How many people will need palliative care in 2040? Past trends, future projections and implications for services.

BACKGROUND: Current estimates suggest that approximately 75% of people approaching the end-of-life may benefit from palliative care. The growing numbers of older people and increasing prevalence of chronic illness in many countries mean that more people may benefit from palliative care in the future, but this has not been quantified. The present study aims to estimate future population palliative care need in two high-income countries. METHODS: We used mortality statistics for England and Wales from 2006 to 2014. Building on previous diagnosis-based approaches, we calculated age- and sex-specific proportions of deaths from defined chronic progressive illnesses to estimate the prevalence of palliative care need in the population. We calculated annual change over the 9-year period. Using explicit assumptions about change in disease prevalence over time, and official mortality forecasts, we modelled palliative care need up to 2040. We also undertook separate projections for dementia, cancer and organ failure. RESULTS: By 2040, annual deaths in England and Wales are projected to rise by 25.4% (from 501,424 in 2014 to 628,659). If age- and sex-specific proportions with palliative care needs remain the same as in 2014, the number of people requiring palliative care will grow by 25.0% (from 375,398 to 469,305 people/year). However, if the upward trend observed from 2006 to 2014 continues, the increase will be of 42.4% (161,842 more people/year, total 537,240). In addition, disease-specific projections show that dementia (increase from 59,199 to 219,409 deaths/year by 2040) and cancer (increase from 143,638 to 208,636 deaths by 2040) will be the main drivers of increased need. CONCLUSIONS: If recent mortality trends continue, 160,000 more people in England and Wales will need palliative care by 2040. Healthcare systems must now start to adapt to the age-related growth in deaths from chronic illness, by focusing on integration and boosting of palliative care across health and social care disciplines. Countries with similar demographic and disease changes will likely experience comparable rises in need

Evidence of increased islet cell proliferation in patients with recent-onset type 1 diabetes.

addresses: Institute of Biomedical and Clinical Science, Peninsula College of Medicine and Dentistry (University of Exeter), Tamar Science Park, Derriford, Plymouth, UK.The final publication is available at link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00125-010-1817-6In adults, the rate of beta cell replication is normally very low, but recent evidence suggests that it may increase during insulitis. We therefore studied tissue from donors with recent-onset type 1 diabetes to establish whether islet cell proliferation is increased during the disease process

Awareness of health risks related to body art practices among youth in Naples, Italy: a descriptive convenience sample study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Body art practices have emerged as common activities among youth, yet few studies have investigated awareness in different age groups of possible health complications associated with piercing and tattooing.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We investigated perceptions of and knowledge about health risks. To highlight differences among age groups, we gathered data from students at high schools and universities in the province of Naples.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of 9,322 adolescents, 31.3% were pierced and 11.3% were tattooed. Of 3,610 undergraduates, 33% were pierced and 24.5% were tattooed (p < 0.05). A higher number of females were pierced in both samples, but there were no gender differences among tattooed students. Among high school students, 79.4% knew about infectious risks and 46% about non-infectious risks; the respective numbers among university students were 87.2% and 59.1%. Only 3.5% of students in high school and 15% of university undergraduates acknowledged the risk of viral disease transmission; 2% and 3% knew about allergic risks. Among adolescents and young adults, 6.9% and 15.3%, respectively, provided signed informed consent; the former were less knowledgeable about health risks (24.7% vs. 57.1%) (p < 0.05). Seventy-three percent of the high school students and 33.5% of the university students had body art done at unauthorized facilities. Approximately 7% of both samples reported complications from their purchased body art.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Results indicate a need for adequate information on health risks associated with body art among students in Naples, mainly among high school students. Therefore, adolescents should be targeted for public health education programs.</p

The role of the carotenoids, lutein and zeaxanthin, in protecting against age-related macular degeneration: A review based on controversial evidence

PURPOSE: A review of the role of the carotenoids, lutein and zeaxanthin, and their function in altering the pathogenesis of age-related macular degeneration (AMD). METHODS: Medline and Embase search. RESULTS: Recent evidence introduces the possibility that lutein and zeaxanthin, carotenoids found in a variety of fruits and vegetables may protect against the common eye disease of macular degeneration. This potential and the lack to slow the progression of macular degeneration, has fueled high public interest in the health benefits of these carotenoids and prompted their inclusion in various supplements. The body of evidence supporting a role in this disease ranges from basic studies in experimental animals to various other clinical and epidemiological studies. Whilst some epidemiological studies suggest a beneficial role for carotenoids in the prevention of AMD, others are found to be unrelated to it. Results of some clinical studies indicate that the risk for AMD is reduced when levels of the carotenoids are elevated in the serum or diet, but this correlation is not observed in other studies. Published data concerning the toxicity of the carotenoids or the optimum dosage of these supplements is lacking. CONCLUSION: An intake of dietary supplied nutrients rich in the carotenoids, lutein and zeaxanthin, appears to be beneficial in protecting retinal tissues, but this is not proven. Until scientifically sound knowledge is available we recommend for patients judged to be at risk for AMD to: alter their diet to more dark green leafy vegetables, wear UV protective lenses and a hat when outdoors. Future investigations on the role of nutrition, light exposure, genetics, and combinations of photodynamic therapy with intravitreal steroid (triamcinolone-acetonide) injections hold potential for future treatment possibilities

Prevalence and changes in chronic diseases among South Korean farmers: 1998 to 2005

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Epidemiologic studies have suggested a unique pattern of disease among farmers in Western countries, but limited information is available about the magnitude of disease prevalence and their changes over time in Asian farmers. The aim of this study was to compare the prevalence and changes in chronic diseases among farmers with those of other occupational groups in South Korea.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using data from three consecutive cross-sectional national surveys: the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1998 (n = 39,060), 2001 (n = 37,769), and 2005 (n = 34,145), we calculated age and gender-standardized prevalence of chronic diseases by the direct method and compared the prevalence changes from 1998 to 2005.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Female farmers had significantly higher chronic disease prevalence than other occupational groups in all three surveys. Arthritis was the most prevalent chronic disease among farmers for both men and women. Compared with other populations, farmers demonstrated a higher prevalence of arthritis and intervertebral disc disorders. Farmers showed higher prevalence changes for intervertebral disc disorders than other occupational workers.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our findings support that South Korean farmers have a distinct pattern of diseases prevalence from other populations. More detailed studies investigating the risk of musculoskeletal diseases and intensive intervention efforts to reduce the prevalence these diseases, particularly among female farmers, are required.</p

Feasibility of Modified Surviving Sepsis Campaign Guidelines in a Resource-Restricted Setting Based on a Cohort Study of Severe S. Aureus Sepsis

[This corrects the article on p. e29858 in vol. 7.]

Coastal greening of grey infrastructure: an update on the state-of-the-art

\ua9 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited: All rights reserved.In the marine environment, greening of grey infrastructure (GGI) is a rapidly growing field that attempts to encourage native marine life to colonize marine artificial structures to enhance biodiversity, thereby promoting ecosystem functioning and hence service provision. By designing multifunctional sea defences, breakwaters, port complexes and off-shore renewable energy installations, these structures can yield myriad environmental benefits, in particular, addressing UN SDG 14: Life below water. Whilst GGI has shown great promise and there is a growing evidence base, there remain many criticisms and knowledge gaps, and some feel that there is scope for GGI to be abused by developers to facilitate harmful development. Given the surge of research in this field in recent years, it is timely to review the literature to provide an update update on the state-of-the-art of the field in relation to the many criticisms and identify remaining knowledge gaps. Despite the rapid and significant advances made in this field, there is currently a lack of science and practice outside of academic sectors in the developed world, and there is a collective need for schemes that encourage intersectoral and transsectoral research, knowledge exchange, and capacity building to optimize GGI in the pursuit of contributing to sustainable development