Simultaneous Dependence of the Earthquake-Size Distribution on Faulting Style and Depth

We analyze two high-quality Southern Californian earthquake catalogues, one with focal mechanisms, to statistically model and test for dependencies of the earthquake-size distribution, the b values, on both faulting style and depth. In our null hypothesis, b is assumed constant. We then develop and calibrate one model based only on faulting style, another based only on depth dependence and two models that assume a simultaneous dependence on both parameters. We develop a new maximum-likelihood estimator corrected for the degrees of freedom to assess models' performances. Our results show that all models significantly reject the null hypothesis. The best performing is the one that simultaneously takes account of depth and faulting style. Our results suggest that differential stress variations in the Earth's crust systematically influence b values and that this variability should be considered for contemporary seismic hazard studies

Pyruvate: immunonutritional effects on neutrophil intracellular amino or alpha-keto acid profiles and reactive oxygen species production

For the first time the immunonutritional role of pyruvate on neutrophils (PMN), free α-keto and amino acid profiles, important reactive oxygen species (ROS) produced [superoxide anion (O2−), hydrogen peroxide (H2O2)] as well as released myeloperoxidase (MPO) acitivity has been investigated. Exogenous pyruvate significantly increased PMN pyruvate, α-ketoglutarate, asparagine, glutamine, aspartate, glutamate, arginine, citrulline, alanine, glycine and serine in a dose as well as duration of exposure dependent manner. Moreover, increases in O2− formation, H2O2-generation and MPO acitivity in parallel with intracellular pyruvate changes have also been detected. Regarding the interesting findings presented here we believe, that pyruvate fulfils considerably the criteria for a potent immunonutritional molecule in the regulation of the PMN dynamic α-keto and amino acid pools. Moreover it also plays an important role in parallel modulation of the granulocyte-dependent innate immune regulation. Although further research is necessary to clarify pyruvate’s sole therapeutical role in critically ill patients’ immunonutrition, the first scientific successes seem to be very promising

Fault Stability Perturbation by Thermal Pressurization and Stress Transfer Around a Deep Geological Repository in a Clay Formation

The increase of temperature of a low-permeability, fluid-saturated media may trigger significant thermal pressurization, where the expansion of pore fluid cannot be accommodated by the thermal expansion of the pore space. With the aid of a coupled thermohydromechanical numerical simulator, we investigate the possible impact of thermal pressurization during the life of a deep geological repository (DGR) for high-level radioactive waste, characterized by the emplacement of radioactive material-filled canisters in a series of parallel tunnels, excavated in a low-permeability clay formation. We represent the fault as a planar structure embedded in a thermoporoelastic material and shear activation evaluated by a strain-softening Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion. The results show that stress changes caused by temperature and thermal pressurization of a rock mass around the emplacement tunnels may trigger a slip event on a fault plane in proximity of the geological disposal site: Rupture nucleates at depth, hundreds of meters below the DGR. Stress transfer plays a key role, while a direct hydraulic connection between the repository and the nucleation zone is not necessary in order to trigger rupture. A low stress ratio may favor the occurrence of slip up to a distance of 600 m of the fault from the outermost tunnel. These results highlight the need of investigating hydromechanical properties and local stress conditions at depth to characterize the geomechanical response of weak planes located in the surroundings of a high-level radioactive waste repository and to provide sufficient knowledge for the safe development of the DGR site

Hydromechanical Modeling of Fault Reactivation in the St. Gallen Deep Geothermal Project (Switzerland): Poroelasticity or Hydraulic Connection?

In 2013, fluid injection during the St. Gallen deep geothermal project, Switzerland, induced hundreds of seismic events, including a ML 3.5 earthquake on a fault hundreds of meters away from the well. Recent studies have suggested the direct pressure effect through permeable hydraulic connections and poroelastic effects as possible mechanisms for inducing seismicity on distant faults. In St. Gallen, operational, seismic, and earthquake data are available to investigate the underlying physical mechanisms using a numerical model. The results show that Coulomb stress changes at the fault can be 3 orders of magnitude greater when a hydraulic connection is present. Combining this with several field observations, we conclude that the direct pressure effect was more likely the predominant mechanism behind the seismicity induced in St. Gallen. The detection of hydraulic connections may be important for future projects as pressure can be driven far from the well and reactivate remote faults

On the physics-based processes behind production-induced seismicity in natural gas fields

Induced seismicity due to natural gas production is observed at different sites worldwide. Common understanding states that the pressure drop caused by gas production leads to compaction, which affects the stress field in the reservoir and the surrounding rock formations and hence reactivates preexisting faults and induces earthquakes. In this study, we show that the multiphase fluid flow involved in natural gas extraction activities should be included. We use a fully coupled fluid flow and geomechanics simulator, which accounts for stress-dependent permeability and linear poroelasticity, to better determine the conditions leading to fault reactivation. In our model setup, gas is produced from a porous reservoir, divided into two compartments that are offset by a normal fault. Results show that fluid flow plays a major role in pore pressure and stress evolution within the fault. Fault strength is significantly reduced due to fluid flow into the fault zone from the neighboring reservoir compartment and other formations. We also analyze scenarios for minimizing seismicity after a period of production, such as (i) well shut-in and (ii) gas reinjection. In the case of well shut-in, a highly stressed fault zone can still be reactivated several decades after production has ceased, although on average the shut-in results in a reduction in seismicity. In the case of gas reinjection, fault reactivation can be avoided if gas is injected directly into the compartment under depletion. However, gas reinjection into a neighboring compartment does not stop the fault from being reactivated

The importance of earthquake interactions for injection-induced seismicity: Retrospective modeling of the Basel Enhanced Geothermal System

We explore the role of earthquake interactions during an injection-induced seismic sequence. We propose a model, which considers both a transient pressure and static stress redistribution due to event interactions as triggering mechanisms. By calibrating the model against observations at the Enhanced Geothermal System of Basel, Switzerland, we are able to reproduce the time behavior of the seismicity rate. We observe that considering earthquake interactions in the modeling leads to a larger number of expected seismic events (24% more) if compared to a pressure-induced seismicity only. The increase of the number of events is particularly evident after the end of the injection. We conclude that implementing a model for estimating the static stress changes due to mutual event interactions increases significantly the understanding of the process and the behavior of induced seismicity

The Effect of a Mainshock on the Size Distribution of the Aftershocks

A systematic decay of the aftershock rate over time is one of the most fundamental empirical laws in Earth science. However, the equally fundamental effect of a mainshock on the size distribution of subsequent earthquakes has still not been quantified today and is therefore not used in earthquake hazard assessment. We apply a stacking approach to well-recorded earthquake sequences to extract this effect. Immediately after a mainshock, the mean size distribution of events, or b value, increases by 20–30%, considerably decreasing the chance of subsequent larger events. This increase is strongest in the immediate vicinity of the mainshock, decreasing rapidly with distance but only gradually over time. We present a model that explains these observations as a consequence of the stress changes in the surrounding area caused by the mainshocks slip. Our results have substantial implications for how seismic risk during earthquake sequences is assessed