albicans and Staphylococcus aureus are a leading cause of death in the developed world. Evidence suggests that Candida enhances the virulence of Staphylococcus—hyphae penetrate through tissue barriers, while S. aureus tightly associates with the hyphae to obtain entry to the host organism. Indeed, in a biofilm state, C. albicans enhances the antimicrobial resistance characteristics of S. aureus. The association of these microorganisms is also associated with significantly increased morbidity and mortality. Due to this tight association we hypothesised that metabolic effects were also in evidence. Objectives: To explore the interaction, we used a novel GC-Orbitrap-based mass spectrometer, the Q Exactive GC, which combines the high peak capacity and chromatographic resolution of gas chromatography with the sub-ppm mass accuracy of an Orbitrap system. This allows the capability to leverage the widely available electron ionisation libraries for untargeted applications, along with expanding accurate mass libraries and targeted matches based around authentic standards. Methods: Optimised C. albicans and S. aureus mono- and co-cultured biofilms were analysed using the new instrument in addition to the fresh and spent bacterial growth media. Results: The targeted analysis experiment was based around 36 sugars and sugar phosphates, 22 amino acids and five organic acids. Untargeted analysis resulted in the detection of 465 features from fresh and spent medium and 405 from biofilm samples. Three significantly changing compounds that matched to high scoring library fragment patterns were chosen for validation. Conclusion: Evaluation of the results demonstrates that the Q Exactive GC is suitable for metabolomics analysis using a targeted/untargeted methodology. Many of the results were as expected: e.g. rapid consumption of glucose and fructose from the medium regardless of the cell type. Modulation of sugar-phosphate levels also suggest that the pentose phosphate pathway could be enhanced in the cells from co-cultured biofilms. Untargeted metabolomics results suggested significant production of cell-wall biosynthesis components and the consumption of non-proteinaceous amino-acids

Comparisons of bispectral and polarimetric retrievals of marine boundary layer cloud microphysics: case studies using a LES–satellite retrieval simulator

Many passive remote-sensing techniques have been developed to retrieve cloud microphysical properties from satellite-based sensors, with the most common approaches being the bispectral and polarimetric techniques. These two vastly different retrieval techniques have been implemented for a variety of polar-orbiting and geostationary satellite platforms, providing global climatological data sets. Prior instrument comparison studies have shown that there are systematic differences between the droplet size retrieval products (effective radius) of bispectral (e.g., MODIS, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) and polarimetric (e.g., POLDER, Polarization and Directionality of Earth's Reflectances) instruments. However, intercomparisons of airborne bispectral and polarimetric instruments have yielded results that do not appear to be systematically biased relative to one another. Diagnosing this discrepancy is complicated, because it is often difficult for instrument intercomparison studies to isolate differences between retrieval technique sensitivities and specific instrumental differences such as calibration and atmospheric correction. In addition to these technical differences the polarimetric retrieval is also sensitive to the dispersion of the droplet size distribution (effective variance), which could influence the interpretation of the droplet size retrieval. To avoid these instrument-dependent complications, this study makes use of a cloud remote-sensing retrieval simulator. Created by coupling a large-eddy simulation (LES) cloud model with a 1-D radiative transfer model, the simulator serves as a test bed for understanding differences between bispectral and polarimetric retrievals. With the help of this simulator we can not only compare the two techniques to one another (retrieval intercomparison) but also validate retrievals directly against the LES cloud properties. Using the satellite retrieval simulator, we are able to verify that at high spatial resolution (50 m) the bispectral and polarimetric retrievals are highly correlated with one another within expected observational uncertainties. The relatively small systematic biases at high spatial resolution can be attributed to different sensitivity limitations of the two retrievals. In contrast, a systematic difference between the two retrievals emerges at coarser resolution. This bias largely stems from differences related to sensitivity of the two retrievals to unresolved inhomogeneities in effective variance and optical thickness. The influence of coarse angular resolution is found to increase uncertainty in the polarimetric retrieval but generally maintains a constant mean value

A glassy contribution to the heat capacity of hcp 4^4He solids

We model the low-temperature specific heat of solid $^4$He in the hexagonal closed packed structure by invoking two-level tunneling states in addition to the usual phonon contribution of a Debye crystal for temperatures far below the Debye temperature, $T < \Theta_D/50$. By introducing a cutoff energy in the two-level tunneling density of states, we can describe the excess specific heat observed in solid hcp $^4$He, as well as the low-temperature linear term in the specific heat. Agreement is found with recent measurements of the temperature behavior of both specific heat and pressure. These results suggest the presence of a very small fraction, at the parts-per-million (ppm) level, of two-level tunneling systems in solid $^4$He, irrespective of the existence of supersolidity.Comment: 11 pages, 4 figure

Characterizing solute hydrogen and hydrides in pure and alloyed titanium at the atomic scale

Ti has a high affinity for hydrogen and are typical hydride formers . Ti -hydride are brittle phases which probably cause premature failure of Ti -alloys. Here, we used atom probe tomography and electron microscopy to investigate the hydrogen di stribution in a set of specimens of commercially pure Ti , model and commercial Ti -alloys. Although likely partly introduced during specimen preparation with the focused- ion beam, we show formation of Ti-hydrides along α grain boundaries and α / β phase boundaries in commercial pure Ti and α + β binary model alloys . No hydrides are observed in the α phase in alloys with Al addition or quenched-in Mo supersaturation

Together forever? Explaining exclusivity in party-firm relations

Parties and firms are the key actors of representative democracy and capitalism respectively and the dynamic of attachment between them is a central feature of any political economy. This is the first article to systematically analyse the exclusivity of party-firm relations. We consider exclusivity at a point in time and exclusivity over time. Does a firm have a relationship with only one party at a given point in time, or is it close to more than one party? Does a firm maintain a relationship with only one party over time, or does it switch between parties? Most important, how do patterns of exclusivity impact on a firm’s ability to lobby successfully? We propose a general theory, which explains patterns of party-firm relations by reference to the division of institutions and the type of party competition in a political system. A preliminary test of our theory with Polish survey data confirms our predictions, establishing a promising hypothesis for future research