Predicting quarterly Hong Kong tourism demand growth rates, directional changes and turning points with composite leading indicators

This study predicts numerical demand growth rates, directional changes and turning points in the growth rate using the single input leading indicator model and assesses its forecasting performance with the ARIMA model and the no-change model. To assess the forecasting performance from the March quarter of 2004 to the December quarter of 2006, models are fitted to the growth rates of Hong Kong inbound tourism demand from selected tourism markets (Australia, Japan, the UK and the USA). Composite leading indicators for the single input leading indicator model are constructed from selected national leading and lagged indicators. To avoid false signals in turning points, a method is specified to identify the correct turning points in tourism demand growth rates. The prediction performance of these models is then examined, based on the mean absolute percentage error, directional change error and turning point error. A statistical procedure is considered to determine whether the actual and predicted directional changes and turning points are independent or associated

Navigating the landscape of core outcome set development in dermatology

The development of core outcome sets (COSs; ie, a minimum set of core outcomes that should be measured and reported in all trials or in clinical practice for a specific condition) in dermatology is increasing in pace. A total of 44 dermatology-related COS projects have been registered in the online Core Outcome Measures in Effectiveness Trials database (http://www.comet-initiative.org/studies/search) and include studies on 26 different skin diseases. With the increasing number of COSs in dermatology, care is needed to ensure the delivery of high-quality COSs that meet quality standards when using state-of-the-art methods. In 2015, the Cochrane Skin-Core Outcome Set Initiative (CS-COUSIN) was established. CS-COUSIN is an international, multidisciplinary working group aiming to improve the development and implementation of COSs in dermatology. CS-COUSIN has developed guidance on how to develop high-quality COSs for skin diseases and supports dermatology-specific COS initiatives. Currently, 17 COS development groups are affiliated with CS-COUSIN and following standardized COS development processes. To ensure successful uptake of COSs in dermatology, researchers, clinicians, systematic reviewers, guideline developers, and other stakeholders should use existing COSs in their work

Illuminating the detection chain of bacterial bioreporters.

Engineering bacteria for measuring chemicals of environmental or toxicological concern (bioreporter bacteria) has grown slowly into a mature research area. Despite many potential advantages, current bioreporters do not perform well enough to comply with environmental detection standards. Basically, the reasons for this are the lack of engineering principles in the detection chain in the bioreporters. Here, we dissect critical steps in the detection chain and illustrate how bioreporter design could be improved by mutagenizing specificity and selectivity of the sensing and regulatory proteins, by newer expression strategies and application of different signalling networks. Furthermore, we describe how redesigning bioreporter assays with respect to pollutant transport into the cells and application of other detection devices can decrease detection limits and increase the speed of detection