The intertemporal approach to the current account: Evidence from Indonesia and Malaysia

The study presents the empirical analysis of the current account positions of two ASEAN countries (namely, Indonesia and Malaysia) during the past four decades. We address the issue of external solvency by measuring the deviation of actual from the optimal path of the current account balance using Sachs’s (1982) intertemporal model. Of these two countries, our results show that the model performed noticeable better for Malaysia. We found that the Malaysia’s actual path moves closely to the estimated consumption-smooth currents accounts, with small (insignificant) deviations between them. Unlike Malaysia, we found weaker support of the model for the case of Indonesia. Indonesia’s external imbalances reveal the following: (i) the deficits of the mid 1980s and 1990s prior to 1997 financial crisis appear to be unsustainable; (ii) the evidence appears to be broadly consistent with the intertemporal model and hence suggests that capital is mobile; (iii) the large surpluses observed during the post-1997 period significantly deviate from the optimal path, implying that savings have reached a level that is beyond what would be required to support full consumption smoothing;and (iv) there is excessive volatility in international capital movements for consumption-smoothing purpose

Purchasing power parity in Central and Eastern European countries

This paper investigates the validity of the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis for 13 Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC) in transition. The results based on the seemingly unrelated regression ADF (SURADF) method reveal that the PPP relationship holds in 7(6) out of the 13 countries when the real exchange rate is based on US dollar (euro). Our empirical findings appear to support a long-run PPP in some of the transition countries that appears insensitive to the base country.

DEVELOPMENT OF MAHÂRAH AL-ISTIMÂ’ TEST INSTRUMENT FOR ELECTRONIC BASED ARABIC STUDENT USING THE KAHOOT! APPLICATION

This study aimed to develop the feasibility of the Mahârah al-Istimâ’ test instrument for electronic-based Arabic students using the Kahoot! application at UIN Sunan Kalijaga Yogyakarta. The method used in this research is the research and development of  Borg and Gall model through analysis, design, and testing. Eligibility is based on the expert validator test and the final operation field test. The results of the study can be concluded that: 1) Preparation of the Test Instrument refers to the 5 objectives or indicators of Mahmud Kamil an-Naqah into 50 questions in product design using the Kahoot! application, 2) From the results of the expert validator it is known that the results of the material quality are obtained by an average 5.37 and the media quality of the application is obtained by an average of 4.75 (very feasible), 3) After being obtained from the main field test to 20 students there are 6 questions or 12% that are not feasible because they are invalid and have not discrimination index, then the author revise and test the revision results to 70 students with 100% valid results and are suitable for use

ROLE AND MARKET MECHANISM IN ISLAM

The market is a mechanism for the natural exchange of goods and services. Market prices are formed by various factors which then shape the demand for and supply of goods and services. Consumer demand is influenced by many factors, such as price, consumer income, tastes, expectations and level of maslahah. While the producer's supply is also influenced by many factors, such as mashlahah, profit, and price. The interaction between supply and demand that will form the balance point can be changed from the demand or supply side, either as a result of structured deviations or unstructured deviations. Perfect competition market will be able to produce fair prices for sellers and buyers. Therefore, if the market mechanism is disrupted, price justice will not be achieved. Islam places the market in an important position in the economy. And also Islam is very concerned with the concept of fair prices and perfect market mechanisms. So the role of the government is very important to further guarantee the perfect market mechanism activities such as adopting price intervention policies that remain grounded in justice. &nbsp

PKM Penguatan Literasi dan Numerasi melalui Program Kampus Mengajar Angkatan 4 di SD Kalibuntu V Probolinggo

Pengabdian di SD Kalibuntu V ini bertujuan untuk memberikan pendampingan kepada siswa untuk meningkatkan kemampuan membaca, menulis dan menghitung dengan menggunakan strategi dan model pembelajaran yang menyenangkan, sehingga siswa tidak bosan untuk mengikuti kegiatan belajar mengajar, meski dengan materi yang sama yakni belajar membaca, menulis, dan menghitung. Sementara untuk guru bertujuan bertukar pengalaman dalam bidang mengajar dan memberikan pembelajaran yang menarik untuk meretas kebosanan siswa dalam belajar membaca, menulis dan menghitung. Metode dalam pelaksanaan kegiatan PkM ini antara lain : 1). Melakukan koordinasi dengan dinas pendidikan kabupaten probolinggo, tentang pelaksanaan kegiatan pengabdian 2). Pelaksanaan rapat koordinasi dengan kepala sekolah dan guru pada SD Kalibuntu V 3). Merumuskan fokus kegiatan pengabdian bersama dengan kepala sekolah 4). Pelaksanaan kegiatan 5). Evaluasi kegiatan 6). Penyusunan laporan dan publikasi. Hasil dari kegiatan PkM antara lain: 1) Siswa pada SD Negeri Kalibuntu V, sudah bisa membaca, menulis dan menghitung setelah dilakukan pendampingan selama tiga bulan. 2) Motivasi siswa untuk belajar semakin meningkat, hal ini bisa dilihat dari semakin aktif siswa dalam mengumpulkan tugas, mengunjungi ruang baca dan tidak jarang mereka meminta pekerjaan rumah kepada guru. 3) Kolaborasi antara guru dan wali murid semakin terpuruk, sehingga pengawasan belajar siswa semakin terarah dan saling mendukung. 4) Guru semakin kreatif dalam memberikan pembelajaran dengan menggunakan media pembelajaran, meskipun hanya menggunakan seadany

Structural breaks and the twin deficits hypothesis: Evidence from East Asian countries

In this paper, we examine the relevance of the twin deficits hypothesis (TDH) for selected East Asian countries. Empirical results reveal that the admission of regime shifts substantially influences the conclusion that TDH exists in four out of the seven countries that we have investigated. It seems that TDH are less likely to be evident in countries with highly developed financial systems (Singapore and Japan).Current account, Budget deficit, Twin deficits hypothesis, Regime shift, Asian countries

The effect of exchange rate on bilateral trade balance: new evidence from Malaysia and Thailand

This paper attempts to identify the major economic factors that influence the bilateral trade balances of Malaysia and Thailand with the US and Japan. To this end, an unrestricted VAR model was estimated using quarterly frequency data from 1980: I to 1996: IV. The Johansen results indicate a stable long-run relation between trade and three macro variables: exchange rate, domestic income and foreign income. The main findings of this paper are: (i) the real effective exchange rate is an important variable in the trade balance equation and devaluation improves the trade balances of both economies in the long-run; (ii) the other important variables that determine trade balance include domestic and foreign incomes; (iii) the results indicate no J-curve effect and causal run from exchange rate to trade balance, (iv) the real effects of devaluation are distributed over a period of eight to nine quarters

Measuring Capital Mobility in the Asia Pacific Rim

This study revisits the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle by investigating the saving-investment nexus through the unit root test, cointegration procedure, unrestricted VAR causality, and dynamic OLS (DOLS). Ten Asia Pacific nations of different level of economic development and financial openness were being examined, using data from 1971-1999. Overall, the long run capital mobility is more apparent for four newly industrialised economies while capital flows in ASEAN countries seem to be more restricted (especially Indonesia and Thailand). As for the US and Japan, their long run saving retention coefficients are in the moderate range (0.56 and 0.45). In brief, our findings indicate that the heftiness of Feldstein-Horioka criterion in measuring capital mobility is more subjected to econometric specifications rather than country size alone.Feldstein-Horioka puzzle; capital mobility; Asia pacific region; unrestricted VAR causality; dynamic OLS

The Predictability of ASEAN-5 Exchange Rates

In an attempt to determine the predictability of ASEAN exchange rates, five currencies including Malaysian ringgit, Thailand baht, Singapore dollar, Indonesian rupiah and the Philippines peso, denominated in US dollar as well as Japanese yen, were modeled using advanced time series analysis. Results suggested that Singapore exchange rate could be better predicted when denominated in US dollar, most probably because the East Asian Financial Crisis did not affect them both. On the other hand, other Asean exchange rates were better predicted when denominated in Japanese yen, as they had closer economic ties with Japan. However, while Japan had undergone serious recession after the crisis, it did not experience dramatic political instability as experienced by Indonesia, hence Indonesian rupiah remained unpredictable by yen. These results show that although advanced time series analysis dealt with economic fundamentals implicitly; it still could be a powerful tool for exchange rates modeling and forecasting, especially in the medium to long term.Exchange rate; ASEAN-5, predictibility, ARIMA

Landasan Aksiologis Pemikiran Bung Hatta Tentang Demokrasi

Hatta has a specific concept of democracy in which there are some differences from liberal democracy. One of them is based on its axiological ground. Therefore, the purposes of this research are to analyze Hatta's thought on democracy and its axiological ground. The primary data is taken from Hatta's works,they are : Demokrasi Kita (1978), Pengertian Pancasila (1981), and Kumpulan Pidato , 3 volumes (1985).The results of this research are : Hatta's concept of democracy for Indonesia is not similar at all with the Western concept of liberal democracy. Hatta developed the Indonesian democracy as a specific concept which its principles base on the original values within Indonesian society. His concept embraces political, economical and social aspects. From the axiological perspective, Hatta's concept of democracy is based on the fundamental values, such as truth, justice, goodness, honesty, beauty, and holiness. Therefore, it can be said that the fundamental values in Hatta's concept of democracy embrace ethic, aesthetic, and religious values