Why bayesian “evidence for H1” in one condition and bayesian “evidence for H0” in another condition does not mean good-enough bayesian evidence for a difference between the conditions

Psychologists are often interested in whether an independent variable has a different effect in condition A than in condition B. To test such a question, one needs to directly compare the effect of that variable in the two conditions (i.e., test the interaction). Yet many researchers tend to stop when they find a significant test in one condition and a nonsignificant test in the other condition, deeming this as sufficient evidence for a difference between the two conditions. In this Tutorial, we aim to raise awareness of this inferential mistake when Bayes factors are used with conventional cutoffs to draw conclusions. For instance, some researchers might falsely conclude that there must be good-enough evidence for the interaction if they find good-enough Bayesian evidence for the alternative hypothesis, H1, in condition A and good-enough Bayesian evidence for the null hypothesis, H0, in condition B. The case study we introduce highlights that ignoring the test of the interaction can lead to unjustified conclusions and demonstrates that the principle that any assertion about the existence of an interaction necessitates the direct comparison of the conditions is as true for Bayesian as it is for frequentist statistics. We provide an R script of the analyses of the case study and a Shiny app that can be used with a 2 × 2 design to develop intuitions on this issue, and we introduce a rule of thumb with which one can estimate the sample size one might need to have a well-powered design

Recycling bins, garbage cans or think tanks? Three myths regarding policy analysis institutes

The phrase 'think tank' has become ubiquitous – overworked and underspecified – in the political lexicon. It is entrenched in scholarly discussions of public policy as well as in the 'policy wonk' of journalists, lobbyists and spin-doctors. This does not mean that there is an agreed definition of think tank or consensual understanding of their roles and functions. Nevertheless, the majority of organizations with this label undertake policy research of some kind. The idea of think tanks as a research communication 'bridge' presupposes that there are discernible boundaries between (social) science and policy. This paper will investigate some of these boundaries. The frontiers are not only organizational and legal; they also exist in how the 'public interest' is conceived by these bodies and their financiers. Moreover, the social interactions and exchanges involved in 'bridging', themselves muddy the conception of 'boundary', allowing for analysis to go beyond the dualism imposed in seeing science on one side of the bridge, and the state on the other, to address the complex relations between experts and public policy

Towards the integration of functions, relations and types in an AI programming language

This paper describes the design and implementation of the programming language PC-Life. This language integrates the functional and the Logic-oriented programming style and feature types supporting inheritance. This combination yields a language particularly suited to knowledge representation, especially for application in computational linguistics

The management of ocular allergy in community pharmacies in the United Kingdom

Background Ocular allergies frequently present in pharmacy practices. However, research into the actual management of ocular allergy in pharmacies is lacking. Objective To determine and quantify history and symptom questioning of a patient with presumed allergic conjunctivitis and management strategies employed by pharmacy staff in the UK. Method A mystery shopper technique was used to simulate an episode of allergic conjunctivitis in 100 community pharmacies across the UK. Results The mean number of questions asked by pharmacy staff to the patient was 3.5 ± 2.6, with a range of 0-10. The most common question was whether the patient had a history of allergies (45 %).Ninety-one percent advised on treatment, with the remaining 9 % directly referring to the patient's general practitioner (n = 4) or pharmacist(n = 4), but only two to their optometrist. The most common treatment suggested was sodium cromoglycate 2 % (50 %). However, many pharmacies advising treatment did not ask the patient's age (37 %), if they wore contact lenses (43 %), or gave dosage advice (43 %). Only 5 % of pharmacies advised follow up and 14 % suggested visiting a general practitioner and 1 % an optometrist if symptoms did not resolve with treatment. Conclusion There is a need for improved ophthalmological training for pharmacy staff with respect to the management of allergic conjunctivitis. © Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2012

Diagnostic accuracy of Doppler ultrasound technique of the penile arteries in correlation to selective arteriography

In 63% of 265 patients with erectile dysfunction a relevant arterial inflow disturbance was found by Doppler ultrasound examination. Correlation between Doppler and arteriography in 58 patients showed an accuracy of 95% in detecting penile arteries and an accuracy of 91% in discovering a pathological arterial pattern (arterial anomaly or arteriosclerotic obstruction). In 15 patients the arterial inflow was measured additionally by Doppler ultrasound technique after intracavernosal injection of vasoactive drugs (IIVD) (7.5 mg papaverine and 0.25 mg phentolamine). This technique proved to be more reliable than in the flaccid state and markedly facilitated localization and assessment of pathological changes of the cavernosal arteries

L-systems in Geometric Modeling

We show that parametric context-sensitive L-systems with affine geometry interpretation provide a succinct description of some of the most fundamental algorithms of geometric modeling of curves. Examples include the Lane-Riesenfeld algorithm for generating B-splines, the de Casteljau algorithm for generating Bezier curves, and their extensions to rational curves. Our results generalize the previously reported geometric-modeling applications of L-systems, which were limited to subdivision curves.Comment: In Proceedings DCFS 2010, arXiv:1008.127

Decentralized motion planning for multiple mobile robots: The cocktail party model

Abstract. This paper presents an approach for decentralized real-time motion planning for multiple mobile robots operating in a common 2-dimensional environment with unknown stationary obstacles. In our model, a robot can see (sense) the surrounding objects. It knows its current and its target’s position, is able to distinguish a robot from an obstacle, and can assess the instantaneous motion of another robot. Other than this, a robot has no knowledge about the scene or of the paths and objectives of other robots. There is no mutual communication among the robots; no constraints are imposed on the paths or shapes of robots and obstacles. Each robot plans its path toward its target dynamically, based on its current position and the sensory feedback; only the translation component is considered for the planning purposes. With this model, it is clear that no provable motion planning strategy can be designed (a simple example with a dead-lock is discussed); this naturally points to heuristic algorithms. The suggested strategy is based on maze-searching techniques. Computer simulation results are provided that demonstrate good performance and a remarkable robustness of the algorithm (meaning by this a virtual impossibility to create a dead-lock in a “random ” scene). Keywords: mobile robots, autonomous agents, decentralized intelligence, robot motion plannin

Forming Judgments of Attitude Certainty, Intensity, and Importance: The Role of Subjective Experiences

Two studies examined the impact of subjective experiences on reports of attitude certainty, intensity, and importance. In Study 1, participants with moderate or extreme attitudes toward doctor-assisted suicide generated three (easy) or seven (hard) arguments that either supported or countered their opinion toward the issue prior to indicating the strength of their attitude. Participants with moderate attitudes rated their opinions as more intense, personally important, and held with greater certainty when they had generated either a small number of supporting arguments or a large number of opposing arguments. Ratings provided by individuals with extreme attitudes were unaffected by the argument generation task. In Study 2, the impact of ease of recall on strength-related judgments was eliminated when it was rendered nondiagnostic by a misattribution manipulation. Implications of these findings for attitude strength and other judgmental phenomena are discussed.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/68385/2/10.1177_0146167299025007001.pd

Physics, Topology, Logic and Computation: A Rosetta Stone

In physics, Feynman diagrams are used to reason about quantum processes. In the 1980s, it became clear that underlying these diagrams is a powerful analogy between quantum physics and topology: namely, a linear operator behaves very much like a "cobordism". Similar diagrams can be used to reason about logic, where they represent proofs, and computation, where they represent programs. With the rise of interest in quantum cryptography and quantum computation, it became clear that there is extensive network of analogies between physics, topology, logic and computation. In this expository paper, we make some of these analogies precise using the concept of "closed symmetric monoidal category". We assume no prior knowledge of category theory, proof theory or computer science.Comment: 73 pages, 8 encapsulated postscript figure