Spread of Infectious Diseases with a Latent Period

Infectious diseases spread through human networks. Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model is one of the epidemic models to describe infection dynamics on a complex network connecting individuals. In the metapopulation SIR model, each node represents a population (group) which has many individuals. In this paper, we propose a modified metapopulation SIR model in which a latent period is taken into account. We call it SIIR model. We divide the infection period into two stages: an infected stage, which is the same as the previous model, and a seriously ill stage, in which individuals are infected and cannot move to the other populations. The two infectious stages in our modified metapopulation SIR model produce a discontinuous final size distribution. Individuals in the infected stage spread the disease like individuals in the seriously ill stage and never recover directly, which makes an effective recovery rate smaller than the given recovery rate.Comment: 6 pages, 3 figure

Decoupling of morphological disparity and taxic diversity during the adaptive radiation of anomodont therapsids

Adaptive radiations are central to macroevolutionary theory. Whether triggered by acquisition of new traits or ecological opportunities arising from mass extinctions, it is debated whether adaptive radiations are marked by initial expansion of taxic diversity or of morphological disparity (the range of anatomical form). If a group rediversifies following a mass extinction, it is said to have passed through a macroevolutionary bottleneck, and the loss of taxic or phylogenetic diversity may limit the amount of morphological novelty that it can subsequently generate. Anomodont therapsids, a diverse clade of Permian and Triassic herbivorous tetrapods, passed through a bottleneck during the end-Permian mass extinction. Their taxic diversity increased during the Permian, declined significantly at the Permo–Triassic boundary and rebounded during the Middle Triassic before the clade's final extinction at the end of the Triassic. By sharp contrast, disparity declined steadily during most of anomodont history. Our results highlight three main aspects of adaptive radiations: (i) diversity and disparity are generally decoupled; (ii) models of radiations following mass extinctions may differ from those triggered by other causes (e.g. trait acquisition); and (iii) the bottleneck caused by a mass extinction means that a clade can emerge lacking its original potential for generating morphological variety

Temporal variance of disturbance did not affect diversity and structure of a marine fouling community in north-eastern New Zealand

Natural heterogeneity in ecological parameters, like population abundance, is more widely recognized and investigated than variability in the processes that control these parameters. Experimental ecologists have focused mainly on the mean intensity of predictor variables and have largely ignored the potential to manipulate variances in processes, which can be considered explicitly in experimental designs to explore variation in causal mechanisms. In the present study, the effect of the temporal variance of disturbance on the diversity of marine assemblages was tested in a field experiment replicated at two sites on the northeast coast of New Zealand. Fouling communities grown on artificial settlement substrata experienced disturbance regimes that differed in their inherent levels of temporal variability and timing of disturbance events, while disturbance intensity was identical across all levels. Additionally, undisturbed assemblages were used as controls. After 150 days of experimental duration, the assemblages were then compared with regard to their species richness, abundance and structure. The disturbance effectively reduced the average total cover of the assemblages, but no consistent effect of variability in the disturbance regime on the assemblages was detected. The results of this study were corroborated by the outcomes from simultaneous replicate experiments carried out in each of eight different biogeographical regions around the world

Heterotic Line Bundle Standard Models

In a previous publication, arXiv:1106.4804, we have found 200 models from heterotic Calabi-Yau compactifications with line bundles, which lead to standard models after taking appropriate quotients by a discrete symmetry and introducing Wilson lines. In this paper, we construct the resulting standard models explicitly, compute their spectrum including Higgs multiplets, and analyze some of their basic properties. After removing redundancies we find about 400 downstairs models, each with the precise matter spectrum of the supersymmetric standard model, with one, two or three pairs of Higgs doublets and no exotics of any kind. In addition to the standard model gauge group, up to four Green-Schwarz anomalous U(1) symmetries are present in these models, which constrain the allowed operators in the four-dimensional effective supergravity. The vector bosons associated to these anomalous U(1) symmetries are massive. We explicitly compute the spectrum of allowed operators for each model and present the results, together with the defining data of the models, in a database of standard models accessible at http://www-thphys.physics.ox.ac.uk/projects/CalabiYau/linebundlemodels/index.html. Based on these results we analyze elementary phenomenological properties. For example, for about 200 models all dimension four and five proton decay violating operators are forbidden by the additional U(1) symmetries.Comment: 55 pages, Latex, 3 pdf figure

Egg shape changes at the theropod–bird transition, and a morphometric study of amniote eggs

The eggs of amniotes exhibit a remarkable variety of shapes, from spherical to elongate and from symmetrical to asymmetrical. We examine eggshell geometry in a diverse sample of fossil and living amniotes using geometric morphometrics and linear measurements. Our goal is to quantify patterns of morphospace occupation and shape variation in the eggs of recent through to Mesozoic birds (neornithe plus non-neornithe avialans), as well as in eggs attributed to non-avialan theropods. In most amniotes, eggs show significant deviation from sphericity, but departure from symmetry around the equatorial axis is mostly confined to theropods and birds. Mesozoic bird eggs differ significantly from extant bird eggs, but extinct Cenozoic bird eggs do not. This suggests that the range of egg shapes in extant birds had already been attained in the Cenozoic. We conclude with a discussion of possible biological factors imparting variation to egg shapes during their formation in the oviduct

Dynamics of multi-stage infections on networks

This paper investigates the dynamics of infectious diseases with a nonexponentially distributed infectious period. This is achieved by considering a multistage infection model on networks. Using pairwise approximation with a standard closure, a number of important characteristics of disease dynamics are derived analytically, including the final size of an epidemic and a threshold for epidemic outbreaks, and it is shown how these quantities depend on disease characteristics, as well as the number of disease stages. Stochastic simulations of dynamics on networks are performed and compared to output of pairwise models for several realistic examples of infectious diseases to illustrate the role played by the number of stages in the disease dynamics. These results show that a higher number of disease stages results in faster epidemic outbreaks with a higher peak prevalence and a larger final size of the epidemic. The agreement between the pairwise and simulation models is excellent in the cases we consider

Cognitively-inspired Agent-based Service Composition for Mobile & Pervasive Computing

Automatic service composition in mobile and pervasive computing faces many challenges due to the complex and highly dynamic nature of the environment. Common approaches consider service composition as a decision problem whose solution is usually addressed from optimization perspectives which are not feasible in practice due to the intractability of the problem, limited computational resources of smart devices, service host's mobility, and time constraints to tailor composition plans. Thus, our main contribution is the development of a cognitively-inspired agent-based service composition model focused on bounded rationality rather than optimality, which allows the system to compensate for limited resources by selectively filtering out continuous streams of data. Our approach exhibits features such as distributedness, modularity, emergent global functionality, and robustness, which endow it with capabilities to perform decentralized service composition by orchestrating manifold service providers and conflicting goals from multiple users. The evaluation of our approach shows promising results when compared against state-of-the-art service composition models.Comment: This paper will appear on AIMS'19 (International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Mobile Services) on June 2

Livestock trade network: potential for disease transmission and implications for risk-based surveillance on the island of Mayotte

The island of Mayotte is a department of France, an outermost region of the European Union located in the Indian Ocean between Madagascar and the coast of Eastern Africa. Due to its close connection to the African mainland and neighbouring islands, the island is under constant threat of introduction of infectious diseases of both human and animal origin. Here, using social network analysis and mathematical modelling, we assessed potential implications of livestock movements between communes in Mayotte for risk-based surveillance. Our analyses showed that communes in the central region of Mayotte acted as a hub in the livestock movement network. The majority of livestock movements occurred between communes in the central region and from communes in the central region to those in the outer region. Also, communes in the central region were more likely to be infected earlier than those in the outer region when the spread of an exotic infectious disease was simulated on the livestock movement network. The findings of this study, therefore, suggest that communes in the central region would play a major role in the spread of infectious diseases via livestock movements, which needs to be considered in the design of risk-based surveillance systems in Mayotte

By hook or by crook? Morphometry, competition and cooperation in rodent sperm

Background Sperm design varies enormously across species and sperm competition is thought to be a major factor influencing this variation. However, the functional significance of many sperm traits is still poorly understood. The sperm of most murid rodents are characterised by an apical hook of the sperm head that varies markedly in extent across species. In the European woodmouse Apodemus sylvaticus (Muridae), the highly reflected apical hook of sperm is used to form sperm groups, or “trains,” which exhibited increased swimming velocity and thrusting force compared to individual sperm. Methodology/Principal Findings Here we use a comparative study of murine rodent sperm and demonstrate that the apical hook and sperm cooperation are likely to be general adaptations to sperm competition in rodents. We found that species with relatively larger testes, and therefore more intense sperm competition, have a longer, more reflected apical sperm hook. In addition, we show that sperm groups also occur in rodents other than the European woodmouse. Conclusions Our results suggest that in rodents sperm cooperation is more widespread than assumed so far and highlight the importance of diploid versus haploid selection in the evolution of sperm design and function

The radiation of cynodonts and the ground plan of mammalian morphological diversity

Cynodont therapsids diversified extensively after the Permo-Triassic mass extinction event, and gave rise to mammals in the Jurassic. We use an enlarged and revised dataset of discrete skeletal characters to build a new phylogeny for all main cynodont clades from the Late Permian to the Early Jurassic, and we analyse models of morphological diversification in the group. Basal taxa and epicynodonts are paraphyletic relative to eucynodonts, and the latter are divided into cynognathians and probainognathians, with tritylodonts and mammals forming sister groups. Disparity analyses reveal a heterogeneous distribution of cynodonts in a morphospace derived from cladistic characters. Pairwise morphological distances are weakly correlated with phylogenetic distances. Comparisons of disparity by groups and through time are non-significant, especially after the data are rarefied. A disparity peak occurs in the Early/Middle Triassic, after which period the mean disparity fluctuates little. Cynognathians were characterized by high evolutionary rates and high diversity early in their history, whereas probainognathian rates were low. Community structure may have been instrumental in imposing different rates on the two clades