Experiences of violence among adolescent girls and young women in Nairobi's informal settlements prior to scale-up of the DREAMS Partnership: Prevalence, severity and predictors.

INTRODUCTION: We sought to estimate the prevalence, severity and identify predictors of violence among adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) in informal settlement areas of Nairobi, Kenya, selected for DREAMS (Determined Resilient Empowered AIDS-free, Mentored and Safe) investment. METHODS: Data were collected from 1687 AGYW aged 10-14 years (n = 606) and 15-22 years (n = 1081), randomly selected from a general population census in Korogocho and Viwandani in 2017, as part of an impact evaluation of the "DREAMS" Partnership. For 10-14 year-olds, we measured violence experienced either in the past 6 months or ever using a different set of questions from those used for 15-22 year-olds. Among 15-22 year-olds we measured prevalence of violence, experienced in the past 12 months, using World Health Organization (WHO) definitions for violence typologies. Predictors of violence were identified using multivariable logit models. RESULTS: Among 606 girls aged 10-14 years, about 54% and 7% ever experienced psychological and sexual violence, respectively. About 33%, 16% and 5% experienced psychological, physical and sexual violence in the past 6 months. The 10-14 year old girls who engaged in chores or activities for payment in the past 6 months, or whose family did not have enough food due to lack of money were at a greater risk for violence. Invitation to DREAMS and being a non-Christian were protective. Among 1081 AGYW aged 15-22 years, psychological violence was the most prevalent in the past year (33.1%), followed by physical violence (22.9%), and sexual violence (15.8%). About 7% experienced all three types of violence. Severe physical violence was more prevalent (13.8%) than moderate physical violence (9.2%). Among AGYW aged 15-22 years, being previously married/lived with partner, engaging in employment last month, food insecure were all risk factors for psychological violence. For physical violence, living in Viwandani and being a Muslim were protective; while being previously married or lived with a partner, or sleeping hungry at night during the past 4 weeks were risk factors. The odds of sexual violence were lower among AGYW aged 18-22 years and among Muslims. Engaging in sex and food insecurity increased chances for sexual violence. CONCLUSIONS: Prevalence of recent violence among AGYW is high in this population. This calls for increased effort geared towards addressing drivers of violence as an early entry point of HIV prevention effort in this vulnerable group

Invariance of the WHO violence against women instrument among Kenyan adolescent girls and young women: Bayesian psychometric modeling

Introduction To make valid comparisons across groups, a measurement instrument needs to be measurement invariant across those groups. The present study evaluates measurement invariance for experience of violence among adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) in two informal settlements in Nairobi, Kenya. Methods We used survey data collected from 1,081 AGYW aged 15-22 years from two Nairobi's informal settlements of Korogocho (n = 617) and Viwandani (n = 464) in 2017 through DREAMS (an initiative aimed at reducing HIV incidence among AGYW with a core package of evidence-based interventions) impact evaluation project. Experience of violence was measured using the 15-item WHO's violence against women instrument, and factorial (non)invariance assessed within exploratory structural equation modeling (ESEM) framework. Cross-group measurement invariance was assessed using Bayesian Multiple Indicator Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model across site, age groups, self-reported invitation to participate in DREAMS, marital status, currently in school, education level, religion, ethnic groups, ever had sex, slept hungry at night past 4 weeks, and wealth index.ResultsThe mean and median ages of the AGYW were 17.9 years and 17 years, respectively. About 59% reported having had sex and 58% of AGYW were in school. The percentage reporting each act of violence varied from 1.6% ("attacked you with a weapon") to 26.5% ("insult you or make you feel bad about yourself"). About 44% (n = 474) of participants experienced ≥1 acts of violence, and 2.7% (n = 29) experienced at least half of the 15 acts. The structure underlying the 15 items was configurally similar to that proposed by WHO, with three factors reflecting either psychological, physical, or sexual violence. Noninvariance was detected for five items-spread across the three domains. Three of five items showed noninvariance only for sleeping hungry at night in the past 4 weeks. As the majority of items did not show evidence of noninvariance, differences in latent mean scores likely reflect actual differences and may not be attributable to measurement artifacts. Conclusions Using state-of-the-art statistical techniques on a widely used instrument for measuring exposure to violence among women, this study provides support for the subscales of psychological, physical and sexual violence in a Kenyan AGYW population. The instrument supports comparisons across groups within this population. This is crucial when comparing violence against girls/women prevalence rates and to understand challenges and exchange strategies to reduce abuse or violence experienced by AGYW, or women in general

The effect of participant nonresponse on HIV prevalence estimates in a population-based survey in two informal settlements in Nairobi city

BACKGROUND: Participant nonresponse in an HIV serosurvey can affect estimates of HIV prevalence. Nonresponse can arise from a participant's refusal to provide a blood sample or the failure to trace a sampled individual. In a serosurvey conducted by the African Population and Health Research Center and Kenya Medical Research Centre in the slums of Nairobi, 43% of sampled individuals did not provide a blood sample. This paper describes selective participation in the serosurvey and estimates bias in HIV prevalence figures. METHODS: The paper uses data derived from an HIV serosurvey nested in an on-going demographic surveillance system. Nonresponse was assessed using logistic regression and multiple imputation methods to impute missing data for HIV status using a set of common variables available for all sampled participants. RESULTS: Age, residence, high mobility, wealth, and ethnicity were independent predictors of a sampled individual not being contacted. Individuals aged 30-34 years, females, individuals from the Kikuyu and Kamba ethnicity, married participants, and residents of Viwandani were all less likely to accept HIV testing when contacted. Although men were less likely to be contacted, those found were more willing to be tested compared to females. The overall observed HIV prevalence was overestimated by 2%. The observed prevalence for male participants was underestimated by about 1% and that for females was overestimated by 3%. These differences were small and did not affect the overall estimate substantially as the observed estimates fell within the confidence limits of the corrected prevalence estimate. CONCLUSIONS: Nonresponse in the HIV serosurvey in the two informal settlements was high, however, the effect on overall prevalence estimate was minimal

The Conundrum of Low COVID-19 Mortality Burden in sub-Saharan Africa: Myth or Reality?

The burden of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has been substantially lower compared to other regions of the world. Extensive morbidity and mortality were not observed among countries in SSA during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. To explain this phenomenon, several hypotheses have been formulated, including the low median age of the population in most SSA countries, lack of long-term care facilities, cross-protection from other local coronaviruses, insufficient testing and reporting resulting in an undercounting of COVID-related deaths, genetic risk factors, or the benefit of early lockdowns that were extensive in many SSA countries. Early lockdowns in SSA have been some of the strictest and resulted in devastating economic and social consequences and increased mortality from other health-related problems including maternal deaths. We review the literature and rationale supporting the various hypotheses that have been put forward to account for relatively low hospitalization and death rates for COVID-19 in SSA. We conclude that the strongest evidence would support the demographic age structure with a very low median age as the primary factor in leading to the low mortality seen in the first wave of the pandemic. The impact of new variants of concern in SSA raises the risk of more severe waves. Nevertheless, furthering the understanding of the underlying explanations for the low morbidity and mortality seen across SSA countries may allow the adoption of unique strategies for limiting the spread of COVID-19 without the need for stringent lockdowns

Trends and risk factors for non-communicable diseases mortality in Nairobi slums (2008–2017)

Introduction: Tracking progress in reaching global targets for reducing premature mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) requires accurately collected population based longitudinal data. However, most African countries lack such data because of weak or non-existent civil registration systems. We used data from the Nairobi Urban Health and Demographic Surveillance System (NUDSS) to estimate NCD mortality trends over time and to explore the determinants of NCD mortality. Methods: Deaths identified in the NUHDSS were followed up with a verbal autopsy to determine the signs and symptoms preceding the death. Causes of death were then assigned using InSilicoVA algorithm. We calculated the rates of NCD mortality in the whole NUHDSS population between 2008 and 2017, looking at how these changed over time. We then merged NCD survey data collected in 2008, which contains information on potential determinants of NCD mortality in a sub-sample of the NUHDSS population, with follow up information from the full NUHDSS including whether any of the participants died of an NCD or non-NCD cause. Poisson regression models were used to identify independent risk factors (broadly categorized as socio-demographic, behavioural and physiological) for NCD mortality, as well as non-NCD mortality. Results: In the total NUHDSS population of adults age 18 and over, 23% were assigned an NCD as the most likely cause of death. There was evidence that NCD mortality decreased over the study period, with rates of NCD mortality dropping from 1.32 per 1000 person years in 2008–10 (95% CI: 1.13–1.54) to 0.93 per 1000 person years in 2014–17 (95% CI: 0.80–1.08). Of 5115 individuals who participated in the NCD survey in 2008, 421 died during the follow-up period of which 43% were attributed to NCDs. Increasing age, lower education levels, ever smoking and having high blood pressure were identified as independent determinants of NCD mortality in multivariate analyses. Conclusion: We found that NCDs account for one-quarter of mortality in Nairobi slums, although we document a reduction in the rate of NCD mortality over time. This may be attributed to increased surveillance and introduction of population-wide NCD interventions and health system improvements from research activities in the slums. To achieve further decline there is a need to strengthen health systems to respond to NCD care and prevention along with addressing social factors such as education

Impact of DREAMS interventions on experiences of violence among adolescent girls and young women: Findings from population-based cohort studies in Kenya and South Africa

DREAMS aims to reduce HIV incidence among adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) by tackling drivers of HIV risk including gender-based violence. We evaluate the impact of DREAMS on recent experiences of violence perpetuated by men against AGYW. AGYW cohorts were randomly selected from demographic platforms in South Africa (rural KwaZulu-Natal) and Kenya (Nairobi informal settlements and rural Gem sub-county). AGYW aged 13-22 years were enrolled in 2017 (Nairobi, KwaZulu-Natal) or 2018 (Gem), with annual follow-up to 2019. We described proportions of AGYW who self-reported experiences of violence perpetrated by males in the 12 months preceding the interview, overall and by form (physical, sexual, emotional). We investigated associations with DREAMS (invitation to participate during 2017-2018) through multivariable propensity score-adjusted logistic regression and estimated the causal effect of DREAMS on experiences of violence, under counter-factual scenarios in which all versus no AGYW were DREAMS beneficiaries. Among 852, 1018 and 1712 AGYW followed-up in 2019 in Nairobi, Gem and KZN, respectively, proportions reporting any violence in 2019 were higher in Nairobi (29%) than Gem (18%) and KwaZulu-Natal (19%). By sub-type, emotional and physical violence were more frequently reported than sexual violence. We found no evidence of an impact attributable to DREAMS on overall levels of violence, in any setting. Nor was there evidence of impact on sub-types of violence, with one exception: an increase in physical violence in Nairobi if all, versus no, AGYW were DREAMS beneficiaries (16% vs 11%; +5% difference [95% CI: +0.2%, +10.0%]). Experiences of gender-based violence were common among AGYW, especially in urban settings, and DREAMS had no measurable impact on reducing violence within three years of implementation. Violence prevention programming that reaches more men and the broader community, sustained for longer periods, may yield greater gains in violence reduction than AGYW-focused programming. Additionally, more investment in implementation research is needed to bridge trial-based study findings from efficacy to population-level effectiveness

Impact of the DREAMS interventions on educational attainment among adolescent girls and young women: Causal analysis of a prospective cohort in urban Kenya.

BACKGROUND: DREAMS promotes a comprehensive HIV prevention approach to reduce HIV incidence among adolescent girls and young women (AGYW). One pathway that DREAMS seeks to impact is to support AGYW to stay in school and achieve secondary education. We assessed the impact of DREAMS on educational outcomes among AGYW in Nairobi, Kenya. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In two informal settlements in Nairobi, 1081 AGYW aged 15-22 years were randomly selected in 2017 and followed-up to 2019. AGYW reporting invitation to participate in DREAMS during 2017-18 were classified as "DREAMS beneficiaries". Our main outcome was being in school and/or completed lower secondary school in 2019. We used multivariable logistic regression to quantify the association between being a DREAMS beneficiary and the outcome; and a causal inference framework to estimate proportions achieving the outcome if all, versus no, AGYW were DREAMS beneficiaries, adjusting for the propensity to be a DREAMS beneficiary. Of AGYW enrolled in 2017, 79% (852/1081) were followed-up to 2019. In unadjusted analysis, DREAMS beneficiaries had higher attainment than non-beneficiaries (85% vs 75% in school or completed lower secondary school, Odds Ratio (OR) = 1.9; 95%CI: 1.3,2.8). The effect weakened with adjustment for age and other confounders, (adjusted OR = 1.4; 95%CI: 0.9,2.4). From the causal analysis, evidence was weak for an impact of DREAMS (estimated 83% vs 79% in school or completed lower secondary school, if all vs no AGYW were beneficiaries, difference = 4%; 95%CI: -2,11%). Among AGYW out of school at baseline, the estimated differences were 21% (95%CI: -3,43%) among 15-17 year olds; and 4% (95%CI: -8,17%) among 18-22 year olds. CONCLUSIONS: DREAMS had a modest impact on educational attainment among AGYW in informal settlements in Kenya, by supporting both retention and re-enrolment in school. Larger impact might be achieved if more AGYW were reached with educational subsidies, alongside other DREAMS interventions

Are slum dwellers at heightened risk of HIV infection than other urban residents? Evidence from population-based HIV prevalence surveys in Kenya

In 2008, the global urban population surpassed the rural population and by 2050 more than 6 billion will be living in urban centres. A growing body of research has reported on poor health outcomes among the urban poor but not much is known about HIV prevalence among this group. A survey of nearly 3000 men and women was conducted in two Nairobi slums in Kenya between 2006 and 2007, where respondents were tested for HIV status. In addition, data from the 2008/2009 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey were used to compare HIV prevalence between slum residents and those living in other urban and rural areas. The results showed strong intra-urban differences. HIV was 12% among slum residents compared with 5% and 6% among non-slum urban and rural residents, respectively. Generally, men had lower HIV prevalence than women although in the slums the gap was narrower. Among women, sexual experience before the age of 15 compared with after 19 years was associated with 62% higher odds of being HIV positive. There was ethnic variation in patterns of HIV infection although the effect depended on the current place of residence

Reaching early adolescents with a complex intervention for HIV prevention: findings from a cohort study to evaluate DREAMS in two informal settlements in Nairobi, Kenya.

BACKGROUND: The DREAMS Partnership promotes combination HIV prevention among adolescent girls and young women. We examined the extent to which DREAMS interventions reached early adolescent girls (EAG; aged 10-14 years) in two informal settlements in Nairobi, and the characteristics of those reached, after 3 years of implementation. METHODS: We utilized three data rounds from a randomly-sampled cohort of EAG established in 2017 in Korogocho and Viwandani informal settlements where DREAMS interventions were implemented. Interventions were classified as individual or contextual-level, with individual interventions further categorised as primary (prioritised for this age group), or secondary. We summarised self-reported invitation to participate in DREAMS, and uptake of eight interventions that were supported by DREAMS, during 2017-2019. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify individual and household characteristics associated with invitation to DREAMS and uptake of primary interventions. RESULTS: Data were available for 606, 516 (retention rate of 85%) and 494 (82%) EAG in 2017, 2018 and 2019, respectively. Proportions invited to DREAMS increased from 49% in 2017, to 77% by 2018, and to 88% by 2019. School-based HIV and violence prevention, and HIV testing and counselling were the most accessed interventions (both at 82%). Cumulative uptake of interventions was higher among those invited to participate in DREAMS compared to those never invited, particularly for new interventions such as social asset building and financial capability training. Contextual-level interventions were accessed infrequently. Most of those invited both in 2017 and 2018 accessed ≥3 interventions (96%), and 55% received all three primary interventions by 2019. CONCLUSIONS: Uptake of DREAMS interventions among a representative sample of EAG was high and quickly increased over the implementation period. The majority accessed multiple interventions, indicating that it is feasible to integrate and deliver a package of interventions to EAG in a challenging informal context

Early impact of the DREAMS partnership on young women's knowledge of their HIV status: causal analysis of population-based surveys in Kenya and South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Knowledge of one's HIV status is the gateway to treatment and prevention, but remains low among young people. We investigated the early impact (2016-2017) of Determined, Resilient, Empowered, AIDS-free, Mentored and Safe (DREAMS), a multisectoral HIV prevention package, on knowledge of HIV status among adolescent girls and young women (AGYW). METHODS: In 2017, randomly selected AGYW were enrolled into surveys, N=1081 aged 15-22 years in Nairobi slum settlements, and N=2174 aged 13-22 years in rural KwaZulu-Natal. We estimated the causal effect of being a DREAMS beneficiary on knowledge of HIV status (those who self-reported as HIV-positive or tested HIV-negative in the past year), accounting for an AGYW's propensity to be a DREAMS beneficiary. RESULTS: In Nairobi, knowledge of HIV status was higher among DREAMS beneficiaries compared with non-beneficiaries (92% vs 69%, adjusted OR=8.7; 95% CI 5.8 to 12.9), with DREAMS predicted to increase the outcome by 28%, from 65% if none were a DREAMS beneficiary to 93% if all were beneficiaries. The increase attributable to DREAMS was larger among younger participants: 32% and 23% among those aged 15-17 and 18-22 years, respectively. In KwaZulu-Natal, knowledge of status was higher among DREAMS beneficiaries aged 13-17 years (37% vs 26% among non-beneficiaries), with a 9% difference due to DREAMS (95% CI 4.8% to 14.4%), and no evidence of effect among 18-22 years (-2.8%; 95% CI -11.1% to 5.7%). CONCLUSION: DREAMS substantially increased knowledge of HIV status among AGYW in Nairobi, and among younger but not older AGYW in KwaZulu-Natal. Adolescent girls can be reached early (before age 18) with community-based HIV testing programmes in diverse high-prevalence settings, with a large impact on the proportion who know their HIV status