A new model to predict weak-lensing peak counts II. Parameter constraint strategies

Peak counts have been shown to be an excellent tool to extract the non-Gaussian part of the weak lensing signal. Recently, we developped a fast stochastic forward model to predict weak-lensing peak counts. Our model is able to reconstruct the underlying distribution of observables for analyses. In this work, we explore and compare various strategies for constraining parameter using our model, focusing on the matter density $\Omega_\mathrm{m}$ and the density fluctuation amplitude $\sigma_8$. First, we examine the impact from the cosmological dependency of covariances (CDC). Second, we perform the analysis with the copula likelihood, a technique which makes a weaker assumption compared to the Gaussian likelihood. Third, direct, non-analytic parameter estimations are applied using the full information of the distribution. Fourth, we obtain constraints with approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), an efficient, robust, and likelihood-free algorithm based on accept-reject sampling. We find that neglecting the CDC effect enlarges parameter contours by 22%, and that the covariance-varying copula likelihood is a very good approximation to the true likelihood. The direct techniques work well in spite of noisier contours. Concerning ABC, the iterative process converges quickly to a posterior distribution that is in an excellent agreement with results from our other analyses. The time cost for ABC is reduced by two orders of magnitude. The stochastic nature of our weak-lensing peak count model allows us to use various techniques that approach the true underlying probability distribution of observables, without making simplifying assumptions. Our work can be generalized to other observables where forward simulations provide samples of the underlying distribution.Comment: 15 pages, 11 figures. Accepted versio

Relative price variability and the Philips curve: Evidence from Turkey

We argue that relative price changes are a key component of the Phillips curve relationship between inflation and output. Building on work by Ball and Mankiw, we propose including measures of the variances and skewness of relative price adjustment in an otherwise standard model of the Phillips curve. We examine the case of Turkey, where distribution of price changes is especially skewed and where the existence of a Phillips curve has been questioned. We have two main findings: (i) inclusion of measures of the distribution of relative price changes improves our understanding of the Phillips curve trade-off; (ii) there is no evidence of such a trade-off if these measures are not included

Forecasting House Prices in Germany

In the academic debate there is a broad consensus that house price fluctuations have a substantial impact on financial stability and real economic activity. Therefore, it is important to have timely information on actual and expected house price developments. The aim of this paper is to measure the latest price movements in different real estate markets in Germany and forecast near-term price developments. Therefore we construct hedonic house price indices based on real estate advertisements on the internet platform ImmobilienScout24. Then, starting with a naive AR(p) model as a benchmark, we investigate whether VAR and ARDL models using additional macroeconomic information can improve the forecasting performance as measured by the mean squared forecast error (MSFE). While these models reduce the forecast error only slightly, forecast combination approaches enhance the predictive power considerably..House price forecasts; forecast combination; hedonic price index

Impact of mechanized harvesting on compaction of sandy and clayey forest soils : results of a meta-analysis

Nowadays, harvest operations are predominantly performed fully mechanized using heavy tractors or forestry machines. The resulting soil compaction may negatively affect the soil ecosystem. We wanted to draw general conclusions concerning the impact of mechanized harvesting on forest soil bulk density and the influencing factors. Therefore, we combined the data of several studies using a meta-analysis approach. The impact decreased from the surface towards deeper soil layers. At 0-10 cm depth, the impact on clayey soils was highest although not significantly different from the impact on sandy soils. Higher initial bulk densities, i.e., on already compacted forest soils, generally led to smaller extra increases of bulk density after machine traffic. For sandy soils, the impact was also significantly smaller when machines were lighter. No significant relationship was observed between the compaction degree and traffic intensity. We observed clear compaction on both clayey and sandy soils, especially in case of low initial soil compaction degrees and heavy machines. The compacted initial state of many forest soils, the long recovery period, and the generally high impact of the first passes that is frequently mentioned in literature all count in favour of designated skid trails and an adjustment of the machine type to the job

Cell division promotes efficient retrotransposition in a stable L1 reporter cell line

Background: Long interspersed element type one (L1) actively modifies the human genome by inserting new copies of itself. This process, termed retrotransposition, requires the formation of an L1 ribonucleoprotein (RNP) complex, which must enter the nucleus before retrotransposition can proceed. Thus, the nuclear import of L1 RNP presents an opportunity for cells to regulate L1 retrotransposition post-translationally. The effect of cell division on L1 retrotransposition has been investigated by two previous studies, which observed varied degrees of inhibition in retrotransposition when primary cell strains or cancer cell lines were experimentally arrested in different stages of the cell cycle. However, seemingly divergent conclusions were reached. The role of cell division on retrotransposition remains highly debated. Findings: To monitor both L1 expression and retrotransposition quantitatively, we developed a stable dual-luciferase L1 reporter cell line, in which a bi-directional tetracycline-inducible promoter drives the expression of both a firefly luciferase-tagged L1 element and a Renilla luciferase, the latter indicative of the level of promoter induction. We observed an additional 10-fold reduction in retrotransposition in cell-cycle arrested cells even after retrotransposition had been normalized to Renilla luciferase or L1 ORF1 protein levels. In synchronized cells, cells undergoing two mitoses showed 2.6-fold higher retrotransposition than those undergoing one mitosis although L1 expression was induced for the same amount of time. Conclusions: Our data provide additional support for an important role of cell division in retrotransposition and argue that restricting the accessibility of L1 RNP to nuclear DNA could be a post-translational regulatory mechanism for retrotransposition

A new model to predict weak-lensing peak counts: I. Comparison with N-body simulations

International audienceContext. Weak-lensing peak counts have been shown to be a powerful tool for cosmology. They provide non-Gaussian information of large scale structures and are complementary to second-order statistics.Aims. We propose a new flexible method for predicting weak-lensing peak counts, which can be adapted to realistic scenarios, such as a real source distribution, intrinsic galaxy alignment, mask effects, and photo-z errors from surveys. The new model is also suitable for applying the tomography technique and nonlinear filters.Methods. A probabilistic approach to modeling peak counts is presented. First, we sample halos from a mass function. Second, we assign them density profiles. Third, we place those halos randomly on the field of view. The creation of these “fast simulations” requires much less computing time than do N-body runs. Then, we perform ray-tracing through these fast simulation boxes and select peaks from weak-lensing maps to predict peak number counts. The computation is achieved by our Camelus algorithm.Results. We compare our results to N-body simulations to validate our model. We find that our approach is in good agreement with full N-body runs. We show that the lensing signal dominates shape noise and Poisson noise for peaks with S/N between 4 and 6. Also, counts from the same S/N range are sensitive to Ωm and σ8. We show how our model can distinguish between various combinations of those two parameters.Conclusions. In this paper, we offer a powerful tool for studying weak-lensing peaks. The potential of our forward model is its high flexibility, which makes the using peak counts under realistic survey conditions feasible

A new family of diverse skin peptides from the microhylid frog genus phrynomantis

A wide range of frogs produce skin poisons composed of bioactive peptides for defence against pathogens, parasites and predators. While several frog families have been thoroughly screened for skin-secreted peptides, others, like the Microhylidae, have remained mostly unexplored. Previous studies of microhylids found no evidence of peptide secretion, suggesting that this defence adaptation was evolutionarily lost. We conducted transcriptome analyses of the skins of Phrynomantis bifasciatus and Phrynomantis microps, two African microhylid species long suspected to be poisonous. Our analyses reveal 17 evolutionary related transcripts that diversified from to those of cytolytic peptides found in other frog families. The 19 peptides predicted to be processed from these transcripts, named phrynomantins, show a striking structural diversity that is distinct from any previously identified frog skin peptide. Functional analyses of five phrynomantins confirm the loss of a cytolytic function and the absence of insecticidal or proinflammatory activity, suggesting that they represent an evolutionary transition to a new, yet unknown function. Our study shows that peptides have been retained in the defence poison of at least one microhylid lineage and encourages research on similarly understudied taxa to further elucidate the diversity and evolution of skin defence molecules

Sectoral Analysis and Assessment of Geographical Concentration of EU Industries

The aim of this JRC-Seville commissioned study is to gain a deeper understanding of how the process of EU integration has affected patterns of industrial specialisation, geographic location and clustering across Europe and its regions. To carry out this study required a theoretical definition and assessment of the key terms (specialisation, concentration, and clustering); data collection (across time periods, Member States, regions and sectors); formulation and construction of relevant indicators; and assessment of their evolution and the role played by the Single Market.JRC.B.5-Circular Economy and Industrial Leadershi