A risk profile for identifying community-dwelling elderly with a highrisk of recurrent falling: results of a 3-year prospective study

Introduction: The aim of the prospective study reported here was to develop a risk profile that can be used to identify community-dwelling elderly at a high risk of recurrent falling. Materials and methods: The study was designed as a 3-year prospective cohort study. A total of 1365 community-dwelling persons, aged 65 years and older, of the population-based Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam participated in the study. During an interview in 1995/1996, physical, cognitive, emotional and social aspects of functioning were assessed. A follow-up on the number of falls and fractures was conducted during a 3-year period using fall calendars that participants filled out weekly. Recurrent fallers were identified as those who fell at least twice within a 6-month period during the 3-year follow-up. Results: The incidence of recurrent falls at the 3-year follow-up point was 24.9% in women and 24.4% in men. Of the respondents, 5.5% reported a total of 87 fractures that resulted from a fall, including 20 hip fractures, 21 wrist fractures and seven humerus fractures. Recurrent fallers were more prone to have a fall-related fracture than those who were not defined as recurrent fallers (11.9% vs. 3.4%; OR: 3.8; 95% CI: 2.3-6.1). Backward logistic regression analysis identified the following predictors in the risk profile for recurrent falling: two or more previous falls, dizziness, functional limitations, weak grip strength, low body weight, fear of falling, the presence of dogs/cats in the household, a high educational level, drinking 18 or more alcoholic consumptions per week and two interaction terms (high educationx18 or more alcohol consumptions per week and two or more previous falls x fear of falling) (AUC=0.71). Discussion: At a cut-off point of 5 on the total risk score (range 0-30), the model predicted recurrent falling with a sensitivity of 59% and a specificity of 71%. At a cut-off point of 10, the sensitivity and specificity were 31% and 92%, respectively. A risk profile including nine predictors that can easily be assessed seems to be a useful tool for the identification of community-dwelling elderly with a high risk of recurrent falling. © International Osteoporosis Foundation and National Osteoporosis Foundation 2006

Occupational choice, number of entrepreneurs and output: theory and empirical evidence with Spanish data

This paper extends the (Lucas, Bell J Econ 9:508–523,1978) model of occupational choices by individuals with different skills, beyond the simple options of self-employment or wage-employment, by including a second choice for the self-employed. That is, an option to hire employees and so become self-employed with employees (SEWEs), or to be self-employed without employees (SEWNEs). We solve for the market equilibrium and examine the sensitivity of relative sizes of occupational groups, and of the level of productivity, to changes in the exogenous parameters. The results show that the positive (negative) association between number of SEWEs (SEWNEs) and productivity, observed in the Spanish data, can be explained, under certain conditions, as the result of cross-region and time differences in average skills. These findings point to the importance of distinguishing between SEWEs and SEWNEs in drawing valid conclusions concerning any link between entrepreneurship and economic development

Is there a U-shaped association between physical activity and falling in older persons?

Summary: This study tests whether the relationship between physical activity and (recurrent) falling is U-shaped. Among 1,337 community-dwelling older persons, no evidence for a nonlinear association was found. If all older persons increase their physical activity level with 100 units, 4% may be prevented to become recurrent fallers. Introduction: Previous studies suggest a U-shaped relationship between physical activity and falling. This study tests this hypothesis and examines whether this relationship is modified by level of physical functioning. Methods: Community-dwelling persons (65+) from the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam (LASA) were prospectively followed on falls for 3 years after baseline assessment in 1995/1996 (n=1,337). Outcome measures were time to first fall and time to recurrent falling. The LASA Physical Activity Questionnaire was used to calculate physical activity in minutes per day weighted for intensity (range 0-2000). Physical functioning was measured with physical performance tests and self reported functional limitations. Confounders were age, sex, body mass index, chronic diseases, psychotropic medication, cognitive functioning, depressive symptoms, and fear of falling. Results: No evidence for a nonlinear association was found (p for physical activity > 0.20). No significant association was found between physical activity and time to first fall. An increase in physical activity of 100 units led to a 4% decrease in risk of recurrent falling (adjusted hazard ratio 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.92, 0.99). No interactions with physical performance or functional limitations were found (p>0.50). Conclusions: The hypothesized U-shaped relationship between physical activity and falling could not be confirmed. At higher levels of physical activity, the risk of recurrent falling decreased, while no association was found with fall risk

Identification of elderly fallers by muscle strength measures

For efficient prevention of falls among older adults, individuals at a high risk of falling need to be identified. In this study, we searched for muscle strength measures that best identified those individuals who would fall after a gait perturbation and those who recovered their balance. Seventeen healthy older adults performed a range of muscle strength tests. We measured maximum and rate of development of ankle plantar flexion moment, knee extension moment and whole leg push-off force, as well as maximum jump height and hand grip strength. Subsequently, their capacity to regain balance after tripping over an obstacle was determined experimentally. Seven of the participants were classified as fallers based on the tripping outcome. Maximum isometric push-off force in a leg press apparatus was the best measure to identify the fallers, as cross-validation of a discriminant model with this variable resulted in the best classification (86% sensitivity and 90% specificity). Jump height and hand grip strength were strongly correlated to leg press force (r = 0.82 and 0.59, respectively) and can also be used to identify fallers, although with slightly lower specificity. These results indicate that whole leg extension strength is associated with the ability to prevent a fall after a gait perturbation and might be used to identify the elderly at risk of falling

Process factors explaining the ineffectiveness of a multidisciplinary fall prevention programme: A process evaluation

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Falls are a major health threat to older community-living people, and initiatives to prevent falls should be a public health priority. We evaluated a Dutch version of a successful British fall prevention programme. Results of this Dutch study showed no effects on falls or daily functioning. In parallel to the effect evaluation, we carried out a detailed process evaluation to assess the feasibility of our multidisciplinary fall prevention programme. The present study reports on the results of this process evaluation.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Our fall prevention programme comprised a medical and occupational-therapy assessment, resulting in recommendations and/or referrals to other services if indicated. We used self-administered questionnaires, structured telephone interviews, structured recording forms, structured face-to-face interviews and a plenary group discussion to collect data from participants allocated to the intervention group (n = 166) and from all practitioners who performed the assessments (n = 8). The following outcomes were assessed: the extent to which the multidisciplinary fall prevention programme was performed according to protocol, the nature of the recommendations and referrals provided to the participants, participants' self-reported compliance and participants' and practitioners' opinions about the programme.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Both participants and practitioners judged the programme to be feasible. The programme was largely performed according to protocol. The number of referrals and recommendations ensuing from the medical assessment was relatively small. Participants' self-reported compliance as regards contacting their GP to be informed of the recommendations and/or referrals was low to moderate. However, self-reported compliance with such referrals and recommendations was reasonable to good. A large majority of participants reported they had benefited from the programme.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The results of the present study show that the programme was feasible for both practitioners and participants. Main factors that seem to be responsible for the lack of effectiveness are the relatively low number of referrals and recommendations ensuing from the medical assessments and participants' low compliance as regards contacting their GP about the results of the medical assessment. We do not recommend implementing the programme in its present form in regular care.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>ISRCTN64716113</p

To screen or not to screen for peripheral arterial disease in subjects aged 80 and over in primary health care: a cross-sectional analysis from the BELFRAIL study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Peripheral arterial disease (PAD) is common in older people. An ankle-brachial index (ABI) < 0.9 can be used as an indicator of PAD. Patients with low ABI have increased mortality and a higher risk of serious cardiovascular morbidity. However, because 80% of the patients are asymptomatic, PAD remains unrecognised in a large group of patients. The aims of this study were 1) to examine the prevalence of reduced ABI in subjects aged 80 and over, 2) to determine the diagnostic accuracy of the medical history and clinical examination for reduced ABI and 3) to investigate the difference in functioning and physical activity between patients with and without reduced ABI.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A cross-sectional study embedded within the BELFRAIL study. A general practitioner (GP) centre, located in Hoeilaart, Belgium, recruited 239 patients aged 80 or older. Only three criteria for exclusion were used: urgent medical need, palliative situation and known serious dementia. The GP recorded the medical history and performed a clinical examination. The clinical research assistant performed an extensive examination including Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS-15), Activities of Daily Living (ADL), Tinetti test and the LASA Physical Activity Questionnaire (LAPAQ). ABI was measured using an automatic oscillometric appliance.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In 40% of patients, a reduced ABI was found. Cardiovascular risk factors were unable to identify patients with low ABI. A negative correlation was found between the number of cardiovascular morbidities and ABI. Cardiovascular morbidity had a sensitivity of 65.7% (95% CI 53.4-76.7) and a specificity of 48.6% (95% CI 38.7-58.5). Palpation of the peripheral arteries showed the highest negative predictive value (77.7% (95% CI 71.8-82.9)). The LAPAQ score was significantly lower in the group with reduced ABI.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The prevalence of PAD is very high in patients aged 80 and over in general practice. The clinical examination, cardiovascular risk factors and the presence of cardiovascular morbidity were not able to identify patients with a low ABI. A screening strategy for PAD by determining ABI could be considered if effective interventions for those aged 80 and over with a low ABI become available through future research.</p

The BELFRAIL (BFC80+) study: a population-based prospective cohort study of the very elderly in Belgium

In coming decades the proportion of very elderly people living in the Western world will dramatically increase. This forthcoming "grey epidemic" will lead to an explosion of chronic diseases. In order to anticipate booming health care expenditures and to assure that social security is funded in the future, research focusing on the relationship between chronic diseases, frailty and disability is needed. The general aim of the BELFRAIL cohort study (BFC80+) is to study the dynamic interaction between health, frailty and disability in a multi-system approach focusing on cardiac dysfunction and chronic heart failure, lung function, sarcopenia, renal insufficiency and immunosenescence

The entrepreneurial ladder, gender, and regional development

Gender differences at five levels of entrepreneurial engagement are explained using country effects while controlling for individual-level variables. We distinguish between individuals who have never considered starting up a business, those who are thinking about it, and nascent, young, and established entrepreneurs. We use a large international dataset that includes respondents from 32 European countries, three Asian countries, and the United States. Findings show that cross-country gender differences are largest in the first and final transitions of the entrepreneurial process. In par

Condition-specific or generic preference-based measures in oncology? A comparison of the EORTC-8D and the EQ-5D-3L.

PURPOSE: It has been argued that generic health-related quality of life measures are not sensitive to certain disease-specific improvements; condition-specific preference-based measures may offer a better alternative. This paper assesses the validity, responsiveness and sensitivity of a cancer-specific preference-based measure, the EORTC-8D, relative to the EQ-5D-3L. METHODS: A longitudinal prospective population-based cancer genomic cohort, Cancer 2015, was utilised in the analysis. EQ-5D-3L and the EORTC QLQ-C30 (which gives EORTC-8D values) were asked at baseline (diagnosis) and at various follow-up points (3 months, 6 months, 12 months). Baseline values were assessed for convergent validity, ceiling effects, agreement and sensitivity. Quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were estimated and similarly assessed. Multivariate regression analyses were employed to understand the determinants of the difference in QALYs. RESULTS: Complete case analysis of 1678 patients found that the EQ-5D-3L values at baseline were significantly lower than the EORTC-8D values (0.748 vs 0.829, p < 0.001). While the correlation between the instruments was high, agreement between the instruments was poor. The baseline health state values using both instruments were found to be sensitive to a number of patient and disease characteristics, and discrimination between disease states was found to be similar. Mean generic QALYs (estimated using the EQ-5D-3L) were significantly lower than condition-specific QALYs (estimated using the EORTC-8D) (0.860 vs 0.909, p < 0.001). The discriminatory power of both QALYs was similar. CONCLUSIONS: When comparing a generic and condition-specific preference-based instrument, divergences are apparent in both baseline health state values and in the estimated QALYs over time for cancer patients. The variability in sensitivity between the baseline values and the QALY estimations means researchers and decision makers are advised to be cautious if using the instruments interchangeably