Stable isotopes in bivalves as indicators of nutrient source in coastal waters in the Bocas del Toro Archipelago, Panama

To examine N-isotope ratios (15N/14N) in tissues and shell organic matrix of bivalves as a proxy for natural and anthropogenic nutrient fluxes in coastal environments, Pinctada imbricata, Isognomon alatus, and Brachidontes exustusbivalves were live-collected and analyzed from eight sites in Bocas del Toro, Panama. Sites represent a variety of coastal environments, including more urbanized, uninhabited, riverine, and oceanic sites. Growth under differing environmental conditions is confirmed by δ18O values, with open ocean Escudo de Veraguas shells yielding the highest average δ18O (−1.0‰) value and freshwater endmember Rio Guarumo the lowest (−1.7‰). At all sites there is no single dominant source of organic matter contributing to bivalve δ15N and δ13C values. Bivalve δ15N and δ13C values likely represent a mixture of mangrove and seagrass N and C, although terrestrial sources cannot be ruled out. Despite hydrographic differences between end-members, we see minimal δ15N and δ13C difference between bivalves from the river-influenced Rio Guarumo site and those from the oceanic Escudo de Veraguas site, with no evidence for N from open-ocean phytoplankton in the latter. Populated sites yield relative 15N enrichments suggestive of anthropogenic nutrient input, but low δ15N values overall make this interpretation equivocal. Lastly, δ15N values of tissue and shell organic matrix correlate significantly for pterioideans P. imbricata and I. alatus. Thus for these species, N isotope studies of historical and fossil shells should provide records of ecology of past environments

Natural experiments and long-term monitoring are critical to understand and predict marine host-microbe ecology and evolution

© The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Leray, M., Wilkins, L. G. E., Apprill, A., Bik, H. M., Clever, F., Connolly, S. R., De Leon, M. E., Duffy, J. E., Ezzat, L., Gignoux-Wolfsohn, S., Herre, E. A., Kaye, J. Z., Kline, D. I., Kueneman, J. G., McCormick, M. K., McMillan, W. O., O’Dea, A., Pereira, T. J., Petersen, J. M., Petticord, D. F., Torchin, M. E., Thurber, R. V., Videvall, E., Wcislo, W. T., Yuen, B., Eisen, J. A. . Natural experiments and long-term monitoring are critical to understand and predict marine host-microbe ecology and evolution. Plos Biology, 19(8), (2021): e3001322, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.3001322.Marine multicellular organisms host a diverse collection of bacteria, archaea, microbial eukaryotes, and viruses that form their microbiome. Such host-associated microbes can significantly influence the host’s physiological capacities; however, the identity and functional role(s) of key members of the microbiome (“core microbiome”) in most marine hosts coexisting in natural settings remain obscure. Also unclear is how dynamic interactions between hosts and the immense standing pool of microbial genetic variation will affect marine ecosystems’ capacity to adjust to environmental changes. Here, we argue that significantly advancing our understanding of how host-associated microbes shape marine hosts’ plastic and adaptive responses to environmental change requires (i) recognizing that individual host–microbe systems do not exist in an ecological or evolutionary vacuum and (ii) expanding the field toward long-term, multidisciplinary research on entire communities of hosts and microbes. Natural experiments, such as time-calibrated geological events associated with well-characterized environmental gradients, provide unique ecological and evolutionary contexts to address this challenge. We focus here particularly on mutualistic interactions between hosts and microbes, but note that many of the same lessons and approaches would apply to other types of interactions.Financial support for the workshop was provided by grant GBMF5603 (https://doi.org/10.37807/GBMF5603) from the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation (W.T. Wcislo, J.A. Eisen, co-PIs), and additional funding from the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute and the Office of the Provost of the Smithsonian Institution (W.T. Wcislo, J.P. Meganigal, and R.C. Fleischer, co-PIs). JP was supported by a WWTF VRG Grant and the ERC Starting Grant 'EvoLucin'. LGEW has received funding from the European Union’s Framework Programme for Research and Innovation Horizon 2020 (2014-2020) under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie Grant Agreement No. 101025649. AO was supported by the Sistema Nacional de Investigadores (SENACYT, Panamá). A. Apprill was supported by NSF award OCE-1938147. D.I. Kline, M. Leray, S.R. Connolly, and M.E. Torchin were supported by a Rohr Family Foundation grant for the Rohr Reef Resilience Project, for which this is contribution #2. This is contribution #85 from the Smithsonian’s MarineGEO and Tennenbaum Marine Observatories Network.

Formation of the Isthmus of Panama

The formation of the Isthmus of Panama stands as one of the greatest natural events of the Cenozoic, driving profound biotic transformations on land and in the oceans. Some recent studies suggest that the Isthmus formed manymillions of years earlier than the widely recognized age of approximately 3 million years ago (Ma), a result that if true would revolutionize our understanding of environmental, ecological, and evolutionary change across the Americas. To bring clarity to the question of when the Isthmus of Panama formed, we provide an exhaustive review and reanalysis of geological, paleontological, and molecular records. These independent lines of evidence converge upon a cohesive narrative of gradually emerging land and constricting seaways,withformationof theIsthmus of Panama sensustricto around 2.8 Ma. The evidence used to support an older isthmus is inconclusive, and we caution against the uncritical acceptance of an isthmus before the Pliocene.Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Muse

Geohistorical insights into marine functional connectivity

Marine functional connectivity (MFC) refers to the flows of organic matter, genes, and energy that are caused by the active and passive movements of marine organisms. Occurring at various temporal and spatial scales, MFC is a dynamic, constantly evolving global ecological process, part of overall ecological connectivity, but with its own distinct and specific patterns. Geological and historical archives of changes in the distributions, life histories, and migration of species can provide baselines for deciphering the long-term trends (decadal to millions of years) and variability of MFC. In this food-for-thought paper, we identify the different types of geohistorical data that can be used to study past MFC. We propose resources that are available for such work. Finally, we offer a roadmap outlining the most appropriate approaches for analysing and interpreting these data, the biases and limitations involved, and what we consider to be the primary themes for future research in this field. Overall, we demonstrate how, despite differences in norms and limitations between disciplines, valuable data on ecological and societal change can be extracted from geological and historical archives, and be used to understand changes of MFC through time

Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks

The United States COVID-19 Forecast Hub dataset

Academic researchers, government agencies, industry groups, and individuals have produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage these forecasts, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) partnered with an academic research lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst to create the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Launched in April 2020, the Forecast Hub is a dataset with point and probabilistic forecasts of incident cases, incident hospitalizations, incident deaths, and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 at county, state, and national, levels in the United States. Included forecasts represent a variety of modeling approaches, data sources, and assumptions regarding the spread of COVID-19. The goal of this dataset is to establish a standardized and comparable set of short-term forecasts from modeling teams. These data can be used to develop ensemble models, communicate forecasts to the public, create visualizations, compare models, and inform policies regarding COVID-19 mitigation. These open-source data are available via download from GitHub, through an online API, and through R packages

Respuesta ambiental en el Pacífico frente a la subducción de la dorsal asísmica de Cocos (Panamá y Costa Rica)

Environmental response in the Pacific to aseismic Cocos Ridge subduction (Panama and Costa Rica). The evolution of the marine communities along the Pacific coast of Central America, may have changed in response to the formation of the Isthmus of Panama. To evaluate the effect of the Aseismic Cocos Ridge (DAC) subduction on the marine benthic communities, we reconstructed benthic assemblages from Neogene fossiliferous formations in Burica and Nicoya peninsulas of Panama and Costa Rica. Paleoecological and paleoenvironmental conditions were reconstructed by comparing community structure from bulk fossil samples with dredge collections from modern Tropical American seas, using principal component analysis. Our results indicate that during the early Pliocene, before the closing of the Isthmus, some oceanic islands existed with moderate upwelling in the Burica region. After the closure, during the late Pliocene and early Pleistocene the collision of the DAC caused an uplift of the seafloor, where water depth of 2 300m became shallow waters of less than 40m depth. Meanwhile, upwelling intensified in the open ocean the uplift that had formed small islands in coastal areas of Burica, creating protected areas and limiting the upwelling effect that was given in open ocean. The subduction of the DAC continued until the islands were joined to the mainland and gradually disappeared, allowing the return of the upwelling. During the middle Pleistocene a second process of accelerated uplift with speeds of 8m/1 000 years provoked again the elevation of the seafloor and later the elevation of the Talamanca Range. The new range formed a barrier that blocked the passage of the Trade winds, created new ecological conditions and optimized and allowed the growth of the best coral reefs in the coasts of the tropical Eastern Pacific (POT) between Panama and Costa Rica.Con el fin de evaluar el efecto de la Subducción de la Dorsal Asísmica de Cocos (DAC) durante las etapas finales de la formación del Istmo. Realizamos muestreos con bultos en afloramientos fosilíferos en las penínsulas de Burica y Nicoya. Las condiciones paleoecológicas y paleoambientales fueron reconstruidas a partir de la comparación entre la estructura de las comunidades fósiles, con las comunidades modernas dragadas de los mares de Panamá, usando análisis de componentes principales. Los resultados indican que antes del cierre del Istmo, existieron islas oceánicas y un afloramiento moderado en Burica. Posterior al cierre, el choque de la DAC provocó la elevación del fondo marino y las aguas que se encontraban a 2 300m pasaron a 40m. El afloramiento se intensificaba en mar abierto pero la dorsal había formado islas en Burica que limitaban el efecto del afloramiento en la costa. La subducción de la DAC continuó y las islas se unieron gradualmente a tierra firme y desaparecieron, permitiendo el afloramiento. Durante el Pleistoceno medio un segundo proceso de levantamiento acelerado continuó elevando el fondo marino y formó la Cordillera de Talamanca. La cordillera creó una barrera que bloqueó el paso de los vientos Alisios y originó condiciones ecológicas y optimas que permiten el crecimiento de los mejores arrecifes de coral costeros del Pacífico oriental tropical (POT) entre Panamá y Costa Rica

Isotopes from fossil coronulid barnacle shells record evidence of migration in multiple Pleistocene whale populations

Migration is an integral feature of modern mysticete whale ecology, and the demands of migration may have played a key role in shaping mysticete evolutionary history. Constraining when migration became established and assessing how it has changed through time may yield valuable insight into the evolution of mysticete whales and the oceans in which they lived. However, there are currently few data which directly assess prehistoric mysticete migrations. Here we show that calcite δ18O profiles of two species of modern whale barnacles (coronulids) accurately reflect the known migration routes of their host whales. We then analyze well-preserved fossil coronulids from three different locations along the eastern Pacific coast, finding that δ18O profiles from these fossils exhibit trends and ranges similar to modern specimens. Our results demonstrate that migration is an ancient behavior within the humpback and gray whale lineages and that multiple Pleistocene populations were undertaking migrations of an extent similar to those of the present day

RADReef: A global Holocene Reef Rate of Accretion Dataset

Abstract Reef cores are a powerful tool for investigating temporal changes in reef communities. Radiometric dating facilitates the determination of vertical accretion rates, which has allowed for examination of local-regional controlling factors, such as subsidence and sea level changes. Coral reefs must grow at sufficient rates to keep up with sea level rise, or risk ‘drowning.’ As sea level is expected to rise significantly in the next 100 years and beyond, it is important to understand whether reefs will be able to survive. Historical records of reef accretion rates extracted from cores provide valuable insights into extrinsic controlling factors of reef growth and are instrumental in helping predict if future reefs can accrete at rates needed to overcome predicted sea level changes. While extensive research exists at local and regional scales, limited attention has been given to identifying global patterns and drivers. To address this, we present “RADReef”: A global dataset of dated Holocene reef cores. RADReef serves as a foundation for further research on past, present and future reef accretion

Isthminia panamensis, a new fossil inioid (Mammalia, Cetacea) from the Chagres Formation of Panama and the evolution of ‘river dolphins’ in the Americas

In contrast to dominant mode of ecological transition in the evolution of marine mammals, different lineages of toothed whales (Odontoceti) have repeatedly invaded freshwater ecosystems during the Cenozoic era. The so-called ‘river dolphins’ are now recognized as independent lineages that converged on similar morphological specializations (e.g., longirostry). In South America, the two endemic ‘river dolphin’ lineages form a clade (Inioidea), with closely related fossil inioids from marine rock units in the South Pacific and North Atlantic oceans. Here we describe a new genus and species of fossil inioid, Isthminia panamensis, gen. et sp. nov. from the late Miocene of Panama. The type and only known specimen consists of a partial skull, mandibles, isolated teeth, a right scapula, and carpal elements recovered from the Piña Facies of the Chagres Formation, along the Caribbean coast of Panama. Sedimentological and associated fauna from the Piña Facies point to fully marine conditions with high planktonic productivity about 6.1–5.8 million years ago (Messinian), pre-dating the final closure of the Isthmus of Panama. Along with ecomorphological data, we propose that Isthminia was primarily a marine inhabitant, similar to modern oceanic delphinoids. Phylogenetic analysis of fossil and living inioids, including new codings for Ischyrorhynchus, an enigmatic taxon from the late Miocene of Argentina, places Isthminia as the sister taxon to Inia, in a broader clade that includes Ischyrorhynchus and Meherrinia, a North American fossil inioid. This phylogenetic hypothesis complicates the possible scenarios for the freshwater invasion of the Amazon River system by stem relatives of Inia, but it remains consistent with a broader marine ancestry for Inioidea. Based on the fossil record of this group, along with Isthminia, we propose that a marine ancestor of Inia invaded Amazonia during late Miocene eustatic sea-level highs