The predictive receiver operating characteristic curve for the joint assessment of the positive and negative predictive values

Binary test outcomes typically result from dichotomizing a continuous test variable, observable or latent. The effect of the threshold for test positivity on test sensitivity and specificity has been studied extensively in receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. However, considerably less attention has been given to the study of the effect of the positivity threshold on the predictive value of a test. In this paper we present methods for the joint study of the positive (PPV) and negative predictive values (NPV) of diagnostic tests. We define the predictive receiver operating characteristic (PROC) curve that consists of all possible pairs of PPV and NPV as the threshold for test positivity varies. Unlike the simple trade-off between sensitivity and specificity exhibited in the ROC curve, the PROC curve displays what is often a complex interplay between PPV and NPV as the positivity threshold changes. We study the monotonicity and other geometric properties of the PROC curve and propose summary measures for the predictive performance of tests. We also formulate and discuss regression models for the estimation of the effects of covariates

Harvesting graphics power for MD simulations

We discuss an implementation of molecular dynamics (MD) simulations on a graphic processing unit (GPU) in the NVIDIA CUDA language. We tested our code on a modern GPU, the NVIDIA GeForce 8800 GTX. Results for two MD algorithms suitable for short-ranged and long-ranged interactions, and a congruential shift random number generator are presented. The performance of the GPU's is compared to their main processor counterpart. We achieve speedups of up to 80, 40 and 150 fold, respectively. With newest generation of GPU's one can run standard MD simulations at 10^7 flops/$.Comment: 12 pages, 5 figures. Submitted to Mol. Si

On the averaging principle for one-frequency systems. An application to satellite motions

This paper is related to our previous works [1][2] on the error estimate of the averaging technique, for systems with one fast angular variable. In the cited references, a general method (of mixed analytical and numerical type) has been introduced to obtain precise, fully quantitative estimates on the averaging error. Here, this procedure is applied to the motion of a satellite in a polar orbit around an oblate planet, retaining only the J_2 term in the multipole expansion of the gravitational potential. To exemplify the method, the averaging errors are estimated for the data corresponding to two Earth satellites; for a very large number of orbits, computation of our estimators is much less expensive than the direct numerical solution of the equations of motion.Comment: LaTeX, 35 pages, 12 figures. The final version published in Nonlinear Dynamic

On the averaging principle for one-frequency systems. Seminorm estimates for the error

We extend some previous results of our work [1] on the error of the averaging method, in the one-frequency case. The new error estimates apply to any separating family of seminorms on the space of the actions; they generalize our previous estimates in terms of the Euclidean norm. For example, one can use the new approach to get separate error estimates for each action coordinate. An application to rigid body under damping is presented. In a companion paper [2], the same method will be applied to the motion of a satellite around an oblate planet.Comment: LaTeX, 23 pages, 4 figures. The final version published in Nonlinear Dynamic

Ariel - Volume 4 Number 6

Editors David A. Jacoby Eugenia Miller Tom Williams Associate Editors Paul Bialas Terry Burt Michael Leo Gail Tenikat Editor Emeritus and Business Manager Richard J. Bonnano Movie Editor Robert Breckenridge Staff Richard Blutstein Mary F. Buechler J.D. Kanofsky Rocket Weber David Maye

Subglacial Water Flow Over an Antarctic Palaeo‐Ice Stream Bed

The subglacial hydrological system exerts a critical control on the dynamic behavior of the overlying ice because its configuration affects the degree of basal lubrication between the ice and the bed. Yet, this component of the glaciological system is notoriously hard to access and observe, particularly over timescales longer than the satellite era. In Antarctica, abundant evidence for past subglacial water flow over former ice-sheet beds exists around the peripheries of the ice sheet including networks of huge channels carved into bedrock (now submarine) on the Pacific margin of West Antarctica. Here, we combine detailed bathymetric investigations of a channel system in Marguerite Trough, a major palaeo-ice stream bed, with numerical hydrological modeling to explore subglacial water accumulation, routing and potential for erosion over decadal-centennial timescales. Detailed channel morphologies from remotely operated vehicle surveys indicate multiple stages of localized incision, and the occurrence of potholes, some gigantic in scale, suggests incision by turbulent water carrying a significant bedload. Further, the modeling indicates that subglacial water is available during deglaciation and was likely released in episodic drainage events, from subglacial lakes, varying in magnitude over time. Our observations support previous assertions that these huge bedrock channel systems were incised over multiple glacial cycles through episodic subglacial lake drainage events; however, here we present a viable pattern for subglacial drainage at times when the ice sheet existed over the continental shelf and was capable of continuing to erode the bedrock substrate

Differential Geometry applied to Acoustics : Non Linear Propagation in Reissner Beams

Although acoustics is one of the disciplines of mechanics, its "geometrization" is still limited to a few areas. As shown in the work on nonlinear propagation in Reissner beams, it seems that an interpretation of the theories of acoustics through the concepts of differential geometry can help to address the non-linear phenomena in their intrinsic qualities. This results in a field of research aimed at establishing and solving dynamic models purged of any artificial nonlinearity by taking advantage of symmetry properties underlying the use of Lie groups. The geometric constructions needed for reduction are presented in the context of the "covariant" approach.Comment: Submitted to GSI2013 - Geometric Science of Informatio

Speeding Strings

There is a class of single trace operators in ${\cal N}=4$ Yang-Mills theory which are related by the AdS/CFT correspondence to classical string solutions. Interesting examples of such solutions corresponding to periodic trajectories of the Neumann system were studied recently. In our paper we study a generalization of these solutions. We consider strings moving with large velocities. We show that the worldsheet of the fast moving string can be considered as a perturbation of the degenerate worldsheet, with the small parameter being the relativistic factor $\sqrt{1-v^2}$. The series expansion in this relativistic factor should correspond to the perturbative expansion in the dual Yang-Mills theory. The operators minimizing the anomalous dimension in the sector with given charges correspond to periodic trajectories in the mechanical system which is closely related to the product of two Neumann systems.Comment: v3: added a reference to the earlier wor

Convergence to equilibrium for the discrete coagulation-fragmentation equations with detailed balance

Under the condition of detailed balance and some additional restrictions on the size of the coefficients, we identify the equilibrium distribution to which solutions of the discrete coagulation-fragmentation system of equations converge for large times, thus showing that there is a critical mass which marks a change in the behavior of the solutions. This was previously known only for particular cases as the generalized Becker-D\"oring equations. Our proof is based on an inequality between the entropy and the entropy production which also gives some information on the rate of convergence to equilibrium for solutions under the critical mass.Comment: 28 page

Long-term outcomes of allogeneic haematopoietic stem cell transplantation for adult cerebral X-linked adrenoleukodystrophy

The adult cerebral inflammatory form of X-linked adrenoleukodystrophy is a rapidly progressive neurodegenerative disease, as devastating as childhood cerebral adrenoleukodystrophy. Allogeneic haematopoietic stem cell transplantation has been demonstrated to provide long-term neurological benefits for boys with the childhood cerebral form, but results in adults are sparse and inconclusive. We analysed data from 14 adult males with adult cerebral adrenoleukodystrophy treated with allogeneic haematopoietic stem cell transplantation on a compassionate basis in four European centres. All presented with cerebral demyelinating lesions and gadolinium enhancement. Median age at diagnosis of adult cerebral adrenoleukodystrophy was 33 years (range 21–48 years). In addition to cerebral inflammation, five patients had established severe motor disability from adrenomyeloneuropathy affecting only the spinal cord and peripheral nerves (Expanded Disability Status Scale score ≥ 6). Eight patients survived (estimated survival 57 ± 13%) with a median follow-up of 65 months (minimum 38 months). Death was directly transplant-/infection-related (n = 3), due to primary disease progression in advanced adult cerebral adrenoleukodystrophy (n = 1), or secondary disease progression (n = 2) after transient multi-organ failure or non-engraftment. Specific complications during stem cell transplantation included deterioration of motor and bladder functions (n = 12) as well as behavioural changes (n = 8). Arrest of progressive cerebral demyelination and prevention of severe loss of neurocognition was achieved in all eight survivors, but deterioration of motor function occurred in the majority (n = 5). Limited motor dysfunction (Expanded Disability Status Scale score < 6) prior to transplantation was associated with significantly improved survival [78 ± 14% (n = 9) versus 20 ± 18%(n = 5); P < 0.05] and maintenance of ambulation (Expanded Disability Status Scale score < 7) post-transplant (78% versus 0%; P = 0.021). In contrast, bilateral involvement of the internal capsule on brain MRI was associated with poorer survival [20 ± 18% (n = 5) versus 78 ± 14% (n = 9); P < 0.05]. This study is the first to support the feasibility, complications and potential long-term neurological benefit of allogeneic haematopoietic stem cell transplantation in adult cerebral adrenoleukodystrophy. Further studies are warranted to attempt to improve outcomes through patient selection and optimization of transplantation protocols