Using intelligent optimization methods to improve the group method of data handling in time series prediction

In this paper we show how the performance of the basic algorithm of the Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH) can be improved using Genetic Algorithms (GA) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). The new improved GMDH is then used to predict currency exchange rates: the US Dollar to the Euros. The performance of the hybrid GMDHs are compared with that of the conventional GMDH. Two performance measures, the root mean squared error and the mean absolute percentage errors show that the hybrid GMDH algorithm gives more accurate predictions than the conventional GMDH algorithm

What do young athletes implicitly understand about psychological skills?

One reason sport psychologists teach psychological skills is to enhance performance in sport; but the value of psychological skills for young athletes is questionable because of the qualitative and quantitative differences between children and adults in their understanding of abstract concepts such as mental skills. To teach these skills effectively to young athletes, sport psychologists need to appreciate what young athletes implicitly understand about such skills because maturational (e.g., cognitive, social) and environmental (e.g., coaches) factors can influence the progressive development of children and youth. In the present qualitative study, we explored young athletes’ (aged 10–15 years) understanding of four basic psychological skills: goal setting, mental imagery, self-talk, and relaxation. Young athletes (n = 118: 75 males and 43 females) completed an open-ended questionnaire to report their understanding of these four basic psychological skills. Compared with the older youth athletes, the younger youth athletes were less able to explain the meaning of each psychological skill. Goal setting and mental imagery were better understood than self-talk and relaxation. Based on these findings, sport psychologists should consider adapting interventions and psychoeducational programs to match young athletes’ age and developmental level

Maximal exercise testing using the incremental shuttle walking test can be used to risk stratify patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension

Rationale: Exercise capacity predicts mortality in pulmonary arterial hypertension but limited data exist on the routine use of maximal exercise testing. Objectives: This study evaluates a simple to perform maximal test, the incremental shuttle walking test, and its utility in risk stratification in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). Methods: Consecutive patients with pulmonary hypertension were identified from the ASPIRE registry (2001-2018). Thresholds for levels of risk were identified at baseline, tested at follow-up and incorporation into current risk stratification approaches assessed. Results: Of 4524 treatment-naïve patients with pulmonary hypertension who underwent maximal exercise testing 1,847 patients had PAH. A step-wise reduction in one-year-mortality was seen between levels 1 (≤30m; 32% mortality) and 7 (340-420m; 1% mortality) with no mortality for levels 8-12 (≥430m) in idiopathic and connective tissue disease related PAH. Thresholds derived at baseline of ≤180m (>10%; high-risk), 190-330m (5-10%; intermediate-risk) and ≥340m (<5%; low-risk of one-year mortality) were applied at follow-up and also accurately identified levels of risk. Thresholds were incorporated into the REVEAL 2.0 risk score calculator and French low-risk approach to risk stratification and distinct categories of risk remained. Conclusion: We have demonstrated that maximal exercise testing in PAH stratifies mortality-risk at baseline and follow-up. This study highlights the potential value of the incremental shuttle walking test as an alternative to the 6-minute-walk-test, combining some of the advantages of maximal exercise testing whilst maintaining the simplicity of a simple to perform field test

The Physical Processes of CME/ICME Evolution

As observed in Thomson-scattered white light, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are manifest as large-scale expulsions of plasma magnetically driven from the corona in the most energetic eruptions from the Sun. It remains a tantalizing mystery as to how these erupting magnetic fields evolve to form the complex structures we observe in the solar wind at Earth. Here, we strive to provide a fresh perspective on the post-eruption and interplanetary evolution of CMEs, focusing on the physical processes that define the many complex interactions of the ejected plasma with its surroundings as it departs the corona and propagates through the heliosphere. We summarize the ways CMEs and their interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) are rotated, reconfigured, deformed, deflected, decelerated and disguised during their journey through the solar wind. This study then leads to consideration of how structures originating in coronal eruptions can be connected to their far removed interplanetary counterparts. Given that ICMEs are the drivers of most geomagnetic storms (and the sole driver of extreme storms), this work provides a guide to the processes that must be considered in making space weather forecasts from remote observations of the corona.Peer reviewe

Longitudinal risk factors for adverse psychological functioning six months after coronary artery bypass graft surgery

This research aimed to identify modifiable risk factors for poor psychological functioning six months post-operatively, using a chronic illness model to explain the relationships between risk factors. Consecutive elective CABG patients (N = 119) completed self-report measures including optimism, illness representations, self-rated health, social support, coping methods, depression, anxiety and PTSD symptomatology in a repeated measures design. Poor pre-operative psychological functioning was the strongest psychological risk factor for adverse psychological functioning six months post-operatively. Longitudinal support for the chronic illness model examined was limited. Further research to identify modifiable risk factors and pre-operative psychopathology screening to determine individuals at-risk of poor psychological outcome is recommended.Melissa Oxlad and Tracey D. Wad