At the edge of the safety net : unsuccessful benefits claims at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic - Welfare at a (Social) Distance Rapid Report #3

There has been much scrutiny of the British benefits system during COVID-19, and most experts agree that the benefits system has performed well, even if historic weaknesses remain. Yet little attention has been paid to those who start a claim that is ultimately not successful. This report focuses on these ‘unsuccessful claimants’, using new YouGov survey data and interviews funded by the Health Foundation. Unsuccessful claimants raise two policy issues. Firstly, some claims are unsuccessful because of problems with the process of claiming benefits. Did the changes made by the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) in response to COVID-19 ensure that everyone could navigate the system? Secondly, some claims are unsuccessful because of the design of the benefits system: these people are not eligible for benefits. This reflects decisions by policymakers about the purpose of a policy and how this can best be achieved, balanced against wider impacts including poverty, health and wellbeing; the public finances; and the wider economy

Conserving the Stage: Climate Change and the Geophysical Underpinnings of Species Diversity

Conservationists have proposed methods for adapting to climate change that assume species distributions are primarily explained by climate variables. The key idea is to use the understanding of species-climate relationships to map corridors and to identify regions of faunal stability or high species turnover. An alternative approach is to adopt an evolutionary timescale and ask ultimately what factors control total diversity, so that over the long run the major drivers of total species richness can be protected. Within a single climatic region, the temperate area encompassing all of the Northeastern U.S. and Maritime Canada, we hypothesized that geologic factors may take precedence over climate in explaining diversity patterns. If geophysical diversity does drive regional diversity, then conserving geophysical settings may offer an approach to conservation that protects diversity under both current and future climates. Here we tested how well geology predicts the species diversity of 14 US states and three Canadian provinces, using a comprehensive new spatial dataset. Results of linear regressions of species diversity on all possible combinations of 23 geophysical and climatic variables indicated that four geophysical factors; the number of geological classes, latitude, elevation range and the amount of calcareous bedrock, predicted species diversity with certainty (adj. R2 = 0.94). To confirm the species-geology relationships we ran an independent test using 18,700 location points for 885 rare species and found that 40% of the species were restricted to a single geology. Moreover, each geology class supported 5–95 endemic species and chi-square tests confirmed that calcareous bedrock and extreme elevations had significantly more rare species than expected by chance (P<0.0001), strongly corroborating the regression model. Our results suggest that protecting geophysical settings will conserve the stage for current and future biodiversity and may be a robust alternative to species-level predictions

Factors associated with timeliness of post-primary care referral, diagnosis and treatment for lung cancer: population-based, data-linkage study

BACKGROUND: The NHS Cancer Plan for England set waiting time targets for cancer referral (14 days from GP referral to first hospital appointment) and treatment (31 days from diagnosis, 62 days from urgent GP referral). Interim diagnostic intervals can also be calculated. The factors that influence timely post-primary care referral, diagnosis and treatment for lung cancer are not known. METHODS: Northern and Yorkshire Cancer Registry, Hospital Episode Statistics and lung cancer audit data sets were linked. Logistic regression was used to investigate the factors (socioeconomic position, age, sex, histology, co-morbidity, year of diagnosis, stage and performance status (PS)) that may influence the likelihood of referral, diagnosis and treatment within target, for 28 733 lung cancer patients diagnosed in 2006–2010. RESULTS: Late-stage, poor PS and small-cell histology were associated with a higher likelihood of post-primary care referral, diagnosis and treatment within target. Older patients were significantly less likely to receive treatment within the 31-day (odds ratio (OR)=0.79, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.69–0.91) and 62-day target (OR=0.80, 95% CI 0.67–0.95) compared with younger patients. CONCLUSIONS: Older patients waited longer for treatment and this may be unjustified. Patients who appeared ill were referred, diagnosed and treated more quickly and this ‘sicker quicker’ effect may cancel out system socioeconomic inequalities that might result in longer time intervals for more deprived patients

Mating First, Mating More: Biological Market Fluctuation in a Wild Prosimian

In biology, economics, and politics, distributive power is the key for understanding asymmetrical relationships and it can be obtained by force (dominance) or trading (leverage). Whenever males cannot use force, they largely depend on females for breeding opportunities and the balance of power tilts in favour of females. Thus, males are expected not only to compete within their sex-class but also to exchange services with the opposite sex. Does this mating market, described for humans and apes, apply also to prosimians, the most ancestral primate group? To answer the question, we studied a scent-oriented and gregarious lemur, Propithecus verreauxi (sifaka), showing female dominance, promiscuous mating, and seasonal breeding. We collected 57 copulations involving 8 males and 4 females in the wild (Berenty Reserve, South Madagascar), and data (all occurrences) on grooming, aggressions, and marking behaviour. We performed the analyses via exact Spearman and matrix correlations. Male mating priority rank correlated with the frequency of male countermarking over female scents but not with the proportion of fights won by males over females. Thus, males competed in an olfactory tournament more than in an arena of aggressive encounters. The copulation frequency correlated neither with the proportion of fights won by males nor with the frequency of male countermarking on female scents. Male-to-female grooming correlated with female-to-male grooming only during premating. Instead, in the mating period male-to-female grooming correlated with the copulation frequency. In short, the biological market underwent seasonal fluctuations, since males bargained grooming for sex in the mating days and grooming for itself in the premating period. Top scent-releasers gained mating priority (they mated first) and top groomers ensured a higher number of renewed copulations (they mated more). In conclusion, males maximize their reproduction probability by adopting a double tactic and by following market fluctuations

Expression of costimulatory molecules in the bovine corpus luteum

BACKGROUND: Bovine luteal parenchymal cells express class II major histocompatibility complex (MHC) molecules and stimulate class II MHC-dependent activation of T cells in vitro. The ability of a class II MHC-expressing cell type to elicit a response from T cells in vivo is also dependent on expression of costimulatory molecules by the antigen presenting cell and delivery of a costimulatory signal to the T cell. Whether bovine luteal parenchymal cells express costimulatory molecules and can deliver the costimulatory signal is currently unknown. METHODS: Bovine luteal tissue was collected during the early (day 5; day of estrus = day 0), mid (day 11–12), or late (day 18) luteal phase of the estrous cycle, and at 0, 0.5, 1, 4, 12 or 24 hours following administration of PGF2alpha to cows on day 10 of the estrous cycle. Northern analysis was used to measure CD80 or CD86 mRNA concentrations in luteal tissue samples. Mixed luteal parenchymal cell cultures and purified luteal endothelial cell cultures were prepared, and real-time RT-PCR was used to examine the presence of CD80 and CD86 mRNA in each culture type. Monoclonal antibodies to CD80 and CD86 were added to a mixed luteal parenchymal cell-T cell co-culture in vitro T cell proliferation assay to assess the functional significance of costimulatory molecules on activation of T lymphocytes by luteal parenchymal cells. RESULTS: Northern analysis revealed CD80 and CD86 mRNAs in luteal tissue, with greatest steady-state concentrations at midcycle. CD80 and CD86 mRNAs were detected in mixed luteal parenchymal cell cultures, but only slight amounts of CD80 (and not CD86) mRNA were detected in cultures of luteal endothelial cells. Luteinizing hormone, PGF2alpha and TNF-alpha were without effect on concentrations of CD80 or CD86 mRNA in mixed luteal parenchymal cells cultures. Anti-CD80 or anti-CD86 monoclonal antibodies inhibited T cell proliferation in the in vitro T cell proliferation assay. CONCLUSION: It can be concluded from this study that parenchymal cells within the bovine CL express functional costimulatory molecules that facilitate interactions between with T cells, and these components of the antigen presentation pathway are expressed maximally in the midcycle CL

Estimating how inflated or obscured effects of climate affect forecasted species distribution

Climate is one of the main drivers of species distribution. However, as different environmental factors tend to co-vary, the effect of climate cannot be taken at face value, as it may be either inflated or obscured by other correlated factors. We used the favourability models of four species (Alytes dickhilleni, Vipera latasti, Aquila fasciata and Capra pyrenaica) inhabiting Spanish mountains as case studies to evaluate the relative contribution of climate in their forecasted favourability by using variation partitioning and weighting the effect of climate in relation to non-climatic factors. By calculating the pure effect of the climatic factor, the pure effects of non-climatic factors, the shared climatic effect and the proportion of the pure effect of the climatic factor in relation to its apparent effect (r), we assessed the apparent effect and the pure independent effect of climate. We then projected both types of effects when modelling the future favourability for each species and combination of AOGCM-SRES (two Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models: CGCM2 and ECHAM4, and two Special Reports on Emission Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B2). The results show that the apparent effect of climate can be either inflated (overrated) or obscured (underrated) by other correlated factors. These differences were species-specific; the sum of favourable areas forecasted according to the pure climatic effect differed from that forecasted according to the apparent climatic effect by about 61% on average for one of the species analyzed, and by about 20% on average for each of the other species. The pure effect of future climate on species distributions can only be estimated by combining climate with other factors. Transferring the pure climatic effect and the apparent climatic effect to the future delimits the maximum and minimum favourable areas forecasted for each species in each climate change scenario.Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación and FEDER (project CGL2009-11316/BOS). D. Romero is a PhD student at the University of Malaga with a grant of the Ministerio de Educacio´n y Ciencia (AP 2007-03633