A literature review of the predictive validity of European dental school selection methods

© 2018 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.Non peer reviewedPostprin

Application of Permutation Genetic Algorithm for Sequential Model Building–Model Validation Design of Experiments

YesThe work presented in this paper is motivated by a complex multivariate engineering problem associated with engine mapping experiments, which require efficient Design of Experiment (DoE) strategies to minimise expensive testing. The paper describes the development and evaluation of a Permutation Genetic Algorithm (PermGA) to support an exploration-based sequential DoE strategy for complex real-life engineering problems. A known PermGA was implemented to generate uniform OLH DoEs, and substantially extended to support generation of Model Building–Model Validation (MB-MV) sequences, by generating optimal infill sets of test points as OLH DoEs, that preserve good space filling and projection properties for the merged MB + MV test plan. The algorithm was further extended to address issues with non-orthogonal design spaces, which is a common problem in engineering applications. The effectiveness of the PermGA algorithm for the MB-MV OLH DoE sequence was evaluated through a theoretical benchmark problem based on the Six-Hump-Camel-Back (SHCB) function, as well as the Gasoline Direct Injection (GDI) engine steady state engine mapping problem that motivated this research. The case studies show that the algorithm is effective at delivering quasi-orthogonal space-filling DoEs with good properties even after several MB-MV iterations, while the improvement in model adequacy and accuracy can be monitored by the engineering analyst. The practical importance of this work, demonstrated through the engine case study, also is that significant reduction in the effort and cost of testing can be achieved.The research work presented in this paper was funded by the UK Technology Strategy Board (TSB) through the Carbon Reduction through Engine Optimization (CREO) project

A cohort study of reproductive and hormonal factors and renal cell cancer risk in women

We examined the association of reproductive and hormonal factors with renal cell cancer risk in a cohort study of 89 835 Canadian women. Compared with nulliparous women, parous women were at increased risk (hazard ratio (HR) 1.78, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02–3.09), and there was a significant gradient of risk with increasing levels of parity: relative to nulliparous women, women who had X5 pregnancies lasting 4 months or more had a 2.4-fold risk (HR 1⁄4 2.41, 95% CI 1⁄4 1.27–4.59, P for trend 0.01). Ever use of oral contraceptives was associated with a modest reduction in risk. No associations were observed for age at first live birth or use of hormone replacement therapy. The present study provides evidence that high parity may be associated with increased risk of renal cell cancer, and that oral contraceptive use may be associated with reduced risk

Anatomy and Taxonomic Status of the Chasmosaurine Ceratopsid Nedoceratops hatcheri from the Upper Cretaceous Lance Formation of Wyoming, U.S.A

Background: The validity of Nedoceratops hatcheri, a chasmosaurine ceratopsid dinosaur known from a single skull recovered in the Lance Formation of eastern Wyoming, U.S.A., has been debated for over a century. Some have argued that the taxon is an aberrant Triceratops, and most recently it was proposed that N. hatcheri represents an intermediate ontogenetic stage between ‘‘young adult’ ’ and ‘‘old adult’ ’ forms of a single taxon previously split into Triceratops and Torosaurus. Methodology/Principal Findings: The holotype skull of Nedoceratops hatcheri was reexamined in order to map reconstructed areas and compare the specimen with other ceratopsids. Although squamosal fenestrae are almost certainly not of taxonomic significance, some other features are unique to N. hatcheri. These include a nasal lacking a recognizable horn, nearly vertical postorbital horncores, and relatively small parietal fenestrae. Thus, N. hatcheri is tentatively considered valid, and closely related to Triceratops spp. The holotype of N. hatcheri probably represents an ‘‘old adult,’ ’ based upon bone surface texture and the shape of the horns and epiossifications on the frill. In this study, Torosaurus is maintained as a genus distinct from Triceratops and Nedoceratops. Synonymy of the three genera as ontogenetic stages of a single taxon would require cranial changes otherwise unknown in ceratopsids, including additions of ossifications to the frill and repeated alternation of bone surface texture between juvenile and adult morphotypes

Integrated Process Chain for Aerostructural Wing Optimization and Application to an NLF Forward Swept Composite Wing

This contribution introduces an integrated process chain for aerostructural wing optimization based on high fidelity simulationmethods. The architecture of this process chain enables two of the most promising future technologies in commercial aircraft design in the context of multidisciplinary design optimization (MDO). These technologies are natural laminar flow (NLF) and aeroelastic tailoring using carbon fiber reinforced plastics (CFRP). With this new approach the application of MDO to an NLF forward swept composite wing will be possible. The main feature of the process chain is the hierarchical decomposition of the optimization problem into two levels. On the highest level the wing planform including twist and airfoil thickness distributions as well as the orthotropy direction of the composite structure will be optimized. The lower optimization level includes the wing box sizing for essential load cases considering the static aeroelastic deformations. Additionally, the airfoil shapes are transferred from a given NLF wing design. The natural laminar flow is considered by prescribing laminar-turbulent transition locations. Results of wing design studies and a wing optimization using the process chain are presented for a forward swept wing aircraft configuration. The wing optimization with 12 design parameters shows a fuel burn reduction in the order of 9% for the design mission

Towards an integrated model for breast cancer etiology: The lifelong interplay of genes, lifestyle, and hormones

While the association of a number of risk factors, such as family history and reproductive patterns, with breast cancer has been well established for many years, work in the past 10–15 years also has added substantially to our understanding of disease etiology. Contributions of particular note include the delineation of the role of endogenous and exogenous estrogens to breast cancer risk, and the discovery and quantification of risk associated with several gene mutations (e.g. BRCA1). Although it is difficult to integrate all epidemiologic data into a single biologic model, it is clear that several important components or pathways exist. Early life events probably determine both the number of susceptible breast cells at risk and whether mutations occur in these cells. High endogenous estrogens are well established as an important cause of breast cancer, and many known risk factors appear to operate through this pathway. Estrogens (and probably other growth factors) appear to accelerate the development of breast cancer at many points along the progression from early mutation to tumor metastasis, and appear to be influential at many points in a woman's life. These data now provide a basis for a number of strategies that can reduce risk of breast cancer, although some strategies represent complex decision-making. Together, the modification of nutritional and lifestyle risk factors and the judicious use of chemopreventive agents could have a major impact on breast cancer incidence. Further research is needed in many areas, but a few specific arenas are given particular mention

Worldwide comparison of survival from childhood leukaemia for 1995–2009, by subtype, age, and sex (CONCORD-2): a population-based study of individual data for 89 828 children from 198 registries in 53 countries

Background Global inequalities in access to health care are reflected in differences in cancer survival. The CONCORD programme was designed to assess worldwide differences and trends in population-based cancer survival. In this population-based study, we aimed to estimate survival inequalities globally for several subtypes of childhood leukaemia. Methods Cancer registries participating in CONCORD were asked to submit tumour registrations for all children aged 0-14 years who were diagnosed with leukaemia between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2009, and followed up until Dec 31, 2009. Haematological malignancies were defined by morphology codes in the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, third revision. We excluded data from registries from which the data were judged to be less reliable, or included only lymphomas, and data from countries in which data for fewer than ten children were available for analysis. We also excluded records because of a missing date of birth, diagnosis, or last known vital status. We estimated 5-year net survival (ie, the probability of surviving at least 5 years after diagnosis, after controlling for deaths from other causes [background mortality]) for children by calendar period of diagnosis (1995-99, 2000-04, and 2005-09), sex, and age at diagnosis (< 1, 1-4, 5-9, and 10-14 years, inclusive) using appropriate life tables. We estimated age-standardised net survival for international comparison of survival trends for precursor-cell acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) and acute myeloid leukaemia (AML). Findings We analysed data from 89 828 children from 198 registries in 53 countries. During 1995-99, 5-year agestandardised net survival for all lymphoid leukaemias combined ranged from 10.6% (95% CI 3.1-18.2) in the Chinese registries to 86.8% (81.6-92.0) in Austria. International differences in 5-year survival for childhood leukaemia were still large as recently as 2005-09, when age-standardised survival for lymphoid leukaemias ranged from 52.4% (95% CI 42.8-61.9) in Cali, Colombia, to 91.6% (89.5-93.6) in the German registries, and for AML ranged from 33.3% (18.9-47.7) in Bulgaria to 78.2% (72.0-84.3) in German registries. Survival from precursor-cell ALL was very close to that of all lymphoid leukaemias combined, with similar variation. In most countries, survival from AML improved more than survival from ALL between 2000-04 and 2005-09. Survival for each type of leukaemia varied markedly with age: survival was highest for children aged 1-4 and 5-9 years, and lowest for infants (younger than 1 year). There was no systematic difference in survival between boys and girls. Interpretation Global inequalities in survival from childhood leukaemia have narrowed with time but remain very wide for both ALL and AML. These results provide useful information for health policy makers on the effectiveness of health-care systems and for cancer policy makers to reduce inequalities in childhood survival

Global surveillance of cancer survival 1995-2009: analysis of individual data for 25,676,887 patients from 279 population-based registries in 67 countries (CONCORD-2)

BACKGROUND: Worldwide data for cancer survival are scarce. We aimed to initiate worldwide surveillance of cancer survival by central analysis of population-based registry data, as a metric of the effectiveness of health systems, and to inform global policy on cancer control. METHODS: Individual tumour records were submitted by 279 population-based cancer registries in 67 countries for 25·7 million adults (age 15-99 years) and 75,000 children (age 0-14 years) diagnosed with cancer during 1995-2009 and followed up to Dec 31, 2009, or later. We looked at cancers of the stomach, colon, rectum, liver, lung, breast (women), cervix, ovary, and prostate in adults, and adult and childhood leukaemia. Standardised quality control procedures were applied; errors were corrected by the registry concerned. We estimated 5-year net survival, adjusted for background mortality in every country or region by age (single year), sex, and calendar year, and by race or ethnic origin in some countries. Estimates were age-standardised with the International Cancer Survival Standard weights. FINDINGS: 5-year survival from colon, rectal, and breast cancers has increased steadily in most developed countries. For patients diagnosed during 2005-09, survival for colon and rectal cancer reached 60% or more in 22 countries around the world; for breast cancer, 5-year survival rose to 85% or higher in 17 countries worldwide. Liver and lung cancer remain lethal in all nations: for both cancers, 5-year survival is below 20% everywhere in Europe, in the range 15-19% in North America, and as low as 7-9% in Mongolia and Thailand. Striking rises in 5-year survival from prostate cancer have occurred in many countries: survival rose by 10-20% between 1995-99 and 2005-09 in 22 countries in South America, Asia, and Europe, but survival still varies widely around the world, from less than 60% in Bulgaria and Thailand to 95% or more in Brazil, Puerto Rico, and the USA. For cervical cancer, national estimates of 5-year survival range from less than 50% to more than 70%; regional variations are much wider, and improvements between 1995-99 and 2005-09 have generally been slight. For women diagnosed with ovarian cancer in 2005-09, 5-year survival was 40% or higher only in Ecuador, the USA, and 17 countries in Asia and Europe. 5-year survival for stomach cancer in 2005-09 was high (54-58%) in Japan and South Korea, compared with less than 40% in other countries. By contrast, 5-year survival from adult leukaemia in Japan and South Korea (18-23%) is lower than in most other countries. 5-year survival from childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia is less than 60% in several countries, but as high as 90% in Canada and four European countries, which suggests major deficiencies in the management of a largely curable disease. INTERPRETATION: International comparison of survival trends reveals very wide differences that are likely to be attributable to differences in access to early diagnosis and optimum treatment. Continuous worldwide surveillance of cancer survival should become an indispensable source of information for cancer patients and researchers and a stimulus for politicians to improve health policy and health-care systems