A call for viewshed ecology : Advancing our understanding of the ecology of information through viewshed analysis

JA was supported by funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement No 661211, and JMJT by NERC grant NE/J008001/1.Peer reviewedPostprin

Simple individual-based models effectively represent Afrotropical forest bird movement in complex landscapes

Reliable estimates of dispersal rates between habitat patches (i.e. functional connectivity) are critical for predicting long-term effects of habitat fragmentation on population persistence. Connectivity measures are frequently derived from least cost path or graph-based approaches, despite the fact that these methods make biologically unrealistic assumptions. Individual-based models (IBMs) have been proposed as an alternative as they allow modelling movement behaviour in response to landscape resistance. However, IBMs typically require excessive data to be useful for management. Here, we test the extent to which an IBM requiring only an uncomplicated set of movement rules [the 'stochastic movement simulator' (SMS)] can predict animal movement behaviour in real-world landscapes. Movement behaviour of two forest birds, the Cabanis's greenbul Phyllastrephus cabanisi (a forest specialist) and the white-starred robin Pogonocichla stellata (a habitat generalist), across an Afrotropical matrix was simulated using SMS. Predictions from SMS were evaluated against a set of detailed movement paths collected by radiotracking homing individuals. SMS was capable of generating credible predictions of bird movement, although simulations were sensitive to the cost values and the movement rules specified. Model performance was generally highest when movement was simulated across low-contrasting cost surfaces and when virtual individuals were assigned low directional persistence and limited perceptual range. SMS better predicted movements of the habitat specialist than the habitat generalist, which highlights its potential to model functional connectivity when species movements are affected by the matrix. Synthesis and applications. Modelling the dispersal process with greater biological realism is likely to be critical for improving our predictive capability regarding functional connectivity and population persistence. For more realistic models to be widely applied, it is vital that their application is not overly complicated or data demanding. Here, we show that given relatively basic understanding of a species' dispersal ecology, the stochastic movement simulator represents a promising tool for estimating connectivity, which can help improve the design of functional ecological networks aimed at successful species conservation

Synchronous and metachronous urothelial carcinoma of the upper urinary tract and the bladder: Are they clonally related? A systematic review

Purpose: Following radical nephroureterectomy for upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC), intravesical recurrence (IVR) is found in 22% to 47% of patients. Patients with a primary urothelial carcinoma of the bladder (UCB) have an increased risk of a future UTUC (1%–5%). Paired UTUC and UCB might represent clonally related tumors due to intraluminal seeding of tumor cells or might be separate entities of urothelial carcinoma caused by field cancerization. We systematically reviewed all the relevant literature to address the possible clonal relation of UTUC and paired UCB. Materials and Methods: MEDLINE, EMBASE, and COCHRANE databases were systematically searched for relevant citations published between January 2000 and July 2019. This study was performed according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses guidelines. Of 5038 citations identified, 86 full papers were screened, and 9 studies met the inclusion criteria. Results: The populations studied and the molecular techniques used to assess clonality of UTUC and paired UCB differed largely over time. Eight studies reported on primary UTUC and meta- or synchronous IVR without a history of UCB. A total of 118 tumors

The importance of realistic dispersal models in conservation planning : application of a novel modelling platform to evaluate management scenarios in an Afrotropical biodiversity hotspot

As biodiversity hotspots are often characterized by high human population densities, implementation of conservation management practices that focus only on the protection and enlargement of pristine habitats is potentially unrealistic. An alternative approach to curb species extinction risk involves improving connectivity among existing habitat patches. However, evaluation of spatially explicit management strategies is challenging, as predictive models must account for the process of dispersal, which is difficult in terms of both empirical data collection and modelling. Here, we use a novel, individual-based modelling platform that couples demographic and mechanistic dispersal models to evaluate the effectiveness of realistic management scenarios tailored to conserve forest birds in a highly fragmented biodiversity hotspot. Scenario performance is evaluated based on the spatial population dynamics of a well-studied forest bird species. The largest population increase was predicted to occur under scenarios increasing habitat area. However, the effectiveness was sensitive to spatial planning. Compared to adding one large patch to the habitat network, adding several small patches yielded mixed benefits: although overall population sizes increased, specific newly created patches acted as dispersal sinks, which compromised population persistence in some existing patches. Increasing matrix connectivity by the creation of stepping stones is likely to result in enhanced dispersal success and occupancy of smaller patches.Synthesis and applications. We show that the effectiveness of spatial management is strongly driven by patterns of individual dispersal across landscapes. For species conservation planning, we advocate the use of models that incorporate adequate realism in demography and, particularly, in dispersal behaviours.Peer reviewe

The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project

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The PREDICTS database: a global database of how local terrestrial biodiversity responds to human impacts

Biodiversity continues to decline in the face of increasing anthropogenic pressures such as habitat destruction, exploitation, pollution and introduction of alien species. Existing global databases of species’ threat status or population time series are dominated by charismatic species. The collation of datasets with broad taxonomic and biogeographic extents, and that support computation of a range of biodiversity indicators, is necessary to enable better understanding of historical declines and to project – and avert – future declines. We describe and assess a new database of more than 1.6 million samples from 78 countries representing over 28,000 species, collated from existing spatial comparisons of local-scale biodiversity exposed to different intensities and types of anthropogenic pressures, from terrestrial sites around the world. The database contains measurements taken in 208 (of 814) ecoregions, 13 (of 14) biomes, 25 (of 35) biodiversity hotspots and 16 (of 17) megadiverse countries. The database contains more than 1% of the total number of all species described, and more than 1% of the described species within many taxonomic groups – including flowering plants, gymnosperms, birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians, beetles, lepidopterans and hymenopterans. The dataset, which is still being added to, is therefore already considerably larger and more representative than those used by previous quantitative models of biodiversity trends and responses. The database is being assembled as part of the PREDICTS project (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems – www.predicts.org.uk). We make site-level summary data available alongside this article. The full database will be publicly available in 2015

Data and R code for What you see is where you go: visibility influences movement decisions of a forest bird navigating a 3D structured matrix

Animal spatial behaviour is often presumed to reflect responses to visual cues. However, inference of behaviour in relation to the environment is challenged by the lack of objective methods to identify the information that effectively is available to an animal from a given location. In general, animals are assumed to have unconstrained information on the environment within a detection circle of a certain radius (the perceptual range; PR). However, visual cues are only available up to the first physical obstruction within an animal's PR, making information availability a function of an animal's location within the physical environment (the effective visual perceptual range; EVPR). By using LiDAR data and viewshed analysis, we model forest birds' EVPRs at each step along a movement path. We found that the EVPR was on average 0.063% that of an unconstrained PR and, by applying a step-selection analysis, that individuals are 1.57 times more likely to move to a tree within their EVPR than to an equivalent tree outside it. This demonstrates that behavioural choices can be substantially impacted by the characteristics of an individual's EVPR and highlights that inferences made from movement data may be improved by accounting for the EVPR