A missing dimension in measures of vaccination impacts

Immunological protection, acquired from either natural infection or vaccination, varies among hosts, reflecting underlying biological variation and affecting population-level protection. Owing to the nature of resistance mechanisms, distributions of susceptibility and protection entangle with pathogen dose in a way that can be decoupled by adequately representing the dose dimension. Any infectious processes must depend in some fashion on dose, and empirical evidence exists for an effect of exposure dose on the probability of transmission to mumps-vaccinated hosts [1], the case-fatality ratio of measles [2], and the probability of infection and, given infection, of symptoms in cholera [3]. Extreme distributions of vaccine protection have been termed leaky (partially protects all hosts) and all-or-nothing (totally protects a proportion of hosts) [4]. These distributions can be distinguished in vaccine field trials from the time dependence of infections [5]. Frailty mixing models have also been proposed to estimate the distribution of protection from time to event data [6], [7], although the results are not comparable across regions unless there is explicit control for baseline transmission [8]. Distributions of host susceptibility and acquired protection can be estimated from dose-response data generated under controlled experimental conditions [9]–[11] and natural settings [12], [13]. These distributions can guide research on mechanisms of protection, as well as enable model validity across the entire range of transmission intensities. We argue for a shift to a dose-dimension paradigm in infectious disease science and community health

Laboratory testing and phylogenetic analysis during a mumps outbreak in Ontario, Canada

Abstract Background In September 2009, a mumps outbreak originated in New York and spread to Northeastern USA and Canada. This study compares the performance of different diagnostic testing methods used in Ontario and describes molecular characteristics of the outbreak strain. Methods Between September 2009 and February 2010, specimens from suspect cases were submitted to Public Health Ontario Laboratory for mumps serology, culture and/or real-time reverse-transcriptase PCR (rRT-PCR) testing. rRT-PCR-positive specimens underwent genotyping at Canada’s National Microbiology Laboratory. Whole genome sequencing was performed on four outbreak and three sporadic viral culture isolates. Results Six hundred ninety-eight patients had IgM serology testing, of which 255 (37%) had culture and rRT-PCR. Among those, 35/698 (5%) were IgM positive, 39/255 (15%) culture positive and 47/255 (18%) rRT-PCR-positive. Buccal swabs had the highest rRT-PCR positivity (21%). The outbreak isolates were identical to that in the New York outbreak occurring at the same time. Nucleotide and amino acid identity with the Jeryl Lynn vaccine strain ranged from 85.0-94.5% and 82.4-99.4%, depending on the gene and coding sequences. Homology of the HN protein, the main immunogenic mumps virus protein, was found to be 94.5 and 95.3%, when compared to Jeryl Lynn vaccine major and minor components, respectively. Conclusions Despite higher sensitivity than serology, rRT-PCR testing is underutilized. Further work is needed to better understand the suboptimal match of the HN gene between the outbreak strain and the Jeryl Lynn vaccine strain