Biological variation of measured and estimated glomerular filtration rate in patients with chronic kidney disease

When assessing changes in glomerular filtration rate (GFR) it is important to differentiate pathological change from intrinsic biological and analytical variation. GFR is measured using complex reference methods (e.g. iohexol clearance). In clinical practice measurement of creatinine and cystatin C is used in equations (e.g. Modification of Diet in Renal Disease [MDRD] or Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration [CKD-EPI]) to provide estimated GFR. We studied biological variability of measured and estimated GFR in twenty nephrology outpatients (10 male, 10 female; median age 71, range 50-80 years) with moderate CKD (GFR 30-59 mL/min/1.73 m2). Patients underwent weekly GFR measurement by iohexol clearance over four consecutive weeks. Simultaneously GFR was estimated using the MDRD, CKD-EPIcreatinine, CKD-EPIcystatinC and CKD-EPIcreatinine+cystatinC equations. Within-subject biological variation (CVI) expressed as a percentage [95% CI] for the MDRD (5.0% [4.3-6.1]), CKD-EPIcreatinine (5.3% [4.5-6.4]), CKD-EPIcystatinC (5.3% [4.5-6.5]), and CKD-EPIcreatinine+cystatinC (5.0% [4.3-6.2]) equations were broadly equivalent. CVI values for MDRD and CKD- EPIcreatinine+cystatinC were lower (p=0.027 and p=0.022 respectively) than that of measured GFR (6.7% [5.6-8.2]). Reference change values (RCV), the point at which a true change in a biomarker in an individual can be inferred to have occurred with 95% probability were calculated: using the MDRD equation, positive and negative RCVs were 15.1% and 13.1% respectively. If an individual’s baseline MDRD estimated GFR (mL/min/1.73 m2) was 59, significant increases or decreases would be to values >68 or <51 respectively. Within-subject variability of estimated GFR is lower than measured GFR. RCVs can be used to understand GFR changes in clinical practice

Evaluating the cost-effectiveness of diagnostic tests in combination: is it important to allow for performance dependency?

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the importance of accounting for potential performance dependency when evaluating the cost-effectiveness of two diagnostic tests used in combination. METHODS: Two meta-analysis models were fitted to estimate the diagnostic accuracy of Wells score and Ddimer in combination. The first model assumes that the two tests perform independently of one another; thus, two separate meta-analyses were fitted to the Ddimer and Wells score data and then combined. The second model allows for any performance dependency of the two tests by incorporating published data on the accuracy of Ddimer stratified by Wells score, as well as studies of Ddimer alone and Wells score alone. The results from the two meta-analysis models were input into a decision model to assess the impact that assumptions regarding performance dependency have on the overall cost-effectiveness of the tests. RESULTS: The results highlight the importance of accounting for potential performance dependency when evaluating the cost-effectiveness of diagnostic tests used in combination. In our example, assuming the diagnostic performance of the two tests to be independent resulted in the strategy "Wells score moderate/high risk treated for DVT and Wells score low risk tested further with Ddimer" being identified as the most cost-effective at the £20,000 willingness-to-pay threshold (probability cost-effective 0.8). However, when performance dependency is modeled, the most cost-effective strategies were "Ddimer alone" and "Wells score low/moderate risk discharged and Wells score high risk further tested with Ddimer" (probability cost-effective 0.4). CONCLUSIONS: When evaluating the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of diagnostic tests used in combination, failure to account for diagnostic performance dependency may lead to erroneous results and nonoptimal decision making

A review of the quantitative effectiveness evidence synthesis methods used in public health intervention guidelines

Background: The complexity of public health interventions create challenges in evaluating their effectiveness. There have been huge advancements in quantitative evidence synthesis methods development (including meta-analysis) for dealing with heterogeneity of intervention effects, inappropriate ‘lumping’ of interventions, adjusting for different populations and outcomes and the inclusion of various study types. Growing awareness of the importance of using all available evidence has led to the publication of guidance documents for implementing methods to improve decision making by answering policy relevant questions. Methods: The first part of this paper reviews the methods used to synthesise quantitative effectiveness evidence in public health guidelines by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) that had been published or updated since the previous review in 2012 until the 19th August 2019.The second part of this paper provides an update of the statistical methods and explains how they address issues related to evaluating effectiveness evidence of public health interventions. Results: The proportion of NICE public health guidelines that used a meta-analysis as part of the synthesis of effectiveness evidence has increased since the previous review in 2012 from 23% (9 out of 39) to 31% (14 out of 45). The proportion of NICE guidelines that synthesised the evidence using only a narrative review decreased from 74% (29 out of 39) to 60% (27 out of 45).An application in the prevention of accidents in children at home illustrated how the choice of synthesis methods can enable more informed decision making by defining and estimating the effectiveness of more distinct interventions, including combinations of intervention components, and identifying subgroups in which interventions are most effective. Conclusions: Despite methodology development and the publication of guidance documents to address issues in public health intervention evaluation since the original review, NICE public health guidelines are not making full use of meta-analysis and other tools that would provide decision makers with fuller information with which to develop policy. There is an evident need to facilitate the translation of the synthesis methods into a public health context and encourage the use of methods to improve decision making

Synthesizing existing evidence to design future trials: survey of methodologists from European institutions.

BACKGROUND: 'Conditional trial design' is a framework for efficiently planning new clinical trials based on a network of relevant existing trials. The framework considers whether new trials are required and how the existing evidence can be used to answer the research question and plan future research. The potential of this approach has not been fully realized. METHODS: We conducted an online survey among trial statisticians, methodologists, and users of evidence synthesis research using referral sampling to capture opinions about the conditional trial design framework and current practices among clinical researchers. The questions included in the survey were related to the decision of whether a meta-analysis answers the research question, the optimal way to synthesize available evidence, which relates to the acceptability of network meta-analysis, and the use of evidence synthesis in the planning of new studies. RESULTS: In total, 76 researchers completed the survey. Two out of three survey participants (65%) were willing to possibly or definitely consider using evidence synthesis to design a future clinical trial and around half of the participants would give priority to such a trial design. The median rating of the frequency of using such a trial design was 0.41 on a scale from 0 (never) to 1 (always). Major barriers to adopting conditional trial design include the current regulatory paradigm and the policies of funding agencies and sponsors. CONCLUSIONS: Participants reported moderate interest in using evidence synthesis methods in the design of future trials. They indicated that a major paradigm shift is required before the use of network meta-analysis is regularly employed in the design of trials

Methodologies for systematic reviews with meta-analysis of randomised clinical trials in pain, anaesthesia, and perioperative medicine

Systematic reviews and meta-analyses (SRMAs) are increasing in popularity, but should they be used to inform clinical decision-making in anaesthesia? We present evidence that the certainty of evidence from SRMAs in anaesthesia (and in general) may be unacceptably low because of risks of bias exaggerating treatment effects, unexplained heterogeneity reducing certainty in estimates, random errors, and widespread prevalence of publication bias. We also present the latest methodological advances to help improve the certainty of evidence from SRMAs. The target audience includes both review authors and practising clinicians to help with SRMA appraisal. Issues discussed include minimising risks of bias from included trials, trial sequential analysis to reduce random error, updated methods for presenting effect estimates, and novel publication bias tests for commonly used outcome measures. These methods can help to reduce spurious conclusions on clinical significance, explain statistical heterogeneity, and reduce false positives when evaluating small-study effects. By reducing concerns in these domains of Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation, it should help improve the certainty of evidence from SRMAs used for decision-making in anaesthesia, pain, and perioperative medicine

Pharmacological and electronic cigarette interventions for smoking cessation in adults: component network meta-analyses

Objectives: This is a protocol for a Cochrane Review (intervention). The objectives are as follows:. To conduct component network meta-analyses (cNMAs) to investigate the comparative effectiveness, safety and tolerability of different smoking cessation pharmacotherapies and electronic cigarettes (EC), singly and combined, when helping people to stop smoking tobacco. To investigate:. how the different characteristics of smoking cessation pharmacotherapies and EC interventions (e.g. intervention subtype, dose, length of intervention, whether the intervention is used prequit as well as from quit date or from quit date only) influence efficacy, safety and tolerability; whether identifiable participant characteristics and behavioural support suggest different optimal intervention strategies

Enamel Caries Detection and Diagnosis: An Analysis of Systematic Reviews

Detection and diagnosis of caries—typically undertaken through a visual-tactile examination, often with supporting radiographic investigations—is commonly regarded as being broadly effective at detecting caries that has progressed into dentine and reached a threshold where restoration is necessary. With earlier detection comes an opportunity to stabilize disease or even remineralize the tooth surface, maximizing retention of tooth tissue and preventing a lifelong cycle of restoration. We undertook a formal comparative analysis of the diagnostic accuracy of different technologies to detect and inform the diagnosis of early caries using published Cochrane systematic reviews. Forming the basis of our comparative analysis were 5 Cochrane diagnostic test accuracy systematic reviews evaluating fluorescence, visual or visual-tactile classification systems, imaging, transillumination and optical coherence tomography, and electrical conductance or impedance technologies. Acceptable reference standards included histology, operative exploration, or enhanced visual assessment (with or without tooth separation) as appropriate. We conducted 2 analyses based on study design: a fully within-study, within-person analysis and a network meta-analysis based on direct and indirect comparisons. Nineteen studies provided data for the fully within-person analysis and 64 studies for the network meta-analysis. Of the 5 technologies evaluated, the greatest pairwise differences were observed in summary sensitivity points for imaging and all other technologies, but summary specificity points were broadly similar. For both analyses, the wide 95% prediction intervals indicated the uncertainty of future diagnostic accuracy across all technologies. The certainty of evidence was low, downgraded for study limitations, inconsistency, and indirectness. Summary estimates of diagnostic accuracy for most technologies indicate that the degree of certitude with which a decision is made regarding the presence or absence of disease may be enhanced with the use of such devices. However, given the broad prediction intervals, it is challenging to predict their accuracy in any future “real world” context

Enamel Caries Detection and Diagnosis: An Analysis of Systematic Reviews

Detection and diagnosis of caries—typically undertaken through a visual-tactile examination, often with supporting radiographic investigations—is commonly regarded as being broadly effective at detecting caries that has progressed into dentine and reached a threshold where restoration is necessary. With earlier detection comes an opportunity to stabilize disease or even remineralize the tooth surface, maximizing retention of tooth tissue and preventing a lifelong cycle of restoration. We undertook a formal comparative analysis of the diagnostic accuracy of different technologies to detect and inform the diagnosis of early caries using published Cochrane systematic reviews. Forming the basis of our comparative analysis were 5 Cochrane diagnostic test accuracy systematic reviews evaluating fluorescence, visual or visual-tactile classification systems, imaging, transillumination and optical coherence tomography, and electrical conductance or impedance technologies. Acceptable reference standards included histology, operative exploration, or enhanced visual assessment (with or without tooth separation) as appropriate. We conducted 2 analyses based on study design: a fully within-study, within-person analysis and a network meta-analysis based on direct and indirect comparisons. Nineteen studies provided data for the fully within-person analysis and 64 studies for the network meta-analysis. Of the 5 technologies evaluated, the greatest pairwise differences were observed in summary sensitivity points for imaging and all other technologies, but summary specificity points were broadly similar. For both analyses, the wide 95% prediction intervals indicated the uncertainty of future diagnostic accuracy across all technologies. The certainty of evidence was low, downgraded for study limitations, inconsistency, and indirectness. Summary estimates of diagnostic accuracy for most technologies indicate that the degree of certitude with which a decision is made regarding the presence or absence of disease may be enhanced with the use of such devices. However, given the broad prediction intervals, it is challenging to predict their accuracy in any future “real world” context

Typology of mental health peer support work components: systematised review and expert consultation

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