Integrated Assessment of FWLE Nexus Interactions and Potential Synergies and Trade-offs in Europe

Meeting abstractClimate change and socio-economic development will have important implications on the longterm sustainability of natural resources supporting the human and ecological systems globally. These impacts also interact in complex and non-linear ways that transcend beyond traditional sectoral and regional boundaries with cascading and potentially pervasive implications. This is particularly relevant for the food-water-land-ecosystems (FWLE) nexus, as it is fundamental for achieving a number of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). A holistic understanding of the FWLE nexus interactions and associated response to various exogenous drivers is crucial for developing robust cross-sectoral adaptation strategies that facilitate sustainable use and management of finite natural resources under uncertain future changing conditions. This work presents the findings of a landscape-scale simulation of the complex cross-sectoral linkages and interactions between six key land- and water-based sectors in Europe (i.e., agriculture, biodiversity, coasts, forests, urban, and water). The study applies a widely used regional integrated assessment modelling (IAM) tool, taking into account a wide range climate change and socio-economic development scenarios. The results highlight the key climatic and non-climatic drivers of Europe’s future landscape change dynamics, and provide quantitative insights into key FWLE nexus synergies and trade-offs and potential implications for sustainability and the SDGs. It also demonstrates the role of systematic integrated model-based analysis of nexus issues across scenarios and scales, providing a methodological framework that can facilitate future nexus studies

The Safe Development Paradox in Flood Risk Management: A Critical Review

Climate change and continued urban development in flood-prone areas exacerbate flood risks. Flood Risk Management authorities often turn to structural protection measures to minimise losses. However, these measures often lead to infrastructural lock-ins with potential unintended consequences as increased safety can induce increased development, ultimately leading to higher losses in the event of failures of the structural safe-guards in place. This process has been referred to as the Safe Development Paradox: a cross-cutting science-policy-practice challenge that requires a systematic understanding in the context of climate change and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Yet, there are no comprehensive review studies, to date, that summarize the state of knowledge of the Safe Development Paradox. This paper provides the first evidence base through a critical review of the state-of-the-art and quantitative analysis of the peer-reviewed English-language literature since 2000, highlighting key knowledge gaps and issues hindering progress in addressing the Safe Development Paradox. It was identified that current research is compounded by a lack of consistent terminology, limited geographic distribution of case studies, and skewed emphasis on fluvial flooding. The review ends with potential directions across the science, policy, and practice domains for increasing knowledge and tackling the Safe Development Paradox.EPSRC grant number EP/T518116/

An integrated approach for assessing flood impacts due to future climate and socio-economic conditions and the scope of adaptation in Europe

European Commission Seventh Framework Programm

Choices: Future Trade-Offs and Plausible Pathways

Policy development and management of deltas in the Anthropocene involves the consideration of trade-offs and the balancing of positive and negative consequences for delta functions and the societies that rely on them. This assessment outlines policy-driven and spatial trade-offs that dominate the landscape of choice. It highlights examples of such trade-offs using plausible delta futures and the governance choices associated with them. The analysis is based on modelling broad-scale processes and individual adaptive actions. It highlights how policy choices to maximise economic growth can, for example, have unforeseen consequences such as diminished well-being for some populations. Hence the chapter concludes that trade-offs are a crucial governance challenge for future sustainability of deltas

Real‐world treatment patterns and outcomes using terlipressin in 203 patients with the hepatorenal syndrome

Background: Hepatorenal syndrome and acute kidney injury are common complications of decompensated cirrhosis, and terlipressin is recommended as first‐line vasoconstrictor therapy. However, data on its use outside of clinical trials are lacking. / Aims: To assess practice patterns and outcomes around vasoconstrictor use for hepatorenal syndrome in UK hospitals. / Methods: This was a multicentre chart review study. Data were extracted from medical records of patients diagnosed with hepatorenal syndrome and treated by vasoconstrictor drugs between January 2013 and December 2017 at 26 hospitals in the United Kingdom. The primary outcome was improvement of kidney function, defined as complete response (serum creatinine improved to ≤1.5 mg/dL), partial response (serum creatinine reduction of ≥20% but >1.5 mg/dL) and overall response (complete or partial response). Other outcomes included need for dialysis, mortality, liver transplantation and adverse events. / Results: Of the 225 patients included in the analysis, 203 (90%) were treated with terlipressin (median duration, 6 days; range: 2‐24 days). Mean (±standard deviation) serum creatinine at vasopressor initiation was 3.25 ± 1.64 mg/dL. Terlipressin overall response rate was 73%. Overall response was higher in patients with mild acute kidney injury (baseline serum creatinine <2.25 mg/dL), compared to those with moderate (serum creatinine ≥2.25 mg/dL and <3.5 mg/dL) or severe (serum creatinine ≥3.5 mg/dL). Ninety‐day survival was 86% for all patients (93% for overall responders vs 66% for treatment nonresponders, P < 0.0001). / Conclusion: Terlipressin is the most commonly prescribed vasoconstrictor for patients with hepatorenal syndrome in the United Kingdom. Treatment with terlipressin in patients with less severe acute kidney injury (serum creatinine <2.25 mg/dL) was associated with higher treatment responses, and 90‐day survival

Predicting Distribution of Aedes Aegypti and Culex Pipiens Complex, Potential Vectors of Rift Valley Fever Virus in Relation to Disease Epidemics in East Africa.

The East African region has experienced several Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreaks since the 1930s. The objective of this study was to identify distributions of potential disease vectors in relation to disease epidemics. Understanding disease vector potential distributions is a major concern for disease transmission dynamics. DIVERSE ECOLOGICAL NICHE MODELLING TECHNIQUES HAVE BEEN DEVELOPED FOR THIS PURPOSE: we present a maximum entropy (Maxent) approach for estimating distributions of potential RVF vectors in un-sampled areas in East Africa. We modelled the distribution of two species of mosquitoes (Aedes aegypti and Culex pipiens complex) responsible for potential maintenance and amplification of the virus, respectively. Predicted distributions of environmentally suitable areas in East Africa were based on the presence-only occurrence data derived from our entomological study in Ngorongoro District in northern Tanzania. Our model predicted potential suitable areas with high success rates of 90.9% for A. aegypti and 91.6% for C. pipiens complex. Model performance was statistically significantly better than random for both species. Most suitable sites for the two vectors were predicted in central and northwestern Tanzania with previous disease epidemics. Other important risk areas include western Lake Victoria, northern parts of Lake Malawi, and the Rift Valley region of Kenya. Findings from this study show distributions of vectors had biological and epidemiological significance in relation to disease outbreak hotspots, and hence provide guidance for the selection of sampling areas for RVF vectors during inter-epidemic periods

Determinants of low family planning use and high unmet need in Butajira District, South Central Ethiopia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The rapid population growth does not match with available resource in Ethiopia. Though household level family planning delivery has been put in place, the impact of such programs in densely populated rural areas was not studied. The study aims at measuring contraception and unmet need and identifying its determinants among married women.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A total of 5746 married women are interviewed from October to December 2009 in the Butajira Demographic Surveillance Area. Contraceptive prevalence rate and unmet need with their 95% confidence interval is measured among married women in the Butajira district. The association of background characteristics and family planning use is ascertained using crude and adjusted Odds ratio in logistic regression model.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Current contraceptive prevalence rate among married women is 25.4% (95% CI: 24.2, 26.5). Unmet need of contraception is 52.4% of which 74.8% was attributed to spacing and the rest for limiting. Reasons for the high unmet need include commodities' insecurity, religion, and complaints related to providers, methods, diet and work load. Contraception is 2.3 (95% CI: 1.7, 3.2) times higher in urbanites compared to rural highlanders. Married women who attained primary and secondary plus level of education have about 1.3 (95% CI: 1.1, 1.6) and 2 (95% CI: 1.4, 2.9) times more risk to contraception; those with no child death are 1.3 (95% CI: 1.1, 1.5) times more likely to use contraceptives compared to counterparts. Besides, the odds of contraception is 1.3 (95% CI: 1.1, 1.6) and 1.5 (1.1, 2.0) times more likely among women whose partners completed primary and secondary plus level of education. Women discussing about contraception with partners were 2.2 (95% CI: 1.8, 2.7) times more likely to use family planning. Nevertheless, contraception was about 2.6 (95% CI: 2.1, 3.2) more likely among married women whose partners supported the use of family planning.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The local government should focus on increasing educational level. It must also ensure family planning methods security, increase competence of providers, and create awareness on various methods and their side effects to empower women to make an appropriate choice. Emphasis should be given to rural communities.</p

Association between anxiety and non-coding genetic variants of the galanin neuropeptide

Galanin, an inhibitory neuropeptide and cotransmitter has long been known to co-localize with noradrenaline and serotonin in the central nervous system. Several human studies demonstrated altered galanin expression levels in major depressive disorder and anxiety. Pharmacological modulation of galanin signaling and transgenic strategies provide further proof for the involvement of the galanin system in the pathophysiology of mood disorders. Little is known, however, on the dynamic regulation of galanin expression at the transcriptional level. The aim of the present study was to seek genetic association of non-coding single nucleotide variations in the galanin gene with anxiety and depression.Six single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) occurring either in the regulatory 5' or 3' flanking regions or within intronic sequences of the galanin gene have been genotyped with a high-throughput TaqMan OpenArray qPCR system in 526 healthy students (40% males). Depression and anxiety scores were obtained by filling in the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) questionnaire. Data were analyzed by ANCOVA and Bonferroni correction was applied for multiple testing. Linkage disequilibrium (LD) analysis was used to map two haploblocks in the analyzed region.A single-locus and a haplotype genetic association proved to be statistically significant. In single-marker analysis, the T allele of the rs1042577 SNP within the 3' untranslated region of the galanin gene associated with greater levels of anxiety (HADS scores were 7.05±4.0 vs 6.15±.15; p = 0.000407). Haplotype analysis revealed an association of the rs948854 C_rs4432027_C allele combination with anxiety [F(1,1046) = 4.140, p = 0.042141, η2 = 0.004, power = 0.529]. Neither of these associations turned out to be gender-specific. These promoter polymorphisms are supposed to participate in epigenetic regulation of galanin expression by creating potentially methylatable CpG dinucleotides. The functional importance of the rs1042577_T allele remains to be elucidated

Comparative Coastal Risk Index (CCRI): A multidisciplinary risk index for Latin America and the Caribbean

As the world's population grows to a projected 11.2 billion by 2100, the number of people living in low-lying areas exposed to coastal hazards is projected to increase. Critical infrastructure and valuable assets continue to be placed in vulnerable areas, and in recent years, millions of people have been displaced by natural hazards. Impacts from coastal hazards depend on the number of people, value of assets, and presence of critical resources in harm's way. Risks related to natural hazards are determined by a complex interaction between physical hazards, the vulnerability of a society or social-ecological system and its exposure to such hazards. Moreover, these risks are amplified by challenging socioeconomic dynamics, including poorly planned urban development, income inequality, and poverty. This study employs a combination of machine learning clustering techniques (Self Organizing Maps and K-Means) and a spatial index, to assess coastal risks in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) on a comparative scale. The proposed method meets multiple objectives, including the identification of hotspots and key drivers of coastal risk, and the ability to process large-volume multidimensional and multivariate datasets, effectively reducing sixteen variables related to coastal hazards, geographic exposure, and socioeconomic vulnerability, into a single index. Our results demonstrate that in LAC, more than 500,000 people live in areas where coastal hazards, exposure (of people, assets and ecosystems) and poverty converge, creating the ideal conditions for a perfect storm. Hotspot locations of coastal risk, identified by the proposed Comparative Coastal Risk Index (CCRI), contain more than 300,00 people and include: El Oro, Ecuador; Sinaloa, Mexico; Usulutan, El Salvador; and Chiapas, Mexico. Our results provide important insights into potential adaptation alternatives that could reduce the impacts of future hazards. Effective adaptation options must not only focus on developing coastal defenses, but also on improving practices and policies related to urban development, agricultural land use, and conservation, as well as ameliorating socioeconomic conditions