Testing Creditor Moral Hazard in Sovereign Bond Markets: A Unified Theoretical Approach and Empirical Evidence

This paper critically evaluates the existing empirical literature on creditor moral hazard in sovereign bond markets, proposes a unified theoretical approach to test for IMF-induced creditor moral hazard, and provides empirical evidence, using daily sovereign bond market spreads of Indonesia and Korea. The results suggest that IMF-related news regarding program negotiations and approval may be associated with creditor moral hazard, but their impact on spreads is short-lived, indicating that creditor moral hazard could be best described as a short-run phenomenon.Creditor moral hazard, financial markets, the IMF, and news

A Survival Analysis of Islamic and Conventional Banks

Are Islamic banks inherently more stable than conventional banks? We address this question by applying a survival analysis based on the Cox proportional hazard model to a comprehensive sample of 421 banks in 20 Middle and Far Eastern countries from 1995 to 2010. By comparing the failure risk for both bank types, we find that Islamic banks have a significantly lower risk of failure than that of their conventional peers. This lower risk is based both unconditionally and conditionally on bank-specific (microeconomic) variables as well as macroeconomic and market structure variables. Our findings indicate that the design and implementation of early warning systems for bank failure should recognize the distinct risk profiles of the two bank types

IMF-Supported Programmes in Transition Economies: Are They Effective?

We review IMF programmes implemented in Bulgaria and Poland during the 1990s and compare their outcomes. Although Poland did not sign new programmes with the Fund after 1994, IMF programmes have been in effect in Bulgaria since 1991. We also examine empirically the effectiveness of IMF programmes in reducing the crisis probabilities for foreign exchange, output and inflation crises. We find that IMF programmes have been more effective in Bulgaria, especially in reducing inflation crises, than in Poland. Bulgaria's success may be explained by the signing of the recent currency board arrangement after the 1997 financial crisis and the gradual improvement in the country's political environment over time. The results for Poland may be driven by the impact of the initial shock associated with the transition process, including hyperinflation, which coincided with the implementation of fund programmes. Overall, our results support the view that a stable political environment is a key factor for the effectiveness of fund programmes. Comparative Economic Studies (2005) 47, 23–40. doi:10.1057/palgrave.ces.8100090

Adoption, Implementation and Impact of IMF Programmes: A Review of the Issues and Evidence1

This paper evaluates the literature on the lending programmes of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The first section deals with the initiation of a Fund program, which has been shown to be influenced by political and institutional variables. A second focus of research analyses the design and implementation of Fund-supported polices, since many programmes are often not successfully completed. The third issue surveyed is the impact of IMF policies on the economy of the borrowing government. The effect of Fund programmes on private capital flows is also examined. Comparative Economic Studies (2004) 46, 451–467. doi:10.1057/palgrave.ces.8100052