Estimating malaria transmission intensity from Plasmodium falciparum serological data using antibody density models.

BACKGROUND: Serological data are increasingly being used to monitor malaria transmission intensity and have been demonstrated to be particularly useful in areas of low transmission where traditional measures such as EIR and parasite prevalence are limited. The seroconversion rate (SCR) is usually estimated using catalytic models in which the measured antibody levels are used to categorize individuals as seropositive or seronegative. One limitation of this approach is the requirement to impose a fixed cut-off to distinguish seropositive and negative individuals. Furthermore, the continuous variation in antibody levels is ignored thereby potentially reducing the precision of the estimate. METHODS: An age-specific density model which mimics antibody acquisition and loss was developed to make full use of the information provided by serological measures of antibody levels. This was fitted to blood-stage antibody density data from 12 villages at varying transmission intensity in Northern Tanzania to estimate the exposure rate as an alternative measure of transmission intensity. RESULTS: The results show a high correlation between the exposure rate estimates obtained and the estimated SCR obtained from a catalytic model (r = 0.95) and with two derived measures of EIR (r = 0.74 and r = 0.81). Estimates of exposure rate obtained with the density model were also more precise than those derived from catalytic models. CONCLUSION: This approach, if validated across different epidemiological settings, could be a useful alternative framework for quantifying transmission intensity, which makes more complete use of serological data

Global, regional, and national incidence of six major immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: findings from the global burden of disease study 2019

Background The causes for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) are diverse and the incidence trends of IMIDs from specific causes are rarely studied. The study aims to investigate the pattern and trend of IMIDs from 1990 to 2019. Methods We collected detailed information on six major causes of IMIDs, including asthma, inflammatory bowel disease, multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and atopic dermatitis, between 1990 and 2019, derived from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in number of incidents and age standardized incidence rate (ASR) on IMIDs, by sex, age, region, and causes, were calculated to quantify the temporal trends. Findings In 2019, rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, asthma, multiple sclerosis, psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease accounted 1.59%, 36.17%, 54.71%, 0.09%, 6.84%, 0.60% of overall new IMIDs cases, respectively. The ASR of IMIDs showed substantial regional and global variation with the highest in High SDI region, High-income North America, and United States of America. Throughout human lifespan, the age distribution of incident cases from six IMIDs was quite different. Globally, incident cases of IMIDs increased with an AAPC of 0.68 and the ASR decreased with an AAPC of −0.34 from 1990 to 2019. The incident cases increased across six IMIDs, the ASR of rheumatoid arthritis increased (0.21, 95% CI 0.18, 0.25), while the ASR of asthma (AAPC = −0.41), inflammatory bowel disease (AAPC = −0.72), multiple sclerosis (AAPC = −0.26), psoriasis (AAPC = −0.77), and atopic dermatitis (AAPC = −0.15) decreased. The ASR of overall and six individual IMID increased with SDI at regional and global level. Countries with higher ASR in 1990 experienced a more rapid decrease in ASR. Interpretation The incidence patterns of IMIDs varied considerably across the world. Innovative prevention and integrative management strategy are urgently needed to mitigate the increasing ASR of rheumatoid arthritis and upsurging new cases of other five IMIDs, respectively. Funding The Global Burden of Disease Study is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The project funded by Scientific Research Fund of Sichuan Academy of Medical Sciences & Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital (2022QN38)

Meningococcal ACWYX Conjugate Vaccine in 2-to-29-Year-Olds in Mali and Gambia.

BACKGROUND: An effective, affordable, multivalent meningococcal conjugate vaccine is needed to prevent epidemic meningitis in the African meningitis belt. Data on the safety and immunogenicity of NmCV-5, a pentavalent vaccine targeting the A, C, W, Y, and X serogroups, have been limited. METHODS: We conducted a phase 3, noninferiority trial involving healthy 2-to-29-year-olds in Mali and Gambia. Participants were randomly assigned in a 2:1 ratio to receive a single intramuscular dose of NmCV-5 or the quadrivalent vaccine MenACWY-D. Immunogenicity was assessed at day 28. The noninferiority of NmCV-5 to MenACWY-D was assessed on the basis of the difference in the percentage of participants with a seroresponse (defined as prespecified changes in titer; margin, lower limit of the 96% confidence interval [CI] above -10 percentage points) or geometric mean titer (GMT) ratios (margin, lower limit of the 98.98% CI >0.5). Serogroup X responses in the NmCV-5 group were compared with the lowest response among the MenACWY-D serogroups. Safety was also assessed. RESULTS: A total of 1800 participants received NmCV-5 or MenACWY-D. In the NmCV-5 group, the percentage of participants with a seroresponse ranged from 70.5% (95% CI, 67.8 to 73.2) for serogroup A to 98.5% (95% CI, 97.6 to 99.2) for serogroup W; the percentage with a serogroup X response was 97.2% (95% CI, 96.0 to 98.1). The overall difference between the two vaccines in seroresponse for the four shared serogroups ranged from 1.2 percentage points (96% CI, -0.3 to 3.1) for serogroup W to 20.5 percentage points (96% CI, 15.4 to 25.6) for serogroup A. The overall GMT ratios for the four shared serogroups ranged from 1.7 (98.98% CI, 1.5 to 1.9) for serogroup A to 2.8 (98.98% CI, 2.3 to 3.5) for serogroup C. The serogroup X component of the NmCV-5 vaccine generated seroresponses and GMTs that met the prespecified noninferiority criteria. The incidence of systemic adverse events was similar in the two groups (11.1% in the NmCV-5 group and 9.2% in the MenACWY-D group). CONCLUSIONS: For all four serotypes in common with the MenACWY-D vaccine, the NmCV-5 vaccine elicited immune responses that were noninferior to those elicited by the MenACWY-D vaccine. NmCV-5 also elicited immune responses to serogroup X. No safety concerns were evident. (Funded by the U.K. Foreign, Commonwealth, and Development Office and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03964012.)