Comparison of techniques for handling missing covariate data within prognostic modelling studies: a simulation study

Background: There is no consensus on the most appropriate approach to handle missing covariate data within prognostic modelling studies. Therefore a simulation study was performed to assess the effects of different missing data techniques on the performance of a prognostic model. Methods: Datasets were generated to resemble the skewed distributions seen in a motivating breast cancer example. Multivariate missing data were imposed on four covariates using four different mechanisms; missing completely at random (MCAR), missing at random (MAR), missing not at random (MNAR) and a combination of all three mechanisms. Five amounts of incomplete cases from 5% to 75% were considered. Complete case analysis (CC), single imputation (SI) and five multiple imputation (MI) techniques available within the R statistical software were investigated: a) data augmentation (DA) approach assuming a multivariate normal distribution, b) DA assuming a general location model, c) regression switching imputation, d) regression switching with predictive mean matching (MICE-PMM) and e) flexible additive imputation models. A Cox proportional hazards model was fitted and appropriate estimates for the regression coefficients and model performance measures were obtained. Results: Performing a CC analysis produced unbiased regression estimates, but inflated standard errors, which affected the significance of the covariates in the model with 25% or more missingness. Using SI, underestimated the variability; resulting in poor coverage even with 10% missingness. Of the MI approaches, applying MICE-PMM produced, in general, the least biased estimates and better coverage for the incomplete covariates and better model performance for all mechanisms. However, this MI approach still produced biased regression coefficient estimates for the incomplete skewed continuous covariates when 50% or more cases had missing data imposed with a MCAR, MAR or combined mechanism. When the missingness depended on the incomplete covariates, i.e. MNAR, estimates were biased with more than 10% incomplete cases for all MI approaches. Conclusion: The results from this simulation study suggest that performing MICE-PMM may be the preferred MI approach provided that less than 50% of the cases have missing data and the missing data are not MNAR

Comparison of imputation methods for handling missing covariate data when fitting a Cox proportional hazards model: a resampling study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The appropriate handling of missing covariate data in prognostic modelling studies is yet to be conclusively determined. A resampling study was performed to investigate the effects of different missing data methods on the performance of a prognostic model.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Observed data for 1000 cases were sampled with replacement from a large complete dataset of 7507 patients to obtain 500 replications. Five levels of missingness (ranging from 5% to 75%) were imposed on three covariates using a missing at random (MAR) mechanism. Five missing data methods were applied; a) complete case analysis (CC) b) single imputation using regression switching with predictive mean matching (SI), c) multiple imputation using regression switching imputation, d) multiple imputation using regression switching with predictive mean matching (MICE-PMM) and e) multiple imputation using flexible additive imputation models. A Cox proportional hazards model was fitted to each dataset and estimates for the regression coefficients and model performance measures obtained.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>CC produced biased regression coefficient estimates and inflated standard errors (SEs) with 25% or more missingness. The underestimated SE after SI resulted in poor coverage with 25% or more missingness. Of the MI approaches investigated, MI using MICE-PMM produced the least biased estimates and better model performance measures. However, this MI approach still produced biased regression coefficient estimates with 75% missingness.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Very few differences were seen between the results from all missing data approaches with 5% missingness. However, performing MI using MICE-PMM may be the preferred missing data approach for handling between 10% and 50% MAR missingness.</p

Molecular and cellular mechanisms underlying the evolution of form and function in the amniote jaw.

The amniote jaw complex is a remarkable amalgamation of derivatives from distinct embryonic cell lineages. During development, the cells in these lineages experience concerted movements, migrations, and signaling interactions that take them from their initial origins to their final destinations and imbue their derivatives with aspects of form including their axial orientation, anatomical identity, size, and shape. Perturbations along the way can produce defects and disease, but also generate the variation necessary for jaw evolution and adaptation. We focus on molecular and cellular mechanisms that regulate form in the amniote jaw complex, and that enable structural and functional integration. Special emphasis is placed on the role of cranial neural crest mesenchyme (NCM) during the species-specific patterning of bone, cartilage, tendon, muscle, and other jaw tissues. We also address the effects of biomechanical forces during jaw development and discuss ways in which certain molecular and cellular responses add adaptive and evolutionary plasticity to jaw morphology. Overall, we highlight how variation in molecular and cellular programs can promote the phenomenal diversity and functional morphology achieved during amniote jaw evolution or lead to the range of jaw defects and disease that affect the human condition

Regulation of Oxidative Stress Response by CosR, an Essential Response Regulator in Campylobacter jejuni

CosR (Campylobacter oxidative stress regulator; Cj0355c) is an OmpR-type response regulator essential for the viability of Campylobacter jejuni, a leading foodborne pathogen causing human gastroenteritis worldwide. Despite importance, the function of CosR remains completely unknown mainly because of cell death caused by its knockout mutation. To overcome this technical limitation, in this study, antisense technology was used to investigate the regulatory function of CosR by modulating the level of CosR expression. Two-dimensional gel electrophoresis (2DGE) was performed to identify the CosR regulon either by suppressing CosR expression with antisense peptide nucleic acid (PNA) or by overexpressing CosR in C. jejuni. According to the results of 2DGE, CosR regulated 32 proteins involved in various cellular processes. Notably, CosR negatively regulated a few key proteins of the oxidative stress response of C. jejuni, such as SodB, Dps, Rrc and LuxS, whereas CosR positively controlled AhpC. Electrophoretic mobility shift assay showed that CosR directly bound to the promoter region of the oxidative stress genes. DNase I footprinting assays identified 21-bp CosR binding sequences in the sodB and ahpC promoters, suggesting CosR specifically recognizes and binds to the regulated genes. Interestingly, the level of CosR protein was significantly reduced by paraquat (a superoxide generator) but not by hydrogen peroxide. Consistent with the overall negative regulation of oxidative stress defense proteins by CosR, the CosR knockdown by antisense rendered C. jejuni more resistant to oxidative stress compared to the wild type. Overall, this study reveals the important role played by the essential response regulator CosR in the oxidative stress defense of C. jejuni

MrkH, a Novel c-di-GMP-Dependent Transcriptional Activator, Controls Klebsiella pneumoniae Biofilm Formation by Regulating Type 3 Fimbriae Expression

Klebsiella pneumoniae causes significant morbidity and mortality worldwide, particularly amongst hospitalized individuals. The principle mechanism for pathogenesis in hospital environments involves the formation of biofilms, primarily on implanted medical devices. In this study, we constructed a transposon mutant library in a clinical isolate, K. pneumoniae AJ218, to identify the genes and pathways implicated in biofilm formation. Three mutants severely defective in biofilm formation contained insertions within the mrkABCDF genes encoding the main structural subunit and assembly machinery for type 3 fimbriae. Two other mutants carried insertions within the yfiN and mrkJ genes, which encode GGDEF domain- and EAL domain-containing c-di-GMP turnover enzymes, respectively. The remaining two isolates contained insertions that inactivated the mrkH and mrkI genes, which encode for novel proteins with a c-di-GMP-binding PilZ domain and a LuxR-type transcriptional regulator, respectively. Biochemical and functional assays indicated that the effects of these factors on biofilm formation accompany concomitant changes in type 3 fimbriae expression. We mapped the transcriptional start site of mrkA, demonstrated that MrkH directly activates transcription of the mrkA promoter and showed that MrkH binds strongly to the mrkA regulatory region only in the presence of c-di-GMP. Furthermore, a point mutation in the putative c-di-GMP-binding domain of MrkH completely abolished its function as a transcriptional activator. In vivo analysis of the yfiN and mrkJ genes strongly indicated their c-di-GMP-specific function as diguanylate cyclase and phosphodiesterase, respectively. In addition, in vitro assays showed that purified MrkJ protein has strong c-di-GMP phosphodiesterase activity. These results demonstrate for the first time that c-di-GMP can function as an effector to stimulate the activity of a transcriptional activator, and explain how type 3 fimbriae expression is coordinated with other gene expression programs in K. pneumoniae to promote biofilm formation to implanted medical devices

Biology and ecology of the world’s largest invertebrate, the colossal squid (Mesonychoteuthis hamiltoni): a short review

The colossal squid Mesonychoteuthis hamiltoni (Robson 1925) is the largest (heaviest) living invertebrate and although it is preyed upon by many top predators, its basic biology and ecology remain one of the ocean’s great mysteries. The present study aims to review the current biological knowledge on this squid. It is considered to be endemic in the Southern Ocean (SO) with a circumpolar distribution spreading from the Antarctic continent up to the Sub-Antarctic Front. Small juveniles (<40 mm mantle length) are mainly found from the surface to 500 m, and the late juvenile stages are assumed to undergo ontogenetic descent to depths reaching 2000 m. Thus, this giant spends most of its life in the meso- and bathypelagic realms, where it can reach a total length of 6 m. The maximum weight recorded so far was 495 kg. M. hamiltoni is presently reported from the diets of 17 different predator species, comprising penguins and other seabirds, fishes and marine mammals, and may feed on various prey types, including myctophids, Patagonian toothfish, sleeper sharks and other squid. Stable isotopic analysis places the colossal squid as one of the top predators in the SO. It is assumed that this squid is not capable of high-speed predator–prey interactions, but it is rather an ambush predator. Its eyes, the largest on the planet, seem to have evolved to detect very large predators (e.g., sperm whales) rather than to detect prey at long distances. The study of this unique invertebrate giant constitutes a valuable source of insight into the biophysical principles behind body-size evolution

Ageing and Financial Stability

Abstract: Although the precise details are subject to major uncertainty, it seems likely that the process of population ageing will involve major shifts in financing, which may give rise to financial turbulence and systemic risk. The locus and scale of these effects will also depend on the predominant approach to retirement income provision. It is argued that the financial-stability risks arising from continuing with unsustainable pay-as-you-go systems would be more threatening than those arising from funding. Fiscal crises can have incalculable consequences for private financial markets, while pension funding involves more an adaptation by regulatory authorities to a more securitised and institutionalised financial system, that is likely to develop in any case. Concerning policy, for social security, the key issue is reform, so that the fiscal difficulties and their consequences for financial stability foreshadowed above do not arise. For institutional investors involved in funding, policy issues arising include the need for prudent person asset regulation, absence of guarantees generating moral hazard and international diversification of institutional portfolios, so that they are less dependent on the performance of the domestic economy than would otherwise be the case. Banks would not be immune to the side-effects of the various patterns ageing will generate, and an awareness of such risks as well a