Microsimulation for demography

Background: Microsimulation consists of a set of techniques for estimating characteristics and modelling change in populations of individuals. Aims: To demonstrate how microsimulation can be used by demographers who want to undertake population estimates and projections. Data and methods: We use data from the 2011 United Kingdom (UK) Census of population to create a synthetic population by age, sex and ethnic group. Static and dynamic microsimulations and the visualisation of results are undertaken using the statistical package R. The code and data used in the static and dynamic microsimulation are available via a GitHub repository. Results: A synthetic population in 2011 by age, sex and ethnicity was produced for the East London Borough of Tower Hamlets, estimated from two Census tables. A population projection was produced for each of these age, sex and ethnicity groups to 2021. We used a projection of the Bangladeshi population to visualise population growth by Middle-layer Super Output Area (MSOA) and to produce a population pyramid of estimates in 2021. Conclusions: We argue that microsimulation is an adaptable technique which is well suited to demography, for both population estimation and projection. Although our example is applied to the East London Borough of Tower Hamlets, the approach could be readily applied in Australia, or any other country

An investigation of the effects of the common cold on simulated driving performance and detection of collisions

The aim of the present research was to investigate whether individuals with a common cold showed impaired ability on a simulated driving task and the ability to detect potential collisions between moving objects. The study involved comparison of a healthy group with a group with colds. These scores were adjusted for individual differences by collecting further data when both groups were healthy and using these scores as covariates. On both occasions volunteers rated their symptoms, carried out a laboratory task measuring collision detection and also a simulated driving session. Twenty five students from the University of Leeds. 10 volunteers were healthy on both occasions and 15 had a cold on the first session and were healthy on the second. In the collision detection task the main outcomes were correct detections and response to a secondary identification task. In the simulated driving task the outcomes were: speed; lateral control; gap acceptance; overtaking behaviour; car following; vigilance and traffic light violations. Those with a cold detected fewer collisions and had a higher divided attention error than those who were healthy. Many basic driving skills were unimpaired by the illness. However, those with a cold were slower at responding to unexpected events and drove closer to the car in front. The finding that having a common cold reduces the ability to detect collisions and respond quickly to unexpected events is of practical importance. Further research is now required to examine the efficacy of information campaigns and countermeasures such as caffeine

The CCD and readout electronics for the OMC instrument on Integral

The Optical Monitoring Camera (OMC) on ESA's Integral gamma-ray astronomy satellite is devoted to optical wavelength observations simultaneously covering the same field-of-view as the gamma-ray and X-ray instruments. The OMC consists of a refracting telescope with a CCD as the imaging device in the focal plane. Here we describe the CCD and its associated readout electronics, in particular pointing out features of interest to users of the OMC instrument and its data

Random planar graphs and the London street network

In this paper we analyse the street network of London both in its primary and dual representation. To understand its properties, we consider three idealised models based on a grid, a static random planar graph and a growing random planar graph. Comparing the models and the street network, we find that the streets of London form a self-organising system whose growth is characterised by a strict interaction between the metrical and informational space. In particular, a principle of least effort appears to create a balance between the physical and the mental effort required to navigate the city

Demonstration of the Presence of the "Deleted" MIR122 Gene in HepG2 Cells

MicroRNA 122 (miR-122) is highly expressed in the liver where it influences diverse biological processes and pathways, including hepatitis C virus replication and metabolism of iron and cholesterol. It is processed from a long non-coding primary transcript (~7.5 kb) and the gene has two evolutionarily-conserved regions containing the pri-mir-122 promoter and pre-mir-122 hairpin region. Several groups reported that the widely-used hepatocytic cell line HepG2 had deficient expression of miR-122, previously ascribed to deletion of the pre-mir-122 stem-loop region. We aimed to characterise this deletion by direct sequencing of 6078 bp containing the pri-mir-122 promoter and pre-mir-122 stem-loop region in HepG2 and Huh-7, a control hepatocytic cell line reported to express miR-122, supported by sequence analysis of cloned genomic DNA. In contrast to previous findings, the entire sequence was present in both cell lines. Ten SNPs were heterozygous in HepG2 indicating that DNA was present in two copies. Three validation isolates of HepG2 were sequenced, showing identical genotype to the original in two, whereas the third was different. Investigation of promoter chromatin status by FAIRE showed that Huh-7 cells had 6.2 ± 0.19- and 2.7 ± 0.01- fold more accessible chromatin at the proximal (HNF4α-binding) and distal DR1 transcription factor sites, compared to HepG2 cells (p=0.03 and 0.001, respectively). This was substantiated by ENCODE genome annotations, which showed a DNAse I hypersensitive site in the pri-mir-122 promoter in Huh-7 that was absent in HepG2 cells. While the origin of the reported deletion is unclear, cell lines should be obtained from a reputable source and used at low passage number to avoid discrepant results. Deficiency of miR-122 expression in HepG2 cells may be related to a relative deficiency of accessible promoter chromatin in HepG2 versus Huh-7 cells

Leishmania-specific surface antigens show sub-genus sequence variation and immune recognition.

A family of hydrophilic acylated surface (HASP) proteins, containing extensive and variant amino acid repeats, is expressed at the plasma membrane in infective extracellular (metacyclic) and intracellular (amastigote) stages of Old World Leishmania species. While HASPs are antigenic in the host and can induce protective immune responses, the biological functions of these Leishmania-specific proteins remain unresolved. Previous genome analysis has suggested that parasites of the sub-genus Leishmania (Viannia) have lost HASP genes from their genomes

Acoustic transmission through compound subwavelength slit arrays

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.The angular dependence of the transmission of sound in air through four types of 2D slit-arrays formed of aluminium slats is explored, both experimentally and numerically. For a simple, subwavelength periodic slit-array, it is well known that Fabry-Perot-like wave-guide resonances, supported by the slit-cavities, hybridising with bound acoustic surface waves, result in ‘Enhanced Acoustic Transmission’ at frequencies determined by the length, width and separation of each slit-cavity. We demonstrate that altering the spacing or width of some of the slits to form a compound array (i.e. an array having a basis comprised of more than one slit) results in sharp dips in the transmission spectra, that may have a strong angular dependence. These features correspond to ‘phase resonances’, which have been studied extensively in the electromagnetic case. This geometry allows for additional near-field configurations compared to the simple array, whereby the field in adjacent cavities can be out-of-phase. Several types of compound slit-array are investigated; one such structure is optimised to minimise the effect of boundary-layer loss mechanisms present in each slit cavity, thereby achieving a deep, sharp transmission minimum in a broad maximumThe authors would like to thank the UK Ministry of Defence’s Defence Science and Technology Laboratorty (DSTL) for their financial support and permission to publis

Criteria of efficiency for conformal prediction

We study optimal conformity measures for various criteria of efficiency of classification in an idealised setting. This leads to an important class of criteria of efficiency that we call probabilistic; it turns out that the most standard criteria of efficiency used in literature on conformal prediction are not probabilistic unless the problem of classification is binary. We consider both unconditional and label-conditional conformal prediction.Comment: 31 page

Enhanced recovery protocols for major upper gastrointestinal, liver and pancreatic surgery

BACKGROUND: 'Fast-track surgery' or 'enhanced recovery protocol' or 'fast-track rehabilitation', incorporating one or more elements of preoperative education, pain relief, early mobilisation, enteral nutrition and growth factors, may improve health-related quality of life and reduce length of hospital stay and costs. The role of enhanced recovery protocols in major upper gastrointestinal, liver and pancreatic surgery is unclear. OBJECTIVES: To assess the benefits and harms of enhanced recovery protocols compared with standard care (or usual practice) in major upper gastrointestinal, liver and pancreatic surgery. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL; Cochrane Library; 2015, Issue 3), MEDLINE, EMBASE and Science Citation Index Expanded until March 2015 to identify randomised trials. We also searched the references of included trials to identify further trials. SELECTION CRITERIA: We considered only randomised controlled trials (RCTs) performed in people undergoing major upper gastrointestinal, liver and pancreatic surgery, irrespective of language, blinding or publication status for inclusion in the review. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently identified trials and independently extracted data. We calculated the risk ratio (RR), mean difference (MD), or standardised mean difference (SMD) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using both fixed-effect and random-effects models using Review Manager 5, based on available case analysis. MAIN RESULTS: Ten studies met the inclusion criteria for the review, and nine studies provided information on one or more outcomes for the review. A total of 1014 participants were randomly assigned to the enhanced recovery protocol (499 participants) or standard care (515 participants) in the nine RCTs. Most of the trials included low anaesthetic risk participants with high performance status undergoing different upper gastrointestinal, liver and pancreatic surgeries. Eight trials incorporated more than one element of the enhanced recovery protocol. All of the trials were at high risk of bias. The overall quality of evidence was low or very low.None of the trials reported long-term mortality, medium-term health-related quality of life(three months to one year), time to return to normal activity, or time to return to work. The difference between the enhanced recovery protocol and standard care were imprecise for short-term mortality (enhanced recovery protocol: 4/425 (adjusted proportion = 0.6%); standard care: 1/443 (0.2%); seven trials; 868 participants; RR 2.79; 95% CI 0.44 to 17.73; very low quality evidence), proportion of people with serious adverse events (enhanced recovery protocol: 4/157 (adjusted proportion = 0.6%); standard care: 0/184 (0.0%); two trials; 341 participants; RR 5.57; 95% CI 0.68 to 45.89; very low quality evidence), number of serious adverse events (enhanced recovery protocol: 34/421 (8 per 100 participants); standard care: 46/438 (11 per 100 participants); seven trials; 859 participants; rate ratio 0.72; 95% CI 0.45 to 1.13; very low quality evidence), health-related quality of life (four trials; 373 participants; SMD 0.29; 95% CI -0.04 to 0.62; very low quality evidence) and hospital readmissions (enhanced recovery protocol: 14/355 (adjusted proportion = 3.3%); standard care: 9/378 (2.4%); seven trials; 733 participants; RR 1.4; 95% CI 0.69 to 2.87; very low quality evidence). The enhanced recovery protocol group had a lower proportion of people with mild adverse events (enhanced recovery protocol: 31/254 (adjusted proportion = 10.9%); standard care: 51/271 (18.8%); four trials; 525 participants; RR 0.58; 95% CI 0.39 to 0.85; low quality evidence), fewer number of mild adverse events (enhanced recovery protocol: 69/499 (13 per 100 participants); standard care: 128/515 (25 per 100 participants); nine trials; 1014 participants; rate ratio 0.52; 95% CI 0.39 to 0.70; low quality evidence), shorter length of hospital stay (nine trials; 1014 participants; MD -2.19 days; 95% CI -2.53 to -1.85; low quality evidence) and lower costs (four trials; 282 participants; MD USD -6300; 95% CI -8400 to -4200; low quality evidence) than standard care group. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Based on low quality evidence, enhanced recovery protocols may reduce length of hospital stay and costs (primarily because of reduction in hospital stay) in people undergoing major upper gastrointestinal, liver and pancreatic surgeries. However, the validity of the results is uncertain because of the risk of bias in the trials and the way the outcomes were measured. Future RCTs should be conducted with low risk of bias, and measure clinically important outcomes for including the three months to one year period