Challenges to estimating vaccine impact using hospitalization data.

Because the real-world impact of new vaccines cannot be known before they are implemented in national programs, post-implementation studies at the population level are critical. Studies based on analysis of hospitalization rates of vaccine-preventable outcomes are typically used for this purpose. However, estimates of vaccine impact based on hospitalization data are particularly prone to confounding, as hospitalization rates are tightly linked to changes in the quality, access and use of the healthcare system, which often occur simultaneously with introduction of new vaccines. Here we illustrate how changes in healthcare delivery coincident with vaccine introduction can influence estimates of vaccine impact, using as an example reductions in infant pneumonia hospitalizations after introduction of the 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) in Brazil. To this end, we explore the effect of changes in several metrics of quality and access to public healthcare on trends in hospitalization rates before (2008-09) and after (2011-12) PCV10 introduction in 2010. Changes in infant pneumonia hospitalization rates following vaccine introduction were significantly associated with concomitant changes in hospital capacity and the fraction of the population using public hospitals. Importantly, reduction of pneumonia hospitalization rates after PCV10 were also associated with the expansion of outpatient services in several Brazilian states, falling more sharply where primary care coverage and the number of health units offering basic and emergency care increased more. We show that adjustments for unrelated (non-vaccine) trends commonly employed by impact studies, such as use of single control outcomes, are not always sufficient for accurate impact assessment. We discuss several ways to identify and overcome such biases, including sensitivity analyses using different denominators to calculate hospitalizations rates and methods that track changes in the outpatient setting. Employing these practices can improve the accuracy of vaccine impact estimates, particularly in evolving healthcare settings typical of low- and middle-income countries

Secondary bacterial infections of buruli ulcer lesions before and after chemotherapy with streptomycin and rifampicin

Buruli ulcer (BU), caused by Mycobacterium ulcerans is a chronic necrotizing skin disease. It usually starts with a subcutaneous nodule or plaque containing large clusters of extracellular acid-fast bacilli. Surrounding tissue is destroyed by the cytotoxic macrolide toxin mycolactone produced by microcolonies of M. ulcerans. Skin covering the destroyed subcutaneous fat and soft tissue may eventually break down leading to the formation of large ulcers that progress, if untreated, over months and years. Here we have analyzed the bacterial flora of BU lesions of three different groups of patients before, during and after daily treatment with streptomycin and rifampicin for eight weeks (SR8) and determined drug resistance of the bacteria isolated from the lesions. Before SR8 treatment, more than 60% of the examined BU lesions were infected with other bacteria, with Staphylococcus aureus and Pseudomonas aeruginosa being the most prominent ones. During treatment, 65% of all lesions were still infected, mainly with P. aeruginosa. After completion of SR8 treatment, still more than 75% of lesions clinically suspected to be infected were microbiologically confirmed as infected, mainly with P. aeruginosa or Proteus miriabilis. Drug susceptibility tests revealed especially for S. aureus a high frequency of resistance to the first line drugs used in Ghana. Our results show that secondary infection of BU lesions is common. This could lead to delayed healing and should therefore be further investigated

High prevalence of potential biases threatens the interpretation of trials in patients with chronic disease

BACKGROUND: The complexity of chronic diseases is a challenge for investigators conducting randomized trials. The causes for this include the often difficult control for confounding, the selection of outcomes from many potentially important outcomes, the risk of missing data with long follow-up and the detection of heterogeneity of treatment effects. Our aim was to assess such aspects of trial design and analysis for four prevalent chronic diseases. METHODS: We included 161 randomized trials on drug and non-drug treatments for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, type 2 diabetes mellitus, stroke and heart failure, which were included in current Cochrane reviews. We assessed whether these trials defined a single outcome or several primary outcomes, statistically compared baseline characteristics to assess comparability of treatment groups, reported on between-group comparisons, and we also assessed how they handled missing data and whether appropriate methods for subgroups effects were used. RESULTS: We found that only 21% of all chronic disease trials had a single primary outcome, whereas 33% reported one or more primary outcomes. Two of the fifty-one trials that tested for statistical significance of baseline characteristics adjusted the comparison for a characteristic that was significantly different. Of the 161 trials, 10% reported a within-group comparison only; 17% (n = 28) of trials reported how missing data were handled (50% (n = 14) carried forward last values, 27% (n = 8) performed a complete case analysis, 13% (n = 4) used a fixed value imputation and 10% (n = 3) used more advanced methods); and 27% of trials performed a subgroup analysis but only 23% of them (n = 10) reported an interaction test. Drug trials, trials published after wide adoption of the CONSORT (CONsolidated Standards of Reporting Trials) statement (2001 or later) and trials in journals with higher impact factors were more likely to report on some of these aspects of trial design and analysis. CONCLUSION: Our survey showed that an alarmingly large proportion of chronic disease trials do not define a primary outcome, do not use appropriate methods for subgroup analyses, or use naïve methods to handle missing data, if at all. As a consequence, biases are likely to be introduced in many trials on widely prescribed treatments for patients with chronic disease

A comparative population-based study of prostate cancer incidence and mortality rates in Singapore, Sweden and Geneva, Switzerland from 1973 to 2006

10.1186/1471-2407-12-222BMC Cancer12-BCMA

Giant breast tumors: Surgical management of phyllodes tumors, potential for reconstructive surgery and a review of literature

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Phyllodes tumors are biphasic fibroepithelial neoplasms of the breast. While the surgical management of these relatively uncommon tumors has been addressed in the literature, few reports have commented on the surgical approach to tumors greater than ten centimeters in diameter – the giant phyllodes tumor.</p> <p>Case presentation</p> <p>We report two cases of giant breast tumors and discuss the techniques utilized for pre-operative diagnosis, tumor removal, and breast reconstruction. A review of the literature on the surgical management of phyllodes tumors was performed.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Management of the giant phyllodes tumor presents the surgeon with unique challenges. The majority of these tumors can be managed by simple mastectomy. Axillary lymph node metastasis is rare, and dissection should be limited to patients with pathologic evidence of tumor in the lymph nodes.</p

Assessing the Effectiveness of a Community Intervention for Monkeypox Prevention in the Congo Basin

Human monkeypox is a potentially severe illness that begins with a high fever soon followed by the development of a smallpox-like rash. Both monkeypox and smallpox are caused by infection with viruses in the genus Orthopoxvirus. But smallpox, which only affected humans, has been eradicated, whereas monkeypox continues to occur when humans come into contact with infected animals. There are currently no drugs specifically available for the treatment of monkeypox, and the use of vaccines for prevention is limited due to safety concerns. Therefore, monkeypox prevention depends on diminishing human contact with infected animals and preventing person-to-person spread of the virus. The authors describe a film-based method for community outreach intended to increase monkeypox knowledge among residents of communities in the Republic of the Congo. Outreach was performed to ∼23,600 rural Congolese. The effectiveness of the outreach was evaluated using a sample of individuals who attended small-group sessions. The authors found that among the participants, the ability to recognize monkeypox symptoms and the willingness to take ill family members to the hospital was significantly increased after seeing the films. In contrast, the willingness to deter some high-risk behaviors, such as eating animal carcasses found in the forest, remained fundamentally unchanged

Chapter 8: Meta-analysis of Test Performance When There is a “Gold Standard”

Synthesizing information on test performance metrics such as sensitivity, specificity, predictive values and likelihood ratios is often an important part of a systematic review of a medical test. Because many metrics of test performance are of interest, the meta-analysis of medical tests is more complex than the meta-analysis of interventions or associations. Sometimes, a helpful way to summarize medical test studies is to provide a “summary point”, a summary sensitivity and a summary specificity. Other times, when the sensitivity or specificity estimates vary widely or when the test threshold varies, it is more helpful to synthesize data using a “summary line” that describes how the average sensitivity changes with the average specificity. Choosing the most helpful summary is subjective, and in some cases both summaries provide meaningful and complementary information. Because sensitivity and specificity are not independent across studies, the meta-analysis of medical tests is fundamentaly a multivariate problem, and should be addressed with multivariate methods. More complex analyses are needed if studies report results at multiple thresholds for positive tests. At the same time, quantitative analyses are used to explore and explain any observed dissimilarity (heterogeneity) in the results of the examined studies. This can be performed in the context of proper (multivariate) meta-regressions

Factors associated with nursing home placement of all patients admitted for inpatient rehabilitation in Singapore community hospitals from 1996 to 2005: A disease stratified analysis

10.1371/journal.pone.0082697PLoS ONE812-POLN