Calibration and uncertainty issues of a hydrological model (SWAT) applied to West Africa

International audienceDistributed hydrological models like SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) are often highly over-parameterized, making parameter specification and parameter estimation inevitable steps in model calibration. Manual calibration is almost infeasible due to the complexity of large-scale models with many objectives. Therefore we used a multi-site semi-automated inverse modelling routine (SUFI-2) for calibration and uncertainty analysis. Nevertheless, the question of when a model is sufficiently calibrated remains open, and requires a project dependent definition. Due to the non-uniqueness of effective parameter sets, parameter calibration and prediction uncertainty of a model are intimately related. We address some calibration and uncertainty issues using SWAT to model a four million km2 area in West Africa, including mainly the basins of the river Niger, Volta and Senegal. This model is a case study in a larger project with the goal of quantifying the amount of global country-based available freshwater. Annual and monthly simulations with the "calibrated" model for West Africa show promising results in respect of the freshwater quantification but also point out the importance of evaluating the conceptual model uncertainty as well as the parameter uncertainty

Virtual water highway: water use efficiency in global food trade

International audienceAmid an increasing water scarcity in many parts of the world, virtual water trade as both a policy instrument and practical means to balance the regional, national and global water budget has received much attention in recent years. Built upon the knowledge of virtual water accounting in the literature, this study examines the efficiency of the resource use embodied in the global virtual water trade from the perspectives of exporting and importing countries. Different characteristics between "green" and "blue" virtual water corresponding to rainfed and irrigated agriculture are elaborated. The investigation reveals that the virtual water flows primarily from countries of high water productivity to countries of low water productivity, generating a global saving of water resources. Meanwhile, the domination of green virtual water in the total virtual water trade constitutes low opportunity costs and environmental impacts as opposed to blue virtual water. The results suggest efficiency gains in the global food trade in terms of water resource utilization. The study raises awareness of negative impacts of increasing reliance on irrigation for food production in many countries, including food exporting countries. The findings of the study call for a greater emphasis on rainfed agriculture to improve global food security and environmental sustainability

KINEROS2 application for land use/cover change impact analysis at the Hulu Langat Basin, Malaysia

The impacts of land use/cover changes (LUCC) on a developed basin in Malaysia were evaluated. Three storm events in different intensities and durations were required for KINEROS2 (K2) calibration and LUCC impact analysis. K2 validation was performed using three other rainfall events. Calibration results showed excellent and very good fittings for runoff and sediment simulations based on the aggregated measure. Validation results demonstrated that the K2 is reliable for runoff modelling, while K2 application for sediment simulation was only valid for the period 1984-1997. LUCC impacts analysis revealed that direct runoff and sediment discharge increased with the progress of urban development and unmanaged agricultural activities. These observations were supported by the NDVI, landscape and hydrological trend analyses

Analyses of impacts of China's international trade on its water resources and uses

This study provides an insight into the impact of China's international trade of goods and services on its water resources and uses. Virtual water flows associated with China's international trade are quantified in an input-output framework. The analysis is scaled down to the sectoral and provincial levels to trace the origins and destinations of virtual water flows associated with the international trade. The results show that China is a net virtual water exporter of 4.8 × 10<sup>10</sup> m<sup>3</sup> yr<sup>−1</sup>, accounting for 2.1% of its renewable water resources and 8.6% of the total water use. Water scarce regions tend to have higher percentages of virtual water export relative to their water resources and water uses. In the water scarce Huang-Huai-Hai region, the net virtual water export accounts for 8.0% of the region's water resources and 11.3% of its water uses. For individual sectors, major net virtual water exporters are those where agriculture provides raw materials in the initial process of the production chain. The results suggest that China's economic gains from being a world "manufacture factory" have come at a high cost to its water resources

A Study of Concurrency Bugs and Advanced Development Support for Actor-based Programs

The actor model is an attractive foundation for developing concurrent applications because actors are isolated concurrent entities that communicate through asynchronous messages and do not share state. Thereby, they avoid concurrency bugs such as data races, but are not immune to concurrency bugs in general. This study taxonomizes concurrency bugs in actor-based programs reported in literature. Furthermore, it analyzes the bugs to identify the patterns causing them as well as their observable behavior. Based on this taxonomy, we further analyze the literature and find that current approaches to static analysis and testing focus on communication deadlocks and message protocol violations. However, they do not provide solutions to identify livelocks and behavioral deadlocks. The insights obtained in this study can be used to improve debugging support for actor-based programs with new debugging techniques to identify the root cause of complex concurrency bugs.Comment: - Submitted for review - Removed section 6 "Research Roadmap for Debuggers", its content was summarized in the Future Work section - Added references for section 1, section 3, section 4.3 and section 5.1 - Updated citation

Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) simulated hydrological impacts of land use change from temperate grassland to energy crops:A case study in western UK

When considering the large‐scale deployment of bioenergy crops, it is important to understand the implication for ecosystem hydrological processes and the influences of crop type and location. Based on the potential for future land use change (LUC), the 10,280 km2 West Wales Water Framework Directive River Basin District (UK) was selected as a typical grassland dominated district, and the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrology model with a geographic information systems interface was used to investigate implications for different bioenergy deployment scenarios. The study area was delineated into 855 sub‐basins and 7,108 hydrological response units based on rivers, soil type, land use, and slope. Changes in hydrological components for two bioenergy crops (Miscanthus and short rotation coppice, SRC) planted on 50% (2,192 km2) or 25% (1,096 km2) of existing improved pasture are quantified. Across the study area as a whole, only surface run‐off with SRC planted at the 50% level was significantly impacted, where it was reduced by up to 23% (during April). However, results varied spatially and a comparison of annual means for each sub‐basin and scenario revealed surface run‐off was significantly decreased and baseflow significantly increased (by a maximum of 40%) with both Miscanthus and SRC. Evapotranspiration was significantly increased with SRC (at both planting levels) and water yield was significantly reduced with SRC (at the 50% level) by up to 5%. Effects on streamflow were limited, varying between −5% and +5% change (compared to baseline) in the majority of sub‐basins. The results suggest that for mesic temperate grasslands, adverse effects from the drying of soil and alterations to streamflow may not arise, and with surface run‐off reduced and baseflow increased, there could, depending on crop location, be potential benefits for flood and erosion mitigation

Impact of changes in land use in the flow of the Pará River Basin, MG

Plant cover plays an essential role in the maintenance and balance of the hydrological cycle, performing functions in the control of water availability, which guarantee flow permanence. The use of mathematical models is an alternative to represent the hydrological system and help in the understanding of phenomena involving the variables of the water cycle, in order to anticipate and predict impacts from potential changes in land use. In the present study, the hydrological model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was used to analyse the dynamics of flow and water flow in the Pará River Basin, Minas Gerais, Brazil, aiming to evaluate the impact caused by changes in land use in water availability. The adjusted model was assessed by the coefficient of efficiency of Nash-Sutcliffe (between -0.057 to -0.059), indicating high correlation and coefficient of residual mass (0.757 to 0.793) and therefore a satisfactory fit. An increase of about 10% in the basin flow was estimated, as a function of changes in land use, when simulating the removal of the original 'Cerrado' vegetation and of the seasonal semideciduous forest for pasture implementation in 38% of the basin

Hourly Price-Based Demand Response for Optimal Scheduling of Integrated Gas and Power Networks Considering Compressed Air Energy Storage

Gas-fired plants are becoming an optimal and practical choice for power generation in electricity grids due to high efficiency and less emissions. Such plants with fast start-up capability and high ramp rate are flexible in response to stochastic load variations. Meanwhile, gas system constraints affect the flexibility and participation of such units in the energy market. Compressed air energy storage (CAES) as a flexible source with high ramp rate can be an alternative solution to reduce the impact of gas system constraints on the operation cost of a power system. In addition, demand response (DR) programs are expressed as practical approaches to overcome peak-demand challenges. This study introduces a stochastic unit commitment scheme for coordinated operation of gas and power systems with CAES technology as well as application of an hourly price-based DR. The introduced model is performed on a six-bus system with a six-node gas system to verify the satisfactory performance of the model