Application of flood risk modelling in a web-based geospatial decision support tool for coastal adaptation to climate change

This is the discussion paper that was under review for the for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).The final paper is available from the publisher via DOI: 10.5194/nhess-15-1457-2015A pressing problem facing coastal decision makers is the conversion of “high-level” but plausible climate change assessments into an effective basis for climate change adaptation at the local scale. Here, we describe a web-based, geospatial decision support tool (DST) that provides an assessment of the potential flood risk for populated coastal lowlands arising from future sea-level rise, coastal storms, and high river flows. This DST has been developed to support operational and strategic decision making by enabling the user to explore the flood hazard from extreme events, changes in the extent of the flood-prone areas with sea-level rise, and thresholds of sea-level rise where current policy and resource options are no longer viable. The DST is built in an open-source GIS that uses freely available geospatial data. Flood risk assessments from a combination of LISFLOODFP and SWAB (Shallow Water And Boussinesq) models are embedded within the tool; the user interface enables interrogation of different combinations of coastal and river events under rising-sea-level scenarios. Users can readily vary the input parameters (sea level, storms, wave height and river flow) relative to the present-day topography and infrastructure to identify combinations where significant regime shifts or “tipping points” occur. Two case studies demonstrate the attributes of the DST with respect to the wider coastal community and the UK energy sector. Examples report on the assets at risk and illustrate the extent of flooding in relation to infrastructure access. This informs an economic assessment of potential losses due to climate change and thus provides local authorities and energy operators with essential information on the feasibility of investment for building resilience into vulnerable components of their area of responsibilit

Astrocytes in neuroendocrine systems: An overview

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley via the DOI in this record A class of glial cell, astrocytes are highly abundant in the CNS. In addition to maintaining tissue homeostasis, astrocytes regulate neuronal communication and synaptic plasticity. There is an ever-increasing appreciation that astrocytes are involved in the regulation of physiology and behaviour in normal and pathological states, including within neuroendocrine systems. Indeed, astrocytes are direct targets of hormone action in the CNS, via receptors expressed on their surface, and are also a source of regulatory neuropeptides, neurotransmitters, and gliotransmitters. Furthermore, as part of the neurovascular unit, astrocytes can regulate hormone entry into the CNS. This review is intended to provide an overview of how astrocytes are impacted by and contribute to the regulation of a diverse range of neuroendocrine systems: energy homeostasis and metabolism, reproduction, fluid homeostasis, the stress response, and circadian rhythms. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.Medical Research Council (MRC)Diabetes UKUniversity of Exete

The Physical Activity Wearables in the Police Force (PAW-Force) study: acceptability and impact

Abstract Background Policing is a highly stressful and increasingly sedentary occupation. The study aim was to assess the acceptability and impact of a mobile health (mHealth) technology intervention (Fitbit® activity monitor and ‘Bupa Boost’ smartphone app) to promote physical activity (PA) and reduce sedentary time in the police force. Methods Single-group, pre-post, mixed methods pilot study. Police officers and staff (n = 180) were recruited from two police forces in South West England. Participants used the technology for 12 weeks (an ‘individual’ then ‘social’ phase) followed by 5 months of optional use. Data sources included Fitbit®-recorded objective step count, questionnaire surveys and semi-structured interviews (n = 32). Outcome assessment points were baseline (week 0), mid-intervention (week 6), post-intervention (week 12) and follow-up (month 8). Paired t-tests were used to investigate changes in quantitative outcomes. Qualitative analysis involved framework and thematic analysis. Results Changes in mean daily step count were non-significant (p &gt; 0.05), but self-reported PA increased in the short term (e.g. + 465.4 MET-minutes/week total PA baseline to week 12, p = 0.011) and longer term (e.g. + 420.5 MET-minutes/week moderate-to-vigorous PA baseline to month 8, p = 0.024). The greatest impact on behaviour was perceived by less active officers and staff. There were no significant changes in sedentary time; the qualitative findings highlighted the importance of context and external influences on behaviour. There were no statistically significant changes (all p-values &gt; 0.05) in any secondary outcomes (physical and mental health-related quality of life, perceived stress and perceived productivity), with the exception of an improvement in mental health-related quality of life (SF-12 mental component score + 1.75 points, p = 0.020) from baseline to month 8. Engagement with and perceived acceptability of the intervention was high overall, but a small number of participants reported negative physical (skin irritation) and psychological (feelings of guilt and anxiety) consequences of technology use. Individual app features (such as goal-setting and self-monitoring) were generally preferred to social components (social comparison, competitions and support). Conclusions mHealth technology is an acceptable and potentially impactful intervention for increasing PA in the police force. The intervention was less useful for reducing sedentary time and the impact on secondary outcomes is unclear. Trial registration NCT03169179 (registered 30th May 2017). </jats:sec

A fourth generation, anomalous like-sign dimuon charge asymmetry and the LHC

A fourth chiral generation, with $m_{t^\prime}$ in the range $\sim (300 - 500)$ GeV and a moderate value of the CP-violating phase can explain the anomalous like-sign dimuon charge asymmetry observed recently by the D0 collaboration. The required parameters are found to be consistent with constraints from other $B$ and $K$ decays. The presence of such quarks, apart from being detectable in the early stages of the LHC, would also have important consequences in the electroweak symmetry breaking sector.Comment: 18 pages, 9 figures, Figure 1 is modified, more discussions are added in section 2. new references adde

A coastal vulnerability assessment for planning climate resilient infrastructure

publisher: Elsevier articletitle: A coastal vulnerability assessment for planning climate resilient infrastructure journaltitle: Ocean & Coastal Management articlelink: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2018.06.007 content_type: article copyright: © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd

Etiology of Severe Non-malaria Febrile Illness in Northern Tanzania: A Prospective Cohort Study.

The syndrome of fever is a commonly presenting complaint among persons seeking healthcare in low-resource areas, yet the public health community has not approached fever in a comprehensive manner. In many areas, malaria is over-diagnosed, and patients without malaria have poor outcomes. We prospectively studied a cohort of 870 pediatric and adult febrile admissions to two hospitals in northern Tanzania over the period of one year using conventional standard diagnostic tests to establish fever etiology. Malaria was the clinical diagnosis for 528 (60.7%), but was the actual cause of fever in only 14 (1.6%). By contrast, bacterial, mycobacterial, and fungal bloodstream infections accounted for 85 (9.8%), 14 (1.6%), and 25 (2.9%) febrile admissions, respectively. Acute bacterial zoonoses were identified among 118 (26.2%) of febrile admissions; 16 (13.6%) had brucellosis, 40 (33.9%) leptospirosis, 24 (20.3%) had Q fever, 36 (30.5%) had spotted fever group rickettsioses, and 2 (1.8%) had typhus group rickettsioses. In addition, 55 (7.9%) participants had a confirmed acute arbovirus infection, all due to chikungunya. No patient had a bacterial zoonosis or an arbovirus infection included in the admission differential diagnosis. Malaria was uncommon and over-diagnosed, whereas invasive infections were underappreciated. Bacterial zoonoses and arbovirus infections were highly prevalent yet overlooked. An integrated approach to the syndrome of fever in resource-limited areas is needed to improve patient outcomes and to rationally target disease control efforts

Beautiful Mirrors at the LHC

We explore the "Beautiful Mirrors" model, which aims to explain the measured value of $A^b_{FB}$, discrepant at the $2.9\sigma$ level. This scenario introduces vector-like quarks which mix with the bottom, subtly affecting its coupling to the $Z$. The spectrum of the new particles consists of two bottom-like quarks and a charge -4/3 quark, all of which have electroweak interactions with the third generation. We explore the phenomenology and discovery reach for these new particles at the LHC, exploring single mirror quark production modes whose rates are proportional to the same mixing parameters which resolve the $A_{FB}^b$ anomaly. We find that for mirror quark masses $\lesssim 500 GeV, a 14 TeV LHC with 300 {\rm fb}^{-1}$ is required to reasonably establish the scenario and extract the relevant mixing parameters.Comment: version to be published in JHE

Organizational factors and depression management in community-based primary care settings

Abstract Background Evidence-based quality improvement models for depression have not been fully implemented in routine primary care settings. To date, few studies have examined the organizational factors associated with depression management in real-world primary care practice. To successfully implement quality improvement models for depression, there must be a better understanding of the relevant organizational structure and processes of the primary care setting. The objective of this study is to describe these organizational features of routine primary care practice, and the organization of depression care, using survey questions derived from an evidence-based framework. Methods We used this framework to implement a survey of 27 practices comprised of 49 unique offices within a large primary care practice network in western Pennsylvania. Survey questions addressed practice structure (e.g., human resources, leadership, information technology (IT) infrastructure, and external incentives) and process features (e.g., staff performance, degree of integrated depression care, and IT performance). Results The results of our survey demonstrated substantial variation across the practice network of organizational factors pertinent to implementation of evidence-based depression management. Notably, quality improvement capability and IT infrastructure were widespread, but specific application to depression care differed between practices, as did coordination and communication tasks surrounding depression treatment. Conclusions The primary care practices in the network that we surveyed are at differing stages in their organization and implementation of evidence-based depression management. Practical surveys such as this may serve to better direct implementation of these quality improvement strategies for depression by improving understanding of the organizational barriers and facilitators that exist within both practices and practice networks. In addition, survey information can inform efforts of individual primary care practices in customizing intervention strategies to improve depression management.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/78269/1/1748-5908-4-84.xmlhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/78269/2/1748-5908-4-84-S1.PDFhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/78269/3/1748-5908-4-84.pdfPeer Reviewe

To respond or not to respond - a personal perspective of intestinal tolerance

For many years, the intestine was one of the poor relations of the immunology world, being a realm inhabited mostly by specialists and those interested in unusual phenomena. However, this has changed dramatically in recent years with the realization of how important the microbiota is in shaping immune function throughout the body, and almost every major immunology institution now includes the intestine as an area of interest. One of the most important aspects of the intestinal immune system is how it discriminates carefully between harmless and harmful antigens, in particular, its ability to generate active tolerance to materials such as commensal bacteria and food proteins. This phenomenon has been recognized for more than 100 years, and it is essential for preventing inflammatory disease in the intestine, but its basis remains enigmatic. Here, I discuss the progress that has been made in understanding oral tolerance during my 40 years in the field and highlight the topics that will be the focus of future research

The Higgs vacuum uplifted: revisiting the electroweak phase transition with a second Higgs doublet

The existence of a second Higgs doublet in Nature could lead to a cosmological first order electroweak phase transition and explain the origin of the matter-antimatter asymmetry in the Universe. We explore the parameter space of such a two-Higgs-doublet-model and show that a first order electroweak phase transition strongly correlates with a significant uplifting of the Higgs vacuum w.r.t. its Standard Model value. We then obtain the spectrum and properties of the new scalars H0, A0 and H± that signal such a phase transition, showing that the decay A0 → H0Z at the LHC and a sizable deviation in the Higgs self-coupling λhhh from its SM value are sensitive indicators of a strongly first order electroweak phase transition in the 2HDM