Epidemics on contact networks: a general stochastic approach

Dynamics on networks is considered from the perspective of Markov stochastic processes. We partially describe the state of the system through network motifs and infer any missing data using the available information. This versatile approach is especially well adapted for modelling spreading processes and/or population dynamics. In particular, the generality of our systematic framework and the fact that its assumptions are explicitly stated suggests that it could be used as a common ground for comparing existing epidemics models too complex for direct comparison, such as agent-based computer simulations. We provide many examples for the special cases of susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) and susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) dynamics (e.g., epidemics propagation) and we observe multiple situations where accurate results may be obtained at low computational cost. Our perspective reveals a subtle balance between the complex requirements of a realistic model and its basic assumptions.Comment: Main document: 16 pages, 7 figures. Electronic Supplementary Material (included): 6 pages, 1 tabl

Associations between insulin and glucose concentrations and anthropometric measures of fat mass in Australian adolescents

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>One of the most serious, yet common co-morbidities of obesity is insulin resistance, which if untreated may progress to type 2 diabetes. This paper describes the insulin and glucose concentration distributions, the prevalence of elevated insulin, the associations between insulin and body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) and fat mass index in a representative sample of Australian adolescents.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Cross-sectional population-based study of adolescent boys and girls (N = 496, mean age 15.3 years) attending schools in metropolitan Sydney, Australia. Fasting venous blood collected and analysed for insulin and glucose concentrations. Height, weight, waist circumference measured, BMI and waist-to-height ratio calculated. Pubertal status self-reported.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Glucose concentrations were normally distributed and were not associated with adiposity. Insulin concentrations were distributed logarithmically, were higher among girls than boys overall and within the same ranges of BMI and waist circumference, but were lower among girls than boys within the same ranges of fat mass adjusted for height. The prevalence of elevated insulin concentration (defined as > 100 pmol/L) was 15.9% and 17.1% among boys and girls, respectively. Correlations between insulin concentration and BMI, waist circumference, WHtR and fat mass adjusted for height were 0.53, 0.49, 0.51 and 0.55, among boys, respectively, and 0.35, 0.40, 0.42 and 0.34, among girls, respectively.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Elevated insulin is highly correlated with adiposity in adolescents. BMI and WHtR are simple measures that can be used to identify young people who should be screened for insulin resistance and other co-morbidities.</p

Epidemiology of severe pediatric adenovirus lower respiratory tract infections in Manitoba, Canada, 1991-2005

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Most pediatric adenovirus respiratory infections are mild and indistinguishable from other viral causes. However, in a few children, the disease can be severe and result in substantial morbidity. We describe the epidemiologic, clinical, radiologic features and outcome of adenovirus lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI) in Aboriginal and Non-Aboriginal children in Manitoba, Canada during the years 1991 and 2005.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This was a retrospective study of 193 children who presented to the department of pediatrics at Winnipeg Children's Hospital, Manitoba, Canada with LRTI and had a positive respiratory culture for adenovirus. Patients' demographics, clinical and radiologic features and outcomes were collected. Adenovirus serotype distributions and temporal associations were described. Approximate incidence comparisons (detection rates) of adenovirus LRTI among Aboriginal and Non-Aboriginal children were estimated with 95% confidence intervals.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Adenovirus infections occurred throughout the year with clusters in the fall and winter. Serotypes 1 to 3 were the predominant isolates (two thirds of the cases). The infection was more frequent among Canadian Aboriginals, as illustrated in 2004, where its incidence in children 0-4 years old was 5.6 fold higher in Aboriginals (13.51 vs. 2.39 per 10,000, <it>p </it>< 0.000). There were no significant differences in length of hospitalization and use of ventilator assistance between the two groups (<it>p </it>> 0.185 and <it>p </it>> 0.624, respectively) nor across serotypes (<it>p </it>> 0.10 and <it>p </it>> 0.05, respectively). The disease primarily affected infants (median age, 9.5 months). Most children presented with bronchiolitis or pneumonia, with multi-lobar consolidations on the chest x-ray. Chronic (residual) changes were documented in 16 patients, with eight patients showing bronchiectasis on the chest computerized tomography scan.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Adenovirus infection is associated with significant respiratory morbidities, especially in young infants. The infection appears to be more frequent in Aboriginal children. These results justify a careful follow-up for children with adenovirus LRTI.</p

Local-Scale Patterns of Genetic Variability, Outcrossing, and Spatial Structure in Natural Stands of Arabidopsis thaliana

As Arabidopsis thaliana is increasingly employed in evolutionary and ecological studies, it is essential to understand patterns of natural genetic variation and the forces that shape them. Previous work focusing mostly on global and regional scales has demonstrated the importance of historical events such as long-distance migration and colonization. Far less is known about the role of contemporary factors or environmental heterogeneity in generating diversity patterns at local scales. We sampled 1,005 individuals from 77 closely spaced stands in diverse settings around Tübingen, Germany. A set of 436 SNP markers was used to characterize genome-wide patterns of relatedness and recombination. Neighboring genotypes often shared mosaic blocks of alternating marker identity and divergence. We detected recent outcrossing as well as stretches of residual heterozygosity in largely homozygous recombinants. As has been observed for several other selfing species, there was considerable heterogeneity among sites in diversity and outcrossing, with rural stands exhibiting greater diversity and heterozygosity than urban stands. Fine-scale spatial structure was evident as well. Within stands, spatial structure correlated negatively with observed heterozygosity, suggesting that the high homozygosity of natural A. thaliana may be partially attributable to nearest-neighbor mating of related individuals. The large number of markers and extensive local sampling employed here afforded unusual power to characterize local genetic patterns. Contemporary processes such as ongoing outcrossing play an important role in determining distribution of genetic diversity at this scale. Local “outcrossing hotspots” appear to reshuffle genetic information at surprising rates, while other stands contribute comparatively little. Our findings have important implications for sampling and interpreting diversity among A. thaliana accessions

The cost-effectiveness of the RSI QuickScan intervention programme for computer workers: Results of an economic evaluation alongside a randomised controlled trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The costs of arm, shoulder and neck symptoms are high. In order to decrease these costs employers implement interventions aimed at reducing these symptoms. One frequently used intervention is the RSI QuickScan intervention programme. It establishes a risk profile of the target population and subsequently advises interventions following a decision tree based on that risk profile. The purpose of this study was to perform an economic evaluation, from both the societal and companies' perspective, of the RSI QuickScan intervention programme for computer workers. In this study, effectiveness was defined at three levels: exposure to risk factors, prevalence of arm, shoulder and neck symptoms, and days of sick leave.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The economic evaluation was conducted alongside a randomised controlled trial (RCT). Participating computer workers from 7 companies (N = 638) were assigned to either the intervention group (N = 320) or the usual care group (N = 318) by means of cluster randomisation (N = 50). The intervention consisted of a tailor-made programme, based on a previously established risk profile. At baseline, 6 and 12 month follow-up, the participants completed the RSI QuickScan questionnaire. Analyses to estimate the effect of the intervention were done according to the intention-to-treat principle. To compare costs between groups, confidence intervals for cost differences were computed by bias-corrected and accelerated bootstrapping.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The mean intervention costs, paid by the employer, were 59 euro per participant in the intervention and 28 euro in the usual care group. Mean total health care and non-health care costs per participant were 108 euro in both groups. As to the cost-effectiveness, improvement in received information on healthy computer use as well as in their work posture and movement was observed at higher costs. With regard to the other risk factors, symptoms and sick leave, only small and non-significant effects were found.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In this study, the RSI QuickScan intervention programme did not prove to be cost-effective from the both the societal and companies' perspective and, therefore, this study does not provide a financial reason for implementing this intervention. However, with a relatively small investment, the programme did increase the number of workers who received information on healthy computer use and improved their work posture and movement.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>Trial registration number: NTR1117</p

Cell salvage and donor blood transfusion during cesarean section: A pragmatic, multicentre randomised controlled trial (SALVO)

BACKGROUND: Excessive haemorrhage at cesarean section requires donor (allogeneic) blood transfusion. Cell salvage may reduce this requirement. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a pragmatic randomised controlled trial (at 26 obstetric units; participants recruited from 4 June 2013 to 17 April 2016) of routine cell salvage use (intervention) versus current standard of care without routine salvage use (control) in cesarean section among women at risk of haemorrhage. Randomisation was stratified, using random permuted blocks of variable sizes. In an intention-to-treat analysis, we used multivariable models, adjusting for stratification variables and prognostic factors identified a priori, to compare rates of donor blood transfusion (primary outcome) and fetomaternal haemorrhage ≥2 ml in RhD-negative women with RhD-positive babies (a secondary outcome) between groups. Among 3,028 women randomised (2,990 analysed), 95.6% of 1,498 assigned to intervention had cell salvage deployed (50.8% had salvaged blood returned; mean 259.9 ml) versus 3.9% of 1,492 assigned to control. Donor blood transfusion rate was 3.5% in the control group versus 2.5% in the intervention group (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0.65, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.42 to 1.01, p = 0.056; adjusted risk difference -1.03, 95% CI -2.13 to 0.06). In a planned subgroup analysis, the transfusion rate was 4.6% in women assigned to control versus 3.0% in the intervention group among emergency cesareans (adjusted OR 0.58, 95% CI 0.34 to 0.99), whereas it was 2.2% versus 1.8% among elective cesareans (adjusted OR 0.83, 95% CI 0.38 to 1.83) (interaction p = 0.46). No case of amniotic fluid embolism was observed. The rate of fetomaternal haemorrhage was higher with the intervention (10.5% in the control group versus 25.6% in the intervention group, adjusted OR 5.63, 95% CI 1.43 to 22.14, p = 0.013). We are unable to comment on long-term antibody sensitisation effects. CONCLUSIONS: The overall reduction observed in donor blood transfusion associated with the routine use of cell salvage during cesarean section was not statistically significant. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This trial was prospectively registered on ISRCTN as trial number 66118656 and can be viewed on http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN66118656

Percentiles of fasting serum insulin, glucose, HbA1c and HOMA-IR in pre-pubertal normal weight European children from the IDEFICS cohort

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study is to present age-and sex-specific reference values of insulin, glucose, glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c) and the homeostasis model assessment to quantify insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) for pre-pubertal children. METHODS: The reference population consists of 7074 normal weight 3- to 10.9-year-old pre-pubertal children from eight European countries who participated in at least one wave of the IDEFICS ('identification and prevention of dietary-and lifestyle-induced health effects in children and infants') surveys (2007-2010) and for whom standardised laboratory measurements were obtained. Percentile curves of insulin (measured by an electrochemiluminescence immunoassay), glucose, HbA1c and HOMA-IR were calculated as a function of age stratified by sex using the general additive model for location scale and shape (GAMLSS) method. RESULTS: Levels of insulin, fasting glucose and HOMA-IR continuously show an increasing trend with age, whereas HbA1c shows an upward trend only beyond the age of 8 years. Insulin and HOMA-IR values are higher in girls of all age groups, whereas glucose values are slightly higher in boys. Median serum levels of insulin range from 17.4 and 13.2 pmol l(-1) in 3-< 3.5-year-old girls and boys, respectively, to 53.5 and 43.0 pmol l(-1) in 10.5-< 11-year-old girls and boys. Median values of glucose are 4.3 and 4.5 mmol l(-1) in the youngest age group and 49.3 and 50.6 mmol l(-1) in the oldest girls and boys. For HOMA-IR, median values range from 0.5 and 0.4 in 3-< 3.5-year-old girls and boys to 1.7 and 1.4 in 10.5-< 11-year-old girls and boys, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides the first standardised reference values for an international European children's population and provides the, up to now, largest data set of healthy pre-pubertal children to model reference percentiles for markers of insulin resistance. Our cohort shows higher values of Hb1Ac as compared with a single Swedish study while our percentiles for the other glucose metabolic markers are in good accordance with previous studies

Regulation of Septin Dynamics by the Saccharomyces cerevisiae Lysine Acetyltransferase NuA4

In the budding yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae, the lysine acetyltransferase NuA4 has been linked to a host of cellular processes through the acetylation of histone and non-histone targets. To discover proteins regulated by NuA4-dependent acetylation, we performed genome-wide synthetic dosage lethal screens to identify genes whose overexpression is toxic to non-essential NuA4 deletion mutants. The resulting genetic network identified a novel link between NuA4 and septin proteins, a group of highly conserved GTP-binding proteins that function in cytokinesis. We show that acetyltransferase-deficient NuA4 mutants have defects in septin collar formation resulting in the development of elongated buds through the Swe1-dependent morphogenesis checkpoint. We have discovered multiple sites of acetylation on four of the five yeast mitotic septins, Cdc3, Cdc10, Cdc12 and Shs1, and determined that NuA4 can acetylate three of the four in vitro. In vivo we find that acetylation levels of both Shs1 and Cdc10 are reduced in a catalytically inactive esa1 mutant. Finally, we determine that cells expressing a Shs1 protein with decreased acetylation in vivo have defects in septin localization that are similar to those observed in NuA4 mutants. These findings provide the first evidence that yeast septin proteins are acetylated and that NuA4 impacts septin dynamics

Economic Evaluations of Occupational Health Interventions from a Company’s Perspective: A Systematic Review of Methods to Estimate the Cost of Health-Related Productivity Loss

Objectives: To investigate the methods used to estimate the indirect costs of health-related productivity in economic evaluations from a company’s perspective. Methods: The primary literature search was conducted in Medline and Embase. Supplemental searches were conducted in the Cochrane NHS Economic Evaluation Database, the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health database, the Ryerson International Labour, Occupational Safety and Health Index database, scans of reference lists and researcher’s own literature database. Article selection was conducted independently by two researchers based on title, keywords, and abstract, and if needed, full text. Differences were resolved by a consensus procedure. Articles were selected based on seven criteria addressing study population, type of intervention, comparative intervention, outcome, costs, language and perspective, respectively. Characteristics of the measurement and valuation of health-related productivity were extracted and analyzed descriptively. Results: A total of 34 studies were included. Costs of health-related productivity were estimated using (a combination of) data related to sick leave, compensated sick leave, light or modified duty or work presenteeism. Data were collected from different sources (e.g. administrative databases, worker self-report, supervisors) and by different methods (e.g. questionnaires, interviews). Valuation varied in terms of reported time units, composition and source of the corresponding price weights, and whether additional elements, such as replacement costs, were included. Conclusions: Methods for measuring and valuing health-related productivity vary widely, hindering comparability of results and decision-making. We provide suggestions for improvement