Outside the Voucher: Evaluating the Creative Voucher Scheme

This chapter seeks to elaborate on what one might have expected to be the straightforward task of delivering and evaluating Creativeworks London’s (CWL) Creative Voucher scheme.1 What made the project difficult was that the notion of the “creative” voucher has not been used before; it was not a policy developed from a direct evidence base. Moreover, the Creativeworks London project was premised on the delivery of three funding streams of which the vouchers were one; indeed something approaching half of these funds were targeted to resource creative vouchers. This chapter offers a discussion of how we implemented the creative vouchers, the product of which makes up most of this volume. It also raises the question of what and how one might evaluate vouchers; something, we argue, that does not gain from a reduction to a limited set of quantitative indicators. Indeed, our reflections on the process projected us into a far more exploratory and nuanced narrative account of the vouchers; hence the chapters of this book which represent a range of different facets and experiences of the creative voucher scheme. Traditional evaluations of innovation and knowledge transfer are based upon simplistic mono-causal models whereby the dominant notion is that knowledge will naturally diffuse from high concentrations to low concentrations: like a gas; this of course is a social physics model. The failure to diffuse evenly, it is normally hypothesized, must be due to some “blockage” or “barrier.” In keeping with mechanical analogies, much policy action is focused on “fixing the plumbing” that is the leaky knowledge pipelines. The challenge is that the logic behind knowledge transfer, let alone policies such as vouchers, are seldom explicitly stated, but rather assumed as common sense. As we experience the transformation from mass production economies to those based on what are variously termed service economies, knowledge economies, or even cultural economies the physical movement of goods, innovation and ideas materialized as “solutions” (as “technology” has commonly been) has been replaced by weightless or virtual goods: ideas. Physicalist analogies might have been helpful in an old manufacturing economy; it is clear that they are less helpful in either dematerialized production, or the realm of ideas exclusively. Moreover, the Creativeworks London project was explicitly funded by the Arts and Humanities Research Council (AHRC) with a view to demonstrating the role of what the arts and humanities can contribute to the processes of knowledge transfer between universities and the creative economy (see Chapter One). It is obvious that the arts and humanities favor different approaches to knowledge than that of the sciences; in particular the humanities focus on the nature of human experience and ideas—one might argue that it is the ideal type of knowledge transfer. The humanities has a rather more nuanced and relational perspective on knowledge and human experience than the sciences, focused as they often are on physical processes and outcomes. We saw it as our task to explore and reflect on creative vouchers and meanings. Whereas the individual voucher stories provide a rich narrative of what the knowledge exchange process “looks like” and at times what it might “feel like,” and what meanings it produces for those involved, this chapter attempts to examine a linked story across the voucher process. It is not seeking to generalize or summarize, rather it explores the voucher process. In this sense we resist the traditional notion of evaluation, arguing that it is necessary to understand the process before we can possibly evaluate it against objectives, personal, institutional or political

Judgmental forecasting

[No abstract available

Feedback-labelling synergies in judgmental stock price forecasting

Research has suggested that outcome feedback is less effective than other forms of feedback in promoting learning by users of decision support systems. However, if circumstances can be identified where the effectiveness of outcome feedback can be improved, this offers considerable advantages, given its lower computational demands, ease of understanding and immediacy. An experiment in stock price forecasting was used to compare the effectiveness of outcome and performance feedback: (i) when different forms of probability forecast were required, and (ii) with and without the presence of contextual information provided as labels. For interval forecasts, the effectiveness of outcome feedback came close to that of performance feedback, as long as labels were provided. For directional probability forecasts, outcome feedback was not effective, even if labels were supplied. Implications are discussed and future research directions are suggested. © 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

A systematic review of physical activity promotion strategies

This article was first published in:British Journal of Sports Medicine:1996:30:84-89We have reviewed randomised controlled trials of physical activity promotion to provide recent and reliable information on the effectiveness of physical activity promotion. Computerised databases and references of references were searched. Experts were contacted and asked for information about existing work. Studies assessed were randomised controlled trials of healthy, free living, adult subjects, where exercise behaviour was the dependent variable. Eleven trials were identified. No United Kingdom based studies were found. Interventions that encourage walking and do not require attendance at a facility are most likely to lead to sustainable increases in overall physical activity. Brisk walking has the greatest potential for increasing overall activity levels of a sedentary population and meeting current public health recommendations. The small number of trials limits the strength of any conclusions and highlights the need for more research

Mapping reviews, scoping reviews, and evidence and gap maps (EGMs): the same but different— the “Big Picture” review family

Scoping reviews, mapping reviews, and evidence and gap maps are evidence synthesis methodologies that address broad research questions, aiming to describe a bigger picture rather than address a specific question about intervention effectiveness. They are being increasingly used to support a range of purposes including guiding research priorities and decision making. There is however a confusing array of terminology used to describe these different approaches. In this commentary, we aim to describe where there are differences in terminology and where this equates to differences in meaning. We demonstrate the different theoretical routes that underpin these differences. We suggest ways in which the approaches of scoping and mapping reviews may differ in order to guide consistency in reporting and method. We propose that mapping and scoping reviews and evidence and gap maps have similarities that unite them as a group but also have unique differences. Understanding these similarities and differences is important for informing the development of methods used to undertake and report these types of evidence synthesis

Geometric and thermodynamic properties in Gauss-Bonnet gravity

In this paper, the generalized second law (GSL) of thermodynamics and entropy is revisited in the context of cosmological models in Gauss-Bonnet gravity with the boundary of the universe is assumed to be enclosed by the dynamical apparent horizon. The model is best fitted with the observational data for distance modulus. The best fitted geometric and thermodynamic parameters such as equation of state parameter, deceleration parameter and entropy are derived. To link between thermodynamic and geometric parameters, the "entropy rate of change multiplied by the temperature" as a model independent thermodynamic state parameter is also derived. The results show that the model is in good agreement with the observational analysis.Comment: 13 pages, 13 figures, to be published in Astrophysics and Space Sc

The Pandora's Box of Evidence Synthesis and the case for a living Evidence Synthesis Taxonomy.

Have we, as an evidence-based health community, opened the Pandora's box of evidence synthesis? There now exists a plethora of overlapping evidence synthesis approaches and duplicate, redundant and poor-quality reviews.1-4 After years of advocating for the need for systematic reviews of the evidence, there is a risk that this message been disseminated too widely and has been misinterpreted in this process. We have reached a point where in some fields more reviews exist than clinical trials, where same topic reviews are being conducted in parallel, and evidence syntheses possess limited utility for decision-making because of their poor quality or poor reporting.To paraphrase the late Douglas Altman,5 it is possible we are now at a stage where we need less reviews, better reviews and reviews done for the right reason - as opposed to the current state of mass production (approximately 80 reviews per day)6.Zachary Munn, Danielle Pollock, Timothy Hugh Barker, Jennifer Stone, Cindy Stern, Edoardo Aromataris, Holger J Schünemann, Barbara Clyne, Hanan Khalil, Reem A Mustafa, Christina Godfrey, Andrew Booth, Andrea C Tricco, Alan Pearso

Epoetin alfa and outcomes in dialysis amid regulatory and payment reform

Erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs) are commonly used to treat anemia in patients with CKD, including those receiving dialysis, although clinical trials have identified risks associated with ESA use. We evaluated the effects of changes in dialysis payment policies and product labeling instituted in 2011 on mortality and major cardiovascular events across the United States dialysis population in an open cohort study of patients on dialysis from January 1, 2005, through December 31, 2012, with Medicare as primary payer. We compared observed rates of death and major cardiovascular events in 2011 and 2012 with expected rates calculated on the basis of rates in 2005-2010, accounting for differences in patient characteristics and influenza virulence. An abrupt decline in erythropoietin dosing and hemoglobin concentration began in late 2010. Observed rates of all-cause mortality, cardiovascularmortality, andmyocardial infarction in 2011 and 2012 were consistent with expected rates. During 2012, observed rates of stroke, venous thromboembolic disease (VTE), and heart failure were lower than expected (absolute deviation from trend per 100 patient-years [95% confidence interval]: 20.24 [20.08 to 20.37] for stroke, 22.43 [21.35 to 23.70] for VTE, and 20.77 [20.28 to 21.27] for heart failure), although non-ESA-related changes in practice and Medicare payment penalties for rehospitalization may have confounded the results. This initial evidence suggests that action taken to mitigate risks associated with ESA use and changes in payment policy did not result in a relative increase in death or major cardiovascular events and may reflect improvements in stroke, VTE, and heart failure

Entropy and statefinder diagnosis in chameleon cosmology

In this paper, the generalized second law (GSL) of thermodynamics and entropy is revisited in the context of cosmological models with bouncing behavior such as chameleon cosmology where the boundary of the universe is assumed to be enclosed by the dynamical apparent horizon. From a thermodynamic point of view, to link between thermodynamic and geometric parameters in cosmological models, we introduce "entropy rate of change multiplied by the temperature" as a model independent thermodynamic state parameter together with the well known $\{r,s \}$ statefinder to differentiate the dark energy models.Comment: 11 pages, 5 figures. will be published in Astrophys. Space Sc