Parameter and model uncertainty in a life-table model for fine particles (PM2.5): a statistical modeling study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The estimation of health impacts involves often uncertain input variables and assumptions which have to be incorporated into the model structure. These uncertainties may have significant effects on the results obtained with model, and, thus, on decision making. Fine particles (PM_2.5) are believed to cause major health impacts, and, consequently, uncertainties in their health impact assessment have clear relevance to policy-making. We studied the effects of various uncertain input variables by building a life-table model for fine particles.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Life-expectancy of the Helsinki metropolitan area population and the change in life-expectancy due to fine particle exposures were predicted using a life-table model. A number of parameter and model uncertainties were estimated. Sensitivity analysis for input variables was performed by calculating rank-order correlations between input and output variables. The studied model uncertainties were (i) plausibility of mortality outcomes and (ii) lag, and parameter uncertainties (iii) exposure-response coefficients for different mortality outcomes, and (iv) exposure estimates for different age groups. The monetary value of the years-of-life-lost and the relative importance of the uncertainties related to monetary valuation were predicted to compare the relative importance of the monetary valuation on the health effect uncertainties.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The magnitude of the health effects costs depended mostly on discount rate, exposure-response coefficient, and plausibility of the cardiopulmonary mortality. Other mortality outcomes (lung cancer, other non-accidental and infant mortality) and lag had only minor impact on the output. The results highlight the importance of the uncertainties associated with cardiopulmonary mortality in the fine particle impact assessment when compared with other uncertainties.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>When estimating life-expectancy, the estimates used for cardiopulmonary exposure-response coefficient, discount rate, and plausibility require careful assessment, while complicated lag estimates can be omitted without this having any major effect on the results.</p

Geographical trends in the yolk carotenoid composition of the pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca)

Carotenoids in the egg yolks of birds are considered to be important antioxidants and immune stimulants during the rapid growth of embryos. Yolk carotenoid composition is strongly affected by the carotenoid composition of the female’s diet at the time of egg formation. Spatial and temporal differences in carotenoid availability may thus be reflected in yolk concentrations. To assess whether yolk carotenoid concentrations or carotenoid profiles show any large-scale geographical trends or differences among habitats, we collected yolk samples from 16 European populations of the pied flycatcher, Ficedula hypoleuca. We found that the concentrations and proportions of lutein and some other xanthophylls in the egg yolks decreased from Central Europe northwards. The most southern population (which is also the one found at the highest altitude) also showed relatively low carotenoid levels. Concentrations of β-carotene and zeaxanthin did not show any obvious geographical gradients. Egg yolks also contained proportionally more lutein and other xanthophylls in deciduous than in mixed or coniferous habitats. We suggest that latitudinal gradients in lutein and xanthophylls reflect the lower availability of lutein-rich food items in the northern F. hypoleuca populations and in montane southern populations, which start egg-laying earlier relative to tree phenology than the Central European populations. Similarly, among-habitat variation is likely to reflect the better availability of lutein-rich food in deciduous forests. Our study is the first to indicate that the concentration and profile of yolk carotenoids may show large-scale spatial variation among populations in different parts of the species’ geographical range. Further studies are needed to test the fitness effects of this geographical variation

Heritable variation in maternally derived yolk androgens, thyroid hormones and immune factors

Maternal reproductive investment can critically influence offspring phenotype, and thus these maternal effects are expected to be under strong natural selection. Knowledge on the extent of heritable variation in the physiological mechanisms underlying maternal effects is however limited. In birds, resource allocation to eggs is a key mechanism for mothers to affect their offspring and different components of the egg may or may not be independently adjusted. We studied the heritability of egg components and their genetic and phenotypic covariation in great tits (Parus major), using captive-bred full siblings of wild origin. Egg mass, testosterone (T) and androstenedione (A4) hormone concentrations showed moderate heritability, in agreement with earlier findings. Interestingly, yolk triiodothyronine hormone (T3), but not its precursor, thyroxine hormone (T4), concentration was heritable. An immune factor, albumen lysozyme, showed moderate heritability, but yolk immunoglobulins (IgY) did not. The genetic correlation estimates were moderate but statistically nonsignificant; a trend for a positive genetic correlation was found between A4 and egg mass, T and lysozyme and IgY and lysozyme, respectively. Interestingly, phenotypic correlations were found only between A4 and T, and T4 and T3, respectively. Given that these egg components are associated with fitness-related traits in the offspring (and mother), and that we show that some components are heritable, it opens the possibility that natural selection may shape the rate and direction of phenotypic change via egg composition

A meta-analysis of correlated behaviours with implications for behavioural syndromes: Mean effect size, publication bias, phylogenetic effects and the role of mediator variables

In evolutionary and behavioural ecology, increasing attention is being paid to the fact that functionally distinct behaviours are often not independent from each other. Such phenomenon is labelled as behavioural syndrome and is usually demonstrated by phenotypic correlations between behaviours like activity, exploration, aggression and risk-taking across individuals in a population. However, published studies disagree on the strength, and even on the existence of such relationships. To make general inferences from this mixed evidence, we quantitatively reviewed the literature using modern meta-analytic approaches. Based on a large dataset, we investigated the overall relationship between behaviours that are expected to form a syndrome and tested which factors can mediate heterogeneities in study outcomes. The average strength of the phenotypic correlation between behaviours was weak; we found no effect of the phylogeny of species but did observe significant publication bias. However, even accounting for this bias, the mean effect size was positive and statistically different from zero (r = 0. 198). Effect sizes showed considerable heterogeneity within species, implying a role for population-specific adaptation to environmental factors and/or between-study differences in research design. There was a significant positive association between absolute effect size and repeatability of behaviours, suggesting that within-individual variation of behavioural traits can set up an upper limit for the strength of the detected phenotypic correlations. Moreover, spatial overlap between the contexts in which different behaviours were assayed increased the magnitude of the association. The small effect size for the focal relationship implies that a huge sample size would be required to demonstrate a correlation between behaviours with sufficient statistical power, which is fulfilled only in very few studies. This suggests that behavioural syndromes often remain undetected and unpublished. Collectively, our meta-analysis revealed a number of points that might be worth to consider in the future study of behavioural syndromes. © 2012 The Author(s).Peer Reviewe