The Measures and the loss - Case Study on non-tariff barriers related to veterinary export certificates in Dutch exports

Case study research into the mandatory veterinary requirements on Dutch exports of live animals and animal products provides empirical evidence on the trade effects of nontariff measures (NTMs). The paper discusses the analytical approach to assess how veterinary health attestation may create (temporary) obstacles for Dutch exports, what these obstacles are, and whether competing exporters in EU countries have encountered similar barriers. We have a dataset on 166 cases in 2004-06 where the process of issuing veterinary certificates for Dutch exports to non- EU destinations was disrupted. Products covered are animal-based products, live animals and feed. We use a sample of 30 cases that continued after 2006, the ‘longlasting problems’, and 39 cases that came up and got solved between 2004 and 2006, the temporary problems. The main challenge is to link the available record of recognition problems to the disruptions in exports. In order to assess trade disruptions, statistical tests of outliers and trend breaches are performed on detailed monthly trade data, and the issue of not-observed trade needs to be addressed. This raises the need to address disruption patterns around the imposition of measures in trade. The alternative patterns under examination are (i) measures that have an immediate trade impact, (ii) measures due to which trade gradually expands or reduces, and (iii) measures that divert trade to alternative export destinations. Finally, we want to examine whether the impact of veterinary health attestation on trade can be specified towards the type of trade barrier. For that, we suggest to introduce a distinction between three different types of barriers, based on whether obstacles relate to the non-conformity of products to import requirements or a failure in the conformity assessment or both.non-tariff measures, conformity assessment, animal products, International Relations/Trade, Livestock Production/Industries,

Product differentiation under the WTO; An analysis of labelling and tariff or tax measures concerning farm animal welfare

This report examines the possibility of giving preferential treatment to imports of meat products that meet improved standards in terms of animal welfare in production. Three specific forms of preferential treatment are considered here as possible measures for increasing levels of animal welfare in meat production in the EU and its exporting partners: labelling of products (either voluntary or compulsory), differentiated import tariffs and differentiated consumer taxes. The likely admissibility of such measures under WTO rules is assessed by means of an analysis of previous decisions by WTO dispute settlement panels. It is concluded that all of the measures analysed have a possibility of being upheld, based on a defence relying on Article XX of the GATT and perhaps also the TBT Agreement. While the incentives offered by labelling could be reinforced with differentiated tariffs or taxes, these financial instruments involve various additional complications. They could best be considered after the possibilities of regulated labelling schemes have been exhausted.International Relations/Trade,

Cattle Trade and the Risk of Importing Animal Diseases into the Netherlands

Projections of live cattle trade in the EU-25 assist to reduce the uncertainty on the risk of importing animal diseases in the Netherlands. The accession of 10 member states to the European Union has a potentially large impact on livestock trade in the EU as it liberalized in one stroke a trade that was administered by the Management Committee for Beef until May 1, 2004. The approach combines AG-Memod partial equilibrium with GTAP general equilibrium modelling in order to estimate the impact of quota liberalization. Quota removal will substantially alter the regional structure of livestock imports, as the share of new EU member states in the east triples to 25%. The risk outlook indicates a need for enhanced animal health services in the new member states.livestock, animal disease, trade, projections, quota, EU-enlargement, Risk and Uncertainty, F17, I18, Q17,

TRADE LIBERALISATION UNDER THE DOHA DEVELOPMENT AGENDA; OPTIONS AND CONSEQUENCES FOR AFRICA

This study provides a quantitative estimate of the potential economic consequences of multilateral trade reform under the WTO for Africa using a framework that explicitly incorporates issues of concern to the region, such as preference erosion, loss of tariff revenue, and trade facilitation. It also examines the impact of OECD agricultural support programmes on economic welfare and specialisation in Africa. In the static version of the GTAP model, the study finds that full liberalisation of trade would increase global welfare (income) by 0.3 per cent, but would add 0.7 per cent annually to income in the African region. Sub-Saharan Africa and, to a lesser extent, Southern Africa, are vulnerable to partial trade reforms as they incur losses from partial reform while all other regions derive positive gains from a liberalisation of minor scope.International Relations/Trade,

Indonesian Interests in The Agricultural Negotiations Under The Doha Development Agenda: an Analysis of the "July 2004 Package"

IndonesianSejak Agenda Pembangunan Doha WTO dirumuskan terjadi perkembangan arah liberalisasi pedagangan. Di negara-negara OECD, keinginan untuk mengurangi bantuan domestik tampaknya agak lamban dan sejumlah negara berkembang agak enggan membuka pasarnya. Pada “paket Juli 2004” sejumlah negara anggota menyetujui adanya pengecualian perubahan pada beberapa produk, produk khas (special product) bagi negara berkembang dan produk peka (sensitive product) pada negara maju. Dengan memilih ‘paket Juli 2004’ sebagai titik awal, makalah ini mencoba menganalisis kepentingan Indonesian dalam perundingan pertanian dalam Agenda Pembangunan Doha. Penelitian ini menggunakan model ekonomi perdagangan dan produksi (pangkalan data dan analisis GTAP) untuk mengidentifikasi kemungkinan dampak skenario liberalisasi global yang realistis dalam semangat ‘paket Juli 2004’ pada perekonomian Indonesia. Pada keadaan perdagangan yang sudah berlangsung agak liberal di Indonesia saat ini dampak menyeluruh yang diharapkan pada pendapatan nasional, perdagangan dan produksi bernilai positif, tetapi terbatas. Untuk Indonesian liberalisasi global pertanian menjanjikan prospek yang positif untuk minyak sayuran dan produk ternak. Diduga terjadi pengaruh negatif dalam upaya melindungi sektor beras dan gula, yang akan dapat dikelola dengan biaya lumayan dengan menentukan beras sebagai produk khas. Skema pelarangan impor atau kuota terbatas akan menimbulkan penurunan tingkat kesejahteraan secara nyata.EnglishEver since the WTO Doha Development Agenda was formulated, there has been mixed development in the direction of global trade liberalization. The ambitions on reforming domestic support in OECD countries seem to be moderate, at best, and a number of developing countries are less inclined to open their markets through improved access. Under ‘July 2004 package’ members now agree on far reaching exemptions from reforms in individual products (special products for developing countries and sensitive products for developed countries). Taking the ‘July 2004 package’ as a starting point, this paper tries to assess Indonesian interests in the agricultural negotiations under the WTO Doha Development Agenda. This study uses a large-scale economic model of trade and production (GTAP data base and analysis) to identify the possible impact of a realistic global liberalization scenario in the spirit of the ‘July 2004 package’ on the Indonesian economy. Given the prevailing quite liberal trade regime in Indonesia the expected overall impacts on national income, trade and production are positive, but rather limited. For Indonesian agriculture global liberalization offers positive prospects for vegetable oils and for animal products. There are small adverse effects on the protected rice and sugar sectors, which can be managed at modest costs by designating rice as special product (SP). An import ban or restrictive quota regime would entail significant welfare losses

Modelling food security: Bridging the gap between the micro and the macro scale

Achieving food and nutrition security for all in a changing and globalized world remains a critical challenge of utmost importance. The development of solutions benefits from insights derived from modelling and simulating the complex interactions of the agri-food system, which range from global to household scales and transcend disciplinary boundaries. A wide range of models based on various methodologies (from food trade equilibrium to agent-based) seek to integrate direct and indirect drivers of change in land use, environment and socio-economic conditions at different scales. However, modelling such interaction poses fundamental challenges, especially for representing non-linear dynamics and adaptive behaviours. We identify key pieces of the fragmented landscape of food security modelling, and organize achievements and gaps into different contextual domains of food security (production, trade, and consumption) at different spatial scales. Building on in-depth reflection on three core issues of food security – volatility, technology, and transformation – we identify methodological challenges and promising strategies for advancement. We emphasize particular requirements related to the multifaceted and multiscale nature of food security. They include the explicit representation of transient dynamics to allow for path dependency and irreversible consequences, and of household heterogeneity to incorporate inequality issues. To illustrate ways forward we provide good practice examples using meta-modelling techniques, non-equilibrium approaches and behavioural-based modelling endeavours. We argue that further integration of different model types is required to better account for both multi-level agency and cross-scale feedbacks within the food system.</p

The Measures and the loss - Case Study on non-tariff barriers related to veterinary export certificates in Dutch exports

Case study research into the mandatory veterinary requirements on Dutch exports of live animals and animal products provides empirical evidence on the trade effects of nontariff measures (NTMs). The paper discusses the analytical approach to assess how veterinary health attestation may create (temporary) obstacles for Dutch exports, what these obstacles are, and whether competing exporters in EU countries have encountered similar barriers. We have a dataset on 166 cases in 2004-06 where the process of issuing veterinary certificates for Dutch exports to non- EU destinations was disrupted. Products covered are animal-based products, live animals and feed. We use a sample of 30 cases that continued after 2006, the ‘longlasting problems’, and 39 cases that came up and got solved between 2004 and 2006, the temporary problems. The main challenge is to link the available record of recognition problems to the disruptions in exports. In order to assess trade disruptions, statistical tests of outliers and trend breaches are performed on detailed monthly trade data, and the issue of not-observed trade needs to be addressed. This raises the need to address disruption patterns around the imposition of measures in trade. The alternative patterns under examination are (i) measures that have an immediate trade impact, (ii) measures due to which trade gradually expands or reduces, and (iii) measures that divert trade to alternative export destinations. Finally, we want to examine whether the impact of veterinary health attestation on trade can be specified towards the type of trade barrier. For that, we suggest to introduce a distinction between three different types of barriers, based on whether obstacles relate to the non-conformity of products to import requirements or a failure in the conformity assessment or both

Cattle trade and the risk of importing animal diseases into the Netherlands

This study examines the risk of importing animal diseases into the Netherlands through livestock trade. It presents projections of Dutch cattle imports until 2010, and applies quantitative epidemiology to estimate the related probabilities of importing three animal diseases (foot and mouth disease, bovine tuberculosis, and leptospirosis). A key result is that trade flows involving large numbers of cattle from a large number of small-scale farms poses alarming risks to veterinary health in the Netherlands

Cattle trade and the risk of importing animal diseases into the Netherlands

This study examines the risk of importing animal diseases into the Netherlands through livestock trade. It presents projections of Dutch cattle imports until 2010, and applies quantitative epidemiology to estimate the related probabilities of importing three animal diseases (foot and mouth disease, bovine tuberculosis, and leptospirosis). A key result is that trade flows involving large numbers of cattle from a large number of small-scale farms poses alarming risks to veterinary health in the Netherlands.Livestock Production/Industries,