Bayesian Hierarchical Models Combining Different Study Types and Adjusting for Covariate Imbalances: A Simulation Study to Assess Model Performance

BACKGROUND: Bayesian hierarchical models have been proposed to combine evidence from different types of study designs. However, when combining evidence from randomised and non-randomised controlled studies, imbalances in patient characteristics between study arms may bias the results. The objective of this study was to assess the performance of a proposed Bayesian approach to adjust for imbalances in patient level covariates when combining evidence from both types of study designs. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Simulation techniques, in which the truth is known, were used to generate sets of data for randomised and non-randomised studies. Covariate imbalances between study arms were introduced in the non-randomised studies. The performance of the Bayesian hierarchical model adjusted for imbalances was assessed in terms of bias. The data were also modelled using three other Bayesian approaches for synthesising evidence from randomised and non-randomised studies. The simulations considered six scenarios aimed at assessing the sensitivity of the results to changes in the impact of the imbalances and the relative number and size of studies of each type. For all six scenarios considered, the Bayesian hierarchical model adjusted for differences within studies gave results that were unbiased and closest to the true value compared to the other models. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Where informed health care decision making requires the synthesis of evidence from randomised and non-randomised study designs, the proposed hierarchical Bayesian method adjusted for differences in patient characteristics between study arms may facilitate the optimal use of all available evidence leading to unbiased results compared to unadjusted analyses

The importance of adjusting for potential confounders in Bayesian hierarchical models synthesising evidence from randomised and non-randomised studies: an application comparing treatments for abdominal aortic aneurysms

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Informing health care decision making may necessitate the synthesis of evidence from different study designs (e.g., randomised controlled trials, non-randomised/observational studies). Methods for synthesising different types of studies have been proposed, but their routine use requires development of approaches to adjust for potential biases, especially among non-randomised studies. The objective of this study was to extend a published Bayesian hierarchical model to adjust for bias due to confounding in synthesising evidence from studies with different designs.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In this new methodological approach, study estimates were adjusted for potential confounders using differences in patient characteristics (e.g., age) between study arms. The new model was applied to synthesise evidence from randomised and non-randomised studies from a published review comparing treatments for abdominal aortic aneurysms. We compared the results of the Bayesian hierarchical model adjusted for differences in study arms with: 1) unadjusted results, 2) results adjusted using aggregate study values and 3) two methods for downweighting the potentially biased non-randomised studies. Sensitivity of the results to alternative prior distributions and the inclusion of additional covariates were also assessed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In the base case analysis, the estimated odds ratio was 0.32 (0.13,0.76) for the randomised studies alone and 0.57 (0.41,0.82) for the non-randomised studies alone. The unadjusted result for the two types combined was 0.49 (0.21,0.98). Adjusted for differences between study arms, the estimated odds ratio was 0.37 (0.17,0.77), representing a shift towards the estimate for the randomised studies alone. Adjustment for aggregate values resulted in an estimate of 0.60 (0.28,1.20). The two methods used for downweighting gave odd ratios of 0.43 (0.18,0.89) and 0.35 (0.16,0.76), respectively. Point estimates were robust but credible intervals were wider when using vaguer priors.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Covariate adjustment using aggregate study values does not account for covariate imbalances between treatment arms and downweighting may not eliminate bias. Adjustment using differences in patient characteristics between arms provides a systematic way of adjusting for bias due to confounding. Within the context of a Bayesian hierarchical model, such an approach could facilitate the use of all available evidence to inform health policy decisions.</p

Polymorphisms in the vascular endothelial growth factor gene and breast cancer in the Cancer Prevention Study II cohort

INTRODUCTION: Vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) plays a central role in promoting angiogenesis and is over-expressed in breast cancer. At least four polymorphisms in the VEGF gene have been associated with changes in VEGF expression levels: -2578C/A, -1154G/A and -634G/C are all located in the promoter region; and +936C/T is located in the 3'-untranslated region. METHOD: We examined the association between these four VEGF polymorphisms and risk for breast cancer among postmenopausal women in CPS-II (Cancer Prevention Study II) Nutrition Cohort. This cohort was established in 1992 and participants were invited to provide a blood sample between 1998 and 2001. Included in this analysis were 501 postmenopausal women who provided a blood sample and were diagnosed with breast cancer between 1992 and 2001 (cases). Control individuals were 504 cancer-free postmenopausal women matched to the cases with respect to age, race/ethnicity, and date of blood collection (controls). RESULTS: We found no association between any of the polymorphisms examined and overall breast cancer risk. However, associations were markedly different in separate analyses of invasive cancer (n = 380) and in situ cancer (n = 107). The -2578C and -1154G alleles, which are both hypothesized to increase expression of VEGF, were associated with increased risk for invasive breast cancer (odds ratio [OR] 1.46, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.00–2.14 for -2578 CC versus AA; OR 1.64, 95% CI 1.02–2.64 for -1154 GG versus AA) but they were not associated with risk for in situ cancer. The +936C allele, which is also hypothesized to increase VEGF expression, was not clearly associated with invasive breast cancer (OR 1.21, 95% CI 0.88–1.67 for +936 CC versus TT/CT), but it was associated with reduced risk for in situ cancer (OR 0.59, 95% CI 0.37–0.93 for CC versus TT/CT). The -634 C/G polymorphism was not associated with either invasive or in situ cancer. CONCLUSION: Our findings provide limited support for the hypothesis that the -2578C and -1154G VEGF alleles are associated with increased risk for invasive but not in situ breast cancer in postmenopausal women

Neonatal CD8 T-cell Hierarchy Is Distinct from Adults and Is Influenced by Intrinsic T cell Properties in Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infected Mice

Following respiratory syncytial virus infection of adult CB6F1 hybrid mice, a predictable CD8+ T cell epitope hierarchy is established with a strongly dominant response to a Kd-restricted peptide (SYIGSINNI) from the M2 protein. The response to KdM282-90 is ∼5-fold higher than the response to a subdominant epitope from the M protein (NAITNAKII, DbM187-195). After infection of neonatal mice, a distinctly different epitope hierarchy emerges with codominant responses to KdM282-90 and DbM187-195. Adoptive transfer of naïve CD8+ T cells from adults into congenic neonates prior to infection indicates that intrinsic CD8+ T cell factors contribute to age-related differences in hierarchy. Epitope-specific precursor frequency differs between adults and neonates and influences, but does not predict the hierarchy following infection. Additionally, dominance of KdM282-90 –specific cells does not correlate with TdT activity. Epitope-specific Vβ repertoire usage is more restricted and functional avidity is lower in neonatal mice. The neonatal pattern of codominance changes after infection at 10 days of age, and rapidly shifts to the adult pattern of extreme KdM282- 90 -dominance. Thus, the functional properties of T cells are selectively modified by developmental factors in an epitope-specific and age-dependent manner

Attribution of physical complaints to the air disaster in Amsterdam by exposed rescue workers: an epidemiological study using historic cohorts

BACKGROUND: In 1992 a cargo aircraft crashed into a residential area of Amsterdam. A troublesome aftermath followed, with rumors on potential toxic exposures and health consequences. Health concerns remained even though no excess morbidity was predicted in retrospective risk evaluations. This study aimed to assess to what extent the rescue workers attribute long-term physical complaints to this disaster, including its aftermath, and to examine associations between such attribution and types of exposure and background variables. METHODS: Historic cohort study that collected questionnaire data on occupational disaster exposure, attribution of physical complaints, and background variables on average 8.5 years post-disaster. For the present study the workers who were exposed to the disaster were selected from the historic cohort, i.e. the professional firefighters (n = 334), police officers (n = 834), and accident and wreckage investigators (n = 241) who performed disaster-related tasks. RESULTS: Across the three occupational groups, a consistent percentage (ranging from 43% to 49%) of exposed workers with long-term physical complaints attributed these to the disaster, including its aftermath. Those with more physical complaints attributed these to a stronger degree. Multivariate logistic regression analyses showed that attribution was significantly more often reported by firefighters who rescued people, and by police officers who reported the identification and recovery of or search for victims and human remains, clean-up, or security and surveillance of the disaster area; who witnessed the immediate disaster scene; who had a close one affected by the disaster; and who perceived the disaster as the worst thing that ever happened to them. Age, sex and educational level were not significantly associated with attribution. CONCLUSION: This study provides further cross-sectional evidence for the role of causal attribution in post-disaster subjective physical health problems. After on average 8.5 years, almost a third (32%) of all the exposed workers, and almost half (45%) of the exposed workers with physical complaints, attributed these complaints to the disaster, including its aftermath. The similarity of the results across the occupational groups suggests a general rather than an occupation-specific attribution process. Longitudinal studies are needed to determine whether causal disaster attribution leads to persistence of post-disaster complaints and health care utilization

Apolipoprotein E Genotype and Cardiovascular Diseases in the Elderly

The apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype is a genetic risk factor for dementia, Alzheimer’s disease, and cardiovascular disease (CVD). It includes three alleles (e2, e3, e4) that are located on chromosome 19q3.2. The e3 allele is the most common and is more common in people of Northern European ancestry and less common in those of Asian ancestry. Those with at least one e4 allele are at increased risk for CVD outcomes. It is well established that the presence of an e4 allele is linked to higher low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, even at young ages. Even though most CVD occurs in older people, there are few studies of the effects of APOE on CVD in older people. This review addresses recent research on the links between APOE, CVD, and vascular mechanisms by which APOE may affect CVD in the elderly

A mathematical model of the metabolic and perfusion effects on cortical spreading depression

Cortical spreading depression (CSD) is a slow-moving ionic and metabolic disturbance that propagates in cortical brain tissue. In addition to massive cellular depolarization, CSD also involves significant changes in perfusion and metabolism -- aspects of CSD that had not been modeled and are important to traumatic brain injury, subarachnoid hemorrhage, stroke, and migraine. In this study, we develop a mathematical model for CSD where we focus on modeling the features essential to understanding the implications of neurovascular coupling during CSD. In our model, the sodium-potassium--ATPase, mainly responsible for ionic homeostasis and active during CSD, operates at a rate that is dependent on the supply of oxygen. The supply of oxygen is determined by modeling blood flow through a lumped vascular tree with an effective local vessel radius that is controlled by the extracellular potassium concentration. We show that during CSD, the metabolic demands of the cortex exceed the physiological limits placed on oxygen delivery, regardless of vascular constriction or dilation. However, vasoconstriction and vasodilation play important roles in the propagation of CSD and its recovery. Our model replicates the qualitative and quantitative behavior of CSD -- vasoconstriction, oxygen depletion, extracellular potassium elevation, prolonged depolarization -- found in experimental studies. We predict faster, longer duration CSD in vivo than in vitro due to the contribution of the vasculature. Our results also help explain some of the variability of CSD between species and even within the same animal. These results have clinical and translational implications, as they allow for more precise in vitro, in vivo, and in silico exploration of a phenomenon broadly relevant to neurological disease.Comment: 17 pages including 9 figures, accepted by PLoS On

The Ischemic Stroke Genetics Study (ISGS) Protocol

BACKGROUND: The molecular basis for the genetic risk of ischemic stroke is likely to be multigenic and influenced by environmental factors. Several small case-control studies have suggested associations between ischemic stroke and polymorphisms of genes that code for coagulation cascade proteins and platelet receptors. Our aim is to investigate potential associations between hemostatic gene polymorphisms and ischemic stroke, with particular emphasis on detailed characterization of the phenotype. METHODS/DESIGN: The Ischemic Stroke Genetic Study is a prospective, multicenter genetic association study in adults with recent first-ever ischemic stroke confirmed with computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging. Patients are evaluated at academic medical centers in the United States and compared with sex- and age-matched controls. Stroke subtypes are determined by central blinded adjudication using standardized, validated mechanistic and syndromic classification systems. The panel of genes to be tested for polymorphisms includes β-fibrinogen and platelet glycoprotein Ia, Iba, and IIb/IIIa. Immortalized cell lines are created to allow for time- and cost-efficient testing of additional candidate genes in the future. DISCUSSION: The study is designed to minimize survival bias and to allow for exploring associations between specific polymorphisms and individual subtypes of ischemic stroke. The data set will also permit the study of genetic determinants of stroke outcome. Having cell lines will permit testing of future candidate risk factor genes

Assessment of motor functioning in the preschool period

The assessment of motor functioning in young children has become increasingly important in recent years with the acknowledgement that motor impairment is linked with cognitive, language, social and emotional difficulties. However, there is no one gold standard assessment tool to investigate motor ability in children. The aim of the current paper was to discuss the issues related to the assessment of motor ability in young pre-school children and to provide guidelines on the best approach for motor assessment. The paper discusses the maturational changes in brain development at the preschool level in relation to motor ability. Other issues include sex differences in motor ability at this young age, and evidence for this in relation to sociological versus biological influences. From the previous literature it is unclear what needs to be assessed in relation to motor functioning. Should the focus be underlying motor processes or movement skill assessment? Several key assessment tools are discussed that produce a general measure of motor performance followed by a description of tools that assess specific skills, such as fine and gross motor, ball and graphomotor skills. The paper concludes with recommendations on the best approach in assessing motor function in pre-school children