An optimal Skorokhod embedding for diffusions

AbstractGiven a Brownian motion (Bt)t⩾0 and a general target law μ (not necessarily centered or even in L1) we show how to construct an embedding of μ in B. This embedding is an extension of an embedding due to Perkins, and is optimal in the sense that it simultaneously minimises the distribution of the maximum and maximises the distribution of the minimum among all embeddings of μ. The embedding is then applied to regular diffusions, and used to characterise the target laws for which a Hp-embedding may be found

Robust pricing and hedging of double no-touch options

Double no-touch options, contracts which pay out a fixed amount provided an underlying asset remains within a given interval, are commonly traded, particularly in FX markets. In this work, we establish model-free bounds on the price of these options based on the prices of more liquidly traded options (call and digital call options). Key steps are the construction of super- and sub-hedging strategies to establish the bounds, and the use of Skorokhod embedding techniques to show the bounds are the best possible. In addition to establishing rigorous bounds, we consider carefully what is meant by arbitrage in settings where there is no {\it a priori} known probability measure. We discuss two natural extensions of the notion of arbitrage, weak arbitrage and weak free lunch with vanishing risk, which are needed to establish equivalence between the lack of arbitrage and the existence of a market model.Comment: 32 pages, 5 figure

From minimal embeddings to minimal diffusions

There is a natural connection between the class of diffusions, and a certain class of solutions to the Skorokhod Embedding Problem (SEP). We show that the important concept of minimality in the SEP leads to the new and useful concept of a minimal diffusion. Minimality is closely related to the martingale property. A diffusion is minimal if it minimises the expected local time at every point among all diffusions with a given distribution at an exponential time. Our approach makes explicit the connection between the boundary behaviour, the martingale property and the local time characteristics of time-homogeneous diffusions

The joint law of the extrema, final value and signature of a stopped random walk

A complete characterization of the possible joint distributions of the maximum and terminal value of uniformly integrable martingale has been known for some time, and the aim of this paper is to establish a similar characterization for continuous martingales of the joint law of the minimum, final value, and maximum, along with the direction of the final excursion. We solve this problem completely for the discrete analogue, that of a simple symmetric random walk stopped at some almost-surely finite stopping time. This characterization leads to robust hedging strategies for derivatives whose value depends on the maximum, minimum and final values of the underlying asset

Utility theory front to back:Inferring utility from agents' choices

We pursue an inverse approach to utility theory and associated consumption and investment problems. Instead of specifying a utility function and deriving the actions of an agent, we assume that we observe the actions of the agent (i.e. consumption and investment strategies) and ask if it is possible to derive a utility function for which the observed behavior is optimal. We work in continuous time both in a deterministic and stochastic setting. In the deterministic setup, we find that there are infinitely many utility functions generating a given consumption pattern. In the stochastic setting of a geometric Brownian motion market it turns out that the consumption and investment strategies have to satisfy a consistency condition (PDE) if they are to come from a classical utility maximization problem. We show further that important characteristics of the agent such as risk attitudes (e.g., DARA) can be deduced directly from the agent's consumption and investment choices. </jats:p

Local time and the pricing of time-dependent barrier options

A time-dependent double-barrier option is a derivative security that delivers the terminal value $\phi(S_T)$ at expiry $T$ if neither of the continuous time-dependent barriers b_\pm:[0,T]\to \RR_+ have been hit during the time interval $[0,T]$. Using a probabilistic approach we obtain a decomposition of the barrier option price into the corresponding European option price minus the barrier premium for a wide class of payoff functions $\phi$, barrier functions $b_\pm$ and linear diffusions $(S_t)_{t\in[0,T]}$. We show that the barrier premium can be expressed as a sum of integrals along the barriers $b_\pm$ of the option's deltas \Delta_\pm:[0,T]\to\RR at the barriers and that the pair of functions $(\Delta_+,\Delta_-)$ solves a system of Volterra integral equations of the first kind. We find a semi-analytic solution for this system in the case of constant double barriers and briefly discus a numerical algorithm for the time-dependent case.Comment: 32 pages, to appear in Finance and Stochastic

Reducing the environmental impact of surgery on a global scale: systematic review and co-prioritization with healthcare workers in 132 countries

Background Healthcare cannot achieve net-zero carbon without addressing operating theatres. The aim of this study was to prioritize feasible interventions to reduce the environmental impact of operating theatres. Methods This study adopted a four-phase Delphi consensus co-prioritization methodology. In phase 1, a systematic review of published interventions and global consultation of perioperative healthcare professionals were used to longlist interventions. In phase 2, iterative thematic analysis consolidated comparable interventions into a shortlist. In phase 3, the shortlist was co-prioritized based on patient and clinician views on acceptability, feasibility, and safety. In phase 4, ranked lists of interventions were presented by their relevance to high-income countries and low–middle-income countries. Results In phase 1, 43 interventions were identified, which had low uptake in practice according to 3042 professionals globally. In phase 2, a shortlist of 15 intervention domains was generated. In phase 3, interventions were deemed acceptable for more than 90 per cent of patients except for reducing general anaesthesia (84 per cent) and re-sterilization of ‘single-use’ consumables (86 per cent). In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for high-income countries were: introducing recycling; reducing use of anaesthetic gases; and appropriate clinical waste processing. In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for low–middle-income countries were: introducing reusable surgical devices; reducing use of consumables; and reducing the use of general anaesthesia. Conclusion This is a step toward environmentally sustainable operating environments with actionable interventions applicable to both high– and low–middle–income countries