Prediction of disability-free survival in healthy older people.

Prolonging survival in good health is a fundamental societal goal. However, the leading determinants of disability-free survival in healthy older people have not been well established. Data from ASPREE, a bi-national placebo-controlled trial of aspirin with 4.7 years median follow-up, was analysed. At enrolment, participants were healthy and without prior cardiovascular events, dementia or persistent physical disability. Disability-free survival outcome was defined as absence of dementia, persistent disability or death. Selection of potential predictors from amongst 25 biomedical, psychosocial and lifestyle variables including recognized geriatric risk factors, utilizing a machine-learning approach. Separate models were developed for men and women. The selected predictors were evaluated in a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model and validated internally by bootstrapping. We included 19,114 Australian and US participants aged ≥65 years (median 74 years, IQR 71.6-77.7). Common predictors of a worse prognosis in both sexes included higher age, lower Modified Mini-Mental State Examination score, lower gait speed, lower grip strength and abnormal (low or elevated) body mass index. Additional risk factors for men included current smoking, and abnormal eGFR. In women, diabetes and depression were additional predictors. The biased-corrected areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for the final prognostic models at 5 years were 0.72 for men and 0.75 for women. Final models showed good calibration between the observed and predicted risks. We developed a prediction model in which age, cognitive function and gait speed were the strongest predictors of disability-free survival in healthy older people.Trial registration Clinicaltrials.gov (NCT01038583)

Prediction of disability-free survival in healthy older people.

Prolonging survival in good health is a fundamental societal goal. However, the leading determinants of disability-free survival in healthy older people have not been well established. Data from ASPREE, a bi-national placebo-controlled trial of aspirin with 4.7 years median follow-up, was analysed. At enrolment, participants were healthy and without prior cardiovascular events, dementia or persistent physical disability. Disability-free survival outcome was defined as absence of dementia, persistent disability or death. Selection of potential predictors from amongst 25 biomedical, psychosocial and lifestyle variables including recognized geriatric risk factors, utilizing a machine-learning approach. Separate models were developed for men and women. The selected predictors were evaluated in a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model and validated internally by bootstrapping. We included 19,114 Australian and US participants aged ≥65 years (median 74 years, IQR 71.6-77.7). Common predictors of a worse prognosis in both sexes included higher age, lower Modified Mini-Mental State Examination score, lower gait speed, lower grip strength and abnormal (low or elevated) body mass index. Additional risk factors for men included current smoking, and abnormal eGFR. In women, diabetes and depression were additional predictors. The biased-corrected areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for the final prognostic models at 5 years were 0.72 for men and 0.75 for women. Final models showed good calibration between the observed and predicted risks. We developed a prediction model in which age, cognitive function and gait speed were the strongest predictors of disability-free survival in healthy older people.Trial registration Clinicaltrials.gov (NCT01038583)

Aspirin-free strategies in cardiovascular disease and cardioembolic stroke prevention.

In patients with manifestations of cardiovascular disease, acetylsalicylic acid (popularly known as aspirin) has been the mainstay of treatment for decades owing to its capacity to reduce the risk of ischaemic events. Accordingly, novel antithrombotic therapies have been traditionally tested on a background of acetylsalicylic acid therapy. Although the adjunctive use of such antithrombotic therapies can potentially further reduce the risk of ischaemic events, these agents are also inevitably associated with an increased risk of bleeding. However, acetylsalicylic acid also increases the risk of bleeding, challenging the paradigm that this agent should remain the cornerstone of antiplatelet treatment when alternative antithrombotic agents are also used. Many antithrombotic compounds are characterized by increased potency and consistent efficacy, which might lessen the need for concomitant acetylsalicylic acid. Accordingly, numerous investigations are testing the hypothesis that acetylsalicylic acid-sparing regimens based on newer antithrombotic agents might have an increased net benefit for individual patients owing to the reduction in bleeding risk, without a trade-off in efficacy. This Review summarizes the state of the art relating to antithrombotic approaches with and without acetylsalicylic acid for the prevention of cardiovascular disease and cardioembolic stroke. Discussion of the scientific rationale, from bench to bedside, for ongoing studies of acetylsalicylic acid-free pharmacological strategies is included