Are we drawing the right conclusions from randomised placebo-controlled trials? A post-hoc analysis of data from a randomised controlled trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Assumptions underlying placebo controlled trials include that the placebo effect impacts on all study arms equally, and that treatment effects are additional to the placebo effect. However, these assumptions have recently been challenged, and different mechanisms may potentially be operating in the placebo and treatment arms. The objective of the current study was to explore the nature of placebo versus pharmacological effects by comparing predictors of the placebo response with predictors of the treatment response in a randomised, placebo-controlled trial of a phytotherapeutic combination for the treatment of menopausal symptoms. A substantial placebo response was observed but no significant difference in efficacy between the two arms.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A <it>post hoc </it>analysis was conducted on data from 93 participants who completed this previously published study. Variables at baseline were investigated as potential predictors of the response on any of the endpoints of flushing, overall menopausal symptoms and depression. Focused tests were conducted using hierarchical linear regression analyses. Based on these findings, analyses were conducted for both groups separately. These findings are discussed in relation to existing literature on placebo effects.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Distinct differences in predictors were observed between the placebo and active groups. A significant difference was found for study entry anxiety, and Greene Climacteric Scale (GCS) scores, on all three endpoints. Attitude to menopause was found to differ significantly between the two groups for GCS scores. Examination of the individual arms found anxiety at study entry to predict placebo response on all three outcome measures individually. In contrast, <it>low </it>anxiety was significantly associated with improvement in the active treatment group. None of the variables found to predict the placebo response was relevant to the treatment arm.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study was a <it>post hoc </it>analysis of predictors of the placebo versus treatment response. Whilst this study does not explore neurobiological mechanisms, these observations are consistent with the hypotheses that 'drug' effects and placebo effects are not necessarily additive, and that mutually exclusive mechanisms may be operating in the two arms. The need for more research in the area of mechanisms and mediators of placebo versus active responses is supported.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p>International Clinical Trials Registry ISRCTN98972974.</p

Common Variants at 10 Genomic Loci Influence Hemoglobin A(1C) Levels via Glycemic and Nonglycemic Pathways

OBJECTIVE Glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), used to monitor and diagnose diabetes, is influenced by average glycemia over a 2- to 3-month period. Genetic factors affecting expression, turnover, and abnormal glycation of hemoglobin could also be associated with increased levels of HbA1c. We aimed to identify such genetic factors and investigate the extent to which they influence diabetes classification based on HbA1c levels. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We studied associations with HbA1c in up to 46,368 nondiabetic adults of European descent from 23 genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and 8 cohorts with de novo genotyped single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). We combined studies using inverse-variance meta-analysis and tested mediation by glycemia using conditional analyses. We estimated the global effect of HbA1c loci using a multilocus risk score, and used net reclassification to estimate genetic effects on diabetes screening. RESULTS Ten loci reached genome-wide significant association with HbA1c, including six new loci near FN3K (lead SNP/P value, rs1046896/P = 1.6 × 10−26), HFE (rs1800562/P = 2.6 × 10−20), TMPRSS6 (rs855791/P = 2.7 × 10−14), ANK1 (rs4737009/P = 6.1 × 10−12), SPTA1 (rs2779116/P = 2.8 × 10−9) and ATP11A/TUBGCP3 (rs7998202/P = 5.2 × 10−9), and four known HbA1c loci: HK1 (rs16926246/P = 3.1 × 10−54), MTNR1B (rs1387153/P = 4.0 × 10−11), GCK (rs1799884/P = 1.5 × 10−20) and G6PC2/ABCB11 (rs552976/P = 8.2 × 10−18). We show that associations with HbA1c are partly a function of hyperglycemia associated with 3 of the 10 loci (GCK, G6PC2 and MTNR1B). The seven nonglycemic loci accounted for a 0.19 (% HbA1c) difference between the extreme 10% tails of the risk score, and would reclassify ∼2% of a general white population screened for diabetes with HbA1c. CONCLUSIONS GWAS identified 10 genetic loci reproducibly associated with HbA1c. Six are novel and seven map to loci where rarer variants cause hereditary anemias and iron storage disorders. Common variants at these loci likely influence HbA1c levels via erythrocyte biology, and confer a small but detectable reclassification of diabetes diagnosis by HbA1c

The conservation value of human-modified landscapes for the world's primates

Land-use change pushes biodiversity into human-modified landscapes, where native ecosystems are surrounded by anthropic land covers (ALCs). Yet, the ability of species to use these emerging covers remains poorly understood. We quantified the use of ALCs by primates worldwide, and analyzed species' attributes that predict such use. Most species use secondary forests and tree plantations, while only few use human settlements. ALCs are used for foraging by at least 86 species with an important conservation outcome: those that tolerate heavily modified ALCs are 26% more likely to have stable or increasing populations than the global average for all primates. There is no phylogenetic signal in ALCs use. Compared to all primates on Earth, species using ALCs are less often threatened with extinction, but more often diurnal, medium or large-bodied, not strictly arboreal, and habitat generalists. These findings provide valuable quantitative information for improving management practices for primate conservation worldwide

Persistence of health inequalities in childhood injury in the UK: a population-based cohort study of children under 5

BACKGROUND: Injury is a significant cause of childhood death and can result in substantial long-term disability. Injuries are more common in children from socio-economically deprived families, contributing to health inequalities between the most and least affluent. However, little is known about how the relationship between injuries and deprivation has changed over time in the UK. METHODS: We conducted a cohort study of all children under 5 registered in one of 495 UK general practices that contributed medical data to The Health Improvement Network database between 1990–2009. We estimated the incidence of fractures, burns and poisonings by age, sex, socio-economic group and calendar period and adjusted incidence rate ratios (IRR) comparing the least and most socio-economically deprived areas over time. Estimates of the UK annual burden of injuries and the excess burden attributable to deprivation were derived from incidence rates. RESULTS: The cohort of 979,383 children experienced 20,804 fractures, 15,880 burns and 10,155 poisonings, equating to an incidence of 75.8/10,000 person-years (95% confidence interval 74.8–76.9) for fractures, 57.9 (57.0–58.9) for burns and 37.3 (35.6–38.0) for poisonings. Incidence rates decreased over time for burns and poisonings and increased for fractures (p<0.001 test for trend for each injury). They were significantly higher in more deprived households (IRR test for trend p<0.001 for each injury type) and these gradients persisted over time. We estimate that 865 fractures, 3,763 burns and 3,043 poisonings could be prevented each year in the UK if incidence rates could be reduced to those of the most affluent areas. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of burns and poisonings declined between 1990 and 2009 but increased for fractures. Despite these changes, strong socio-economic inequalities persisted resulting in an estimated 9,000 additional medically-attended injuries per year in under-5s

Influence of Different Application of Lubricants on Wear and Pre-existing Rolling Contact Fatigue Cracks of Rail Materials

Rolling contact fatigue (RCF) of rail can be a significant problem affecting safety and maintenance. Rail materials have been optimized to reduce it, but not enough is known about how friction management products applied to the rail affect crack growth. This study presents experimental results carried out to explore the influence of different lubricants and application orders on wear and pre-existing RCF cracks in rail materials. The results indicate that the types or properties of lubricants have a vital role in the wear rate and fatigue crack growth characteristics of rail materials after conditioning with 5000 dry cycles to initiate cracks. Using a different application order of two lubricants has a significant influence on the crack growth angles in the rail rollers

Comparison of standard fusion with a "topping off" system in lumbar spine surgery: a protocol for a randomized controlled trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Fusion of lumbar spine segments is a well-established therapy for many pathologies. The procedure changes the biomechanics of the spine. Initial clinical benefits may be outweighed by ensuing damage to the adjacent segments. Various surgical devices and techniques have been developed to prevent this deterioration. "Topping off" systems combine rigid fusion with a flexible pedicle screw system to prevent adjacent segment disease (ASD). To date, there is no convincing evidence that these devices provide any patient benefits.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>The study is designed as a randomized, therapy-controlled trial in a clinical care setting at a university hospital. Patients presenting to the outpatient clinic with degenerative disc disease or spondylolisthesis will be assessed against study inclusion and exclusion criteria. After randomization, the control group will undergo conventional fusion. The intervention group will undergo fusion with a supplemental flexible pedicle screw system to protect the adjacent segment ("topping off").</p> <p>Follow-up examination will take place immediately after treatment during hospital stay, after 6 weeks, and then after 6, 12, 24 and 36 months. Subsequently, ongoing assessments will be performed annually.</p> <p>Outcome measurements will include quality of life and pain assessments using questionnaires (SF-36™, ODI, COMI). In addition, clinical and radiologic ASD, work-related disability, and duration of work disability will be assessed. Inpatient and 6-month mortality, surgery-related data (e.g., intraoperative complications, blood loss, length of incision, surgical duration), postoperative complications, adverse events, and serious adverse events will be documented and monitored throughout the study. Cost-effectiveness analysis will also be provided.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>New hybrid systems might improve the outcome of lumbar spine fusion. To date, there is no convincing published data on effectiveness or safety of these topping off systems. High quality data is required to evaluate the benefits and drawbacks of topping off devices. If only because these devices are quite expensive compared to conventional fusion implants, nonessential use should be avoided. In fact, these high costs necessitate efforts by health care providers to evaluate the effects of these implants. Randomized clinical trials are highly recommended to evaluate the benefits or harm to the patient.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p>ClinicalTrials.gov: <a href="http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01224379">NCT01224379</a></p

Search for a Technicolor omega_T Particle in Events with a Photon and a b-quark Jet at CDF

If the Technicolor omega_T particle exists, a likely decay mode is omega_T -> gamma pi_T, followed by pi_T -> bb-bar, yielding the signature gamma bb-bar. We have searched 85 pb^-1 of data collected by the CDF experiment at the Fermilab Tevatron for events with a photon and two jets, where one of the jets must contain a secondary vertex implying the presence of a b quark. We find no excess of events above standard model expectations. We express the result of an exclusion region in the M_omega_T - M_pi_T mass plane.Comment: 14 pages, 2 figures. Available from the CDF server (PS with figs): http://www-cdf.fnal.gov/physics/pub98/cdf4674_omega_t_prl_4.ps FERMILAB-PUB-98/321-

The Timing of the Cognitive Cycle

We propose that human cognition consists of cascading cycles of recurring brain events. Each cognitive cycle senses the current situation, interprets it with reference to ongoing goals, and then selects an internal or external action in response. While most aspects of the cognitive cycle are unconscious, each cycle also yields a momentary “ignition” of conscious broadcasting. Neuroscientists have independently proposed ideas similar to the cognitive cycle, the fundamental hypothesis of the LIDA model of cognition. High-level cognition, such as deliberation, planning, etc., is typically enabled by multiple cognitive cycles. In this paper we describe a timing model LIDA's cognitive cycle. Based on empirical and simulation data we propose that an initial phase of perception (stimulus recognition) occurs 80–100 ms from stimulus onset under optimal conditions. It is followed by a conscious episode (broadcast) 200–280 ms after stimulus onset, and an action selection phase 60–110 ms from the start of the conscious phase. One cognitive cycle would therefore take 260–390 ms. The LIDA timing model is consistent with brain evidence indicating a fundamental role for a theta-gamma wave, spreading forward from sensory cortices to rostral corticothalamic regions. This posteriofrontal theta-gamma wave may be experienced as a conscious perceptual event starting at 200–280 ms post stimulus. The action selection component of the cycle is proposed to involve frontal, striatal and cerebellar regions. Thus the cycle is inherently recurrent, as the anatomy of the thalamocortical system suggests. The LIDA model fits a large body of cognitive and neuroscientific evidence. Finally, we describe two LIDA-based software agents: the LIDA Reaction Time agent that simulates human performance in a simple reaction time task, and the LIDA Allport agent which models phenomenal simultaneity within timeframes comparable to human subjects. While there are many models of reaction time performance, these results fall naturally out of a biologically and computationally plausible cognitive architecture

Measurement of the B0 anti-B0 oscillation frequency using l- D*+ pairs and lepton flavor tags

The oscillation frequency Delta-md of B0 anti-B0 mixing is measured using the partially reconstructed semileptonic decay anti-B0 -> l- nubar D*+ X. The data sample was collected with the CDF detector at the Fermilab Tevatron collider during 1992 - 1995 by triggering on the existence of two lepton candidates in an event, and corresponds to about 110 pb-1 of pbar p collisions at sqrt(s) = 1.8 TeV. We estimate the proper decay time of the anti-B0 meson from the measured decay length and reconstructed momentum of the l- D*+ system. The charge of the lepton in the final state identifies the flavor of the anti-B0 meson at its decay. The second lepton in the event is used to infer the flavor of the anti-B0 meson at production. We measure the oscillation frequency to be Delta-md = 0.516 +/- 0.099 +0.029 -0.035 ps-1, where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second is systematic.Comment: 30 pages, 7 figures. Submitted to Physical Review