No additional prognostic value of genetic information in the prediction of vascular events after cerebral ischemia of arterial origin

Background: Patients who have suffered from cerebral ischemia have a high risk of recurrent vascular events. Predictive models based on classical risk factors typically have limited prognostic value. Given that cerebral ischemia has a heritable component, genetic information might improve performance of these risk models. Our aim was to develop and compare two models: one containing traditional vascular risk factors, the other also including genetic information. Methods and Results: We studied 1020 patients with cerebral ischemia and genotyped them with the Illumina Immunochip. Median follow-up time was 6.5 years; the annual incidence of new ischemic events (primary outcome, n=198) was 3.0%. The prognostic model based on classical vascular risk factors had an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC-ROC) of 0.65 (95% confidence interval 0.61-0.69). When we added a genetic risk score based on prioritized SNPs from a genome-wide association study of ischemic stroke (using summary statistics from the METASTROKE study which included 12389 cases and 62004 controls), the AUC-ROC remained the same. Similar results were found for the secondary outcome ischemic stroke. Conclusions: We found no additional value of genetic information in a prognostic model for the risk of ischemic events in patients with cerebral ischemia of arterial origin. This is consistent with a complex, polygenic architecture, where many genes of weak effect likely act in concert to influence the heritable risk of an individual to develop (recurrent) vascular events. At present, genetic information cannot help clinicians to distinguish patients at high risk for recurrent vascular events

A novel MMP12 locus is associated with large artery atherosclerotic stroke using a genome-wide age-at-onset informed approach.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have begun to identify the common genetic component to ischaemic stroke (IS). However, IS has considerable phenotypic heterogeneity. Where clinical covariates explain a large fraction of disease risk, covariate informed designs can increase power to detect associations. As prevalence rates in IS are markedly affected by age, and younger onset cases may have higher genetic predisposition, we investigated whether an age-at-onset informed approach could detect novel associations with IS and its subtypes; cardioembolic (CE), large artery atherosclerosis (LAA) and small vessel disease (SVD) in 6,778 cases of European ancestry and 12,095 ancestry-matched controls. Regression analysis to identify SNP associations was performed on posterior liabilities after conditioning on age-at-onset and affection status. We sought further evidence of an association with LAA in 1,881 cases and 50,817 controls, and examined mRNA expression levels of the nearby genes in atherosclerotic carotid artery plaques. Secondly, we performed permutation analyses to evaluate the extent to which age-at-onset informed analysis improves significance for novel loci. We identified a novel association with an MMP12 locus in LAA (rs660599; p = 2.5×10⁻⁷), with independent replication in a second population (p = 0.0048, OR(95% CI) = 1.18(1.05-1.32); meta-analysis p = 2.6×10⁻⁸). The nearby gene, MMP12, was significantly overexpressed in carotid plaques compared to atherosclerosis-free control arteries (p = 1.2×10⁻¹⁵; fold change = 335.6). Permutation analyses demonstrated improved significance for associations when accounting for age-at-onset in all four stroke phenotypes (p<0.001). Our results show that a covariate-informed design, by adjusting for age-at-onset of stroke, can detect variants not identified by conventional GWAS

Meta-analysis in more than 17,900 cases of ischemic stroke reveals a novel association at 12q24.12

Results: In an overall analysis of 17,970 cases of ischemic stroke and 70,764 controls, we identified a novel association on chromosome 12q24 (rs10744777, odds ratio [OR] 1.10 [1.07-1.13], p 5 7.12 3 10-11) with ischemic stroke. The association was with all ischemic stroke rather than an individual stroke subtype, with similar effect sizes seen in different stroke subtypes. There was no association with intracerebral hemorrhage (OR 1.03 [0.90-1.17], p 5 0.695).Conclusion: Our results show, for the first time, a genetic risk locus associated with ischemic stroke as a whole, rather than in a subtype-specific manner. This finding was not associated with intracerebral hemorrhage.Methods: Using the Immunochip, we genotyped 3,420 ischemic stroke cases and 6,821 controls. After imputation we meta-analyzed the results with imputed GWAS data from 3,548 case

Safety and feasibiLIty of Metformin in patients with Impaired glucose Tolerance and a recent TIA or minor ischemic stroke (LIMIT) trial - a multicenter, randomized, open-label phase II trial

Background and purpose: We aimed to assess the safety, feasibility, and effects on glucose metabolism of treatment with metformin in patients with TIA or minor ischemic stroke and impaired glucose tolerance. Methods: We performed a multicenter, randomized, controlled, open-label phase II trial with blinded outcome assessment. Patients with TIA or minor ischemic stroke in the previous six months and impaired glucose tolerance (2-hour post-load glucose levels of 7.8-11.0mmol/l) were randomized to metformin, in a daily dose of 2g, or no metformin, for three months. Primary outcome measures were safety and feasibility of metformin, and the adjusted difference in 2-hour post-load glucose levels at three months. This trial is registered as an International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number 54960762. Results: Forty patients were enrolled; 19 patients were randomly assigned metformin. Nine patients in the metformin group had side effects, mostly gastrointestinal, leading to permanent discontinuation in four patients after 3-10 weeks. Treatment with metformin was associated with a significant reduction in 2-hour post-load glucose levels of 0·97mmol/l (95% CI 0·11-1·83) in the on-treatment analysis, but not in the intention-to-treat analysis (0·71mmol/l; 95% CI -0·36 to 1·78). Conclusions: Treatment with metformin in patients with TIA or minor ischemic stroke and impaired glucose tolerance is safe, but leads to minor side effects. If tolerated, it may lead to a significant reduction in post-load glucose levels. This suggests that the role of metformin as potential therapeutic agent for secondary stroke prevention should be further explored

Safety and feasibiLIty of Metformin in patients with Impaired glucose Tolerance and a recent TIA or minor ischemic stroke (LIMIT) trial - a multicenter, randomized, open-label phase II trial

Background and purpose: We aimed to assess the safety, feasibility, and effects on glucose metabolism of treatment with metformin in patients with TIA or minor ischemic stroke and impaired glucose tolerance. Methods: We performed a multicenter, randomized, controlled, open-label phase II trial with blinded outcome assessment. Patients with TIA or minor ischemic stroke in the previous six months and impaired glucose tolerance (2-hour post-load glucose levels of 7.8-11.0mmol/l) were randomized to metformin, in a daily dose of 2g, or no metformin, for three months. Primary outcome measures were safety and feasibility of metformin, and the adjusted difference in 2-hour post-load glucose levels at three months. This trial is registered as an International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number 54960762. Results: Forty patients were enrolled; 19 patients were randomly assigned metformin. Nine patients in the metformin group had side effects, mostly gastrointestinal, leading to permanent discontinuation in four patients after 3-10 weeks. Treatment with metformin was associated with a significant reduction in 2-hour post-load glucose levels of 0·97mmol/l (95% CI 0·11-1·83) in the on-treatment analysis, but not in the intention-to-treat analysis (0·71mmol/l; 95% CI -0·36 to 1·78). Conclusions: Treatment with metformin in patients with TIA or minor ischemic stroke and impaired glucose tolerance is safe, but leads to minor side effects. If tolerated, it may lead to a significant reduction in post-load glucose levels. This suggests that the role of metformin as potential therapeutic agent for secondary stroke prevention should be further explored

No additional prognostic value of genetic information in the prediction of vascular events after cerebral ischemia of arterial origin : The PROMISe study

Background: Patients who have suffered from cerebral ischemia have a high risk of recurrent vascular events. Predictive models based on classical risk factors typically have limited prognostic value. Given that cerebral ischemia has a heritable component, genetic information might improve performance of these risk models. Our aim was to develop and compare two models: one containing traditional vascular risk factors, the other also including genetic information. Methods and Results: We studied 1020 patients with cerebral ischemia and genotyped them with the Illumina Immunochip. Median follow-up time was 6.5 years; the annual incidence of new ischemic events (primary outcome, n=198) was 3.0%. The prognostic model based on classical vascular risk factors had an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC-ROC) of 0.65 (95% confidence interval 0.61-0.69). When we added a genetic risk score based on prioritized SNPs from a genome-wide association study of ischemic stroke (using summary statistics from the METASTROKE study which included 12389 cases and 62004 controls), the AUC-ROC remained the same. Similar results were found for the secondary outcome ischemic stroke. Conclusions: We found no additional value of genetic information in a prognostic model for the risk of ischemic events in patients with cerebral ischemia of arterial origin. This is consistent with a complex, polygenic architecture, where many genes of weak effect likely act in concert to influence the heritable risk of an individual to develop (recurrent) vascular events. At present, genetic information cannot help clinicians to distinguish patients at high risk for recurrent vascular events