Advancing participatory backcasting for climate change adaptation planning using 10 cases from 3 continents

In the face of climate change, a major challenge is to inform and guide long-term climate change adaptation planning under deep uncertainty, while aiming at transformative change. Normative futures studies approaches, such as participatory backcasting, visioning and transition management, are increasingly applied, but their potential for climate change adaptation research and practice remains undervalued. This paper aims to advance the potential of backcasting in climate adaptation, by comparing various climate change adaptation studies that have used backcasting or visioning approaches. A framework has been further developed and applied to evaluate 10 cases in Africa, Europe and North America, using four dimensions: (i) inputs and settings; (ii) process and methods (iii) results, and (iv), impact. Our evaluation provides key insights into the use and further development of backcasting for climate adaptation. Key elements to add are advanced system modeling, robust elements, pathway switching and hybrid pathways, enhancing participation of marginal groups, and contributing to impact by facilitating the utilization of results and knowledge in practice and decision making

Continuous Interaction with a Virtual Human

Attentive Speaking and Active Listening require that a Virtual Human be capable of simultaneous perception/interpretation and production of communicative behavior. A Virtual Human should be able to signal its attitude and attention while it is listening to its interaction partner, and be able to attend to its interaction partner while it is speaking – and modify its communicative behavior on-the-fly based on what it perceives from its partner. This report presents the results of a four week summer project that was part of eNTERFACE’10. The project resulted in progress on several aspects of continuous interaction such as scheduling and interrupting multimodal behavior, automatic classification of listener responses, generation of response eliciting behavior, and models for appropriate reactions to listener responses. A pilot user study was conducted with ten participants. In addition, the project yielded a number of deliverables that are released for public access

Unlocking community capabilities for improving maternal and newborn health: participatory action research to improve birth preparedness, health facility access, and newborn care in rural Uganda

Background: Community capacities and resources must be harnessed to complement supply side initiatives addressing high maternal and neonatal mortality rates in Uganda. This paper reflects on gains, challenges and lessons learnt from working with communities to improve maternal and newborn health in rural Uganda. Methods: A participatory action research project was supported from 2012 to 2015 in three eastern districts. This project involved working with households, saving groups, sub county and district leaders, transporters and village health teams in diagnosing causes of maternal and neonatal mortality and morbidity, developing action plans to address these issues, taking action and learning from action in a cyclical manner. This paper draws from project experience and documentation, as well as thematic analysis of 20 interviews with community and district stakeholders and 12 focus group discussions with women who had recently delivered and men whose wives had recently delivered. Results: Women and men reported increased awareness about birth preparedness, improved newborn care practices and more male involvement in maternal and newborn health. However, additional direct communication strategies were required to reach more men beyond the minority who attended community dialogues and home visits. Saving groups and other saving modalities were strengthened, with money saved used to meet transport costs, purchase other items needed for birth and other routine household needs. However saving groups required significant support to improve income generation, management and trust among members. Linkages between savings groups and transport providers improved women’s access to health facilities at reduced cost. Although village health teams were a key resource for providing information, their efforts were constrained by low levels of education, inadequate financial compensation and transportation challenges. Ensuring that the village health teams and savings groups functioned required regular supervision, review meetings and payment for supervisors to visit. Conclusions: This participatory program, which focused on building the capacity of community stakeholders, was able to improve local awareness of maternal and newborn health practices and instigate local action to improve access to healthcare. Collaborative problem solving among diverse stakeholders, continuous support and a participatory approach that allowed flexibility were essential project characteristics that enabled overcoming of challenges faced

Selenium status is positively associated with bone mineral density in healthy aging European men

Objective It is still a matter of debate if subtle changes in selenium (Se) status affect thyroid function tests (TFTs) and bone mineral density (BMD). This is particularly relevant for the elderly, whose nutritional status is more vulnerable. Design and Methods We investigated Se status in a cohort of 387 healthy elderly men (median age 77 yrs; inter quartile range 75-80 yrs) in relation to TFTs and BMD. Se status was determined by measuring both plasma selenoprotein P (SePP) and Se. Results The overall Se status in our population was low normal with only 0.5% (2/387) of subjects meeting the criteria for Se deficiency. SePP and Se levels were not associated with thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH), free thyroxine (FT4), thyroxine (T4), triiodothyronine (T3) or reverse triiodothyronine (rT3) levels. The T3/T4 and T3/rT3 ratios, reflecting peripheral metabolism of thyroid hormone, were not associated with Se status either. SePP and Se were positively associated with total BMD and femoral trochanter BMD. Se, but not SePP, was positively associated with femoral neck and ward's BMD. Multivariate linear analyses showed that these associations remain statistically significant in a model including TSH, FT4, body mass index, physical performance score, age, smoking, diabetes mellitus and number of medication use. Conclusion Our study demonstrates that Se status, within the normal European marginally supplied range, is positively associated with BMD in healthy aging men, independent of thyroid function. Thyroid function tests appear unaffected by Se status in this population

Using the SaTScan method to detect local malaria clusters for guiding malaria control programmes

Mpumalanga Province, South Africa is a low malaria transmission area that is subject to malaria epidemics. SaTScan methodology was used by the malaria control programme to detect local malaria clusters to assist disease control planning. The third season for case cluster identification overlapped with the first season of implementing an outbreak identification and response system in the area. SaTScan™ software using the Kulldorf method of retrospective space-time permutation and the Bernoulli purely spatial model was used to identify malaria clusters using definitively confirmed individual cases in seven towns over three malaria seasons. Following passive case reporting at health facilities during the 2002 to 2005 seasons, active case detection was carried out in the communities, this assisted with determining the probable source of infection. The distribution and statistical significance of the clusters were explored by means of Monte Carlo replication of data sets under the null hypothesis with replications greater than 999 to ensure adequate power for defining clusters. SaTScan detected five space-clusters and two space-time clusters during the study period. There was strong concordance between recognized local clustering of cases and outbreak declaration in specific towns. Both Albertsnek and Thambokulu reported malaria outbreaks in the same season as space-time clusters. This synergy may allow mutual validation of the two systems in confirming outbreaks demanding additional resources and cluster identification at local level to better target resources. Exploring the clustering of cases assisted with the planning of public health activities, including mobilizing health workers and resources. Where appropriate additional indoor residual spraying, focal larviciding and health promotion activities, were all also carried out

Careers in ecstasy use: do ecstasy users cease of their own accord? Implications for intervention development

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Ecstasy (MDMA, 3, 4-methylenodioxymethamphetamine) use is widespread in the Netherlands, with a lifetime prevalence of 4.3%, and two-thirds of dance party visitors being ecstasy users. However, research into Dutch ecstasy use patterns is lacking. In addition, recent studies suggest that ecstasy users cease their use automatically, which implies that interventions would do better to better focus on the promotion of harm reduction strategies than on inducing cessation. The current study addresses this process of ecstasy cessation.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>32 participants from the Dutch dance scene were interviewed, and the results were systematically analysed using NVivo.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Most ecstasy users had started to use out of curiosity. During use, users applied a host of harm reduction strategies, albeit inconsistently and sometimes incorrectly. Most users appeared to cease ecstasy use automatically because of loss of interest or changing life circumstances (e.g. a new job or relationship).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>It appears that cessation of ecstasy use is largely determined by environmental variables and not by health concerns. This supports the idea that health promotion resources are better spent in trying to promote consistent and correct application of harm reduction practices than in trying to induce cessation.</p

Rapid semi-automated quantitative multiplex tandem PCR (MT-PCR) assays for the differential diagnosis of influenza-like illness

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Influenza A, including avian influenza, is a major public health threat in developed and developing countries. Rapid and accurate detection is a key component of strategies to contain spread of infection, and the efficient diagnosis of influenza-like-illness is essential to protect health infrastructure in the event of a major influenza outbreak.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We developed a multiplexed PCR (MT-PCR) assay for the simultaneous diagnosis of respiratory viruses causing influenza-like illness, including the specific recognition of influenza A haemagglutinin subtypes H1, H3, and H5. We tested several hundred clinical specimens in two diagnostic reference laboratories and compared the results with standard techniques.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The sensitivity and specificity of these assays was higher than individual assays based on direct antigen detection and standard PCR against a range of control templates and in several hundred clinical specimens. The MT-PCR assays provided differential diagnoses as well as potentially useful quantitation of virus in clinical samples.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>MT-PCR is a potentially powerful tool for the differential diagnosis of influenza-like illness in the clinical diagnostic laboratory.</p

Fecal Calprotectin Excretion in Preterm Infants during the Neonatal Period

Fecal calprotectin has been proposed as a non-invasive marker of intestinal inflammation in inflammatory bowel disease in adults and children. Fecal calprotectin levels have been reported to be much higher in both healthy full-term and preterm infants than in children and adults.To determine the time course of fecal calprotectin (f-calprotectin) excretion in preterm infants from birth until hospital discharge and to identify factors influencing f-calprotectin levels in the first weeks of life, including bacterial establishment in the gut.F-calprotectin was determined using an ELISA assay in 147 samples obtained prospectively from 47 preterm infants (gestational age, and birth-weight interquartiles 27–29 weeks, and 880–1320 g, respectively) at birth, and at 2-week intervals until hospital discharge. (p = 0.047).During the first weeks of life, the high f-calprotectin values observed in preterm infants could be linked to the gut bacterial establishment