System dynamics as a tool for exploring greenhouse gas emission mitigation potential in freight transport

In this study, system dynamics modelling is used to evaluate the impacts of decisions made by different decision makers in the freight subsector on the performance of the sector, as measured in terms of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, direct job creation, water usage and various externality costs. The focus is on gaining a deeper understanding of opportunities for reducing GHGs, and particularly on the shift of freight from road to rail. Transport of processed food along the Cape Town-Gauteng corridor is used as a case study. Decision makers considered include the freight owners and those responsible for decisions around the vehicle fleet. In the model, decision makers respond to a number of aspects of system performance, including cost, system reliability and taxes. These aspects inform their decision to shift freight on or off rail, or to invest in efficiency interventions. Decisions made in one year impact on overall system performance, which may change a decision maker?s actions in the following year. This paper describes in detail the structure of the model and how it functions. It also discusses the necessary input data, and how this was gathered. Finally, simulation results are presented and discussed.Paper presented at the 34th Annual Southern African Transport Conference 6-9 July 2015 "Working Together to Deliver - Sakha Sonke", CSIR International Convention Centre, Pretoria, South Africa.The Minister of Transport, South AfricaTransportation Research Board of the US

Understanding the barriers to a shift of processed food from road to rail through system dynamics

One of the most important greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation opportunities identified for the freight transport sector is a mode shift from road to rail. A system dynamics model was constructed to evaluate the drivers and barriers to such a mode shift and the impact on the wider economy. This paper focuses on the decision-making process that determines the movement of corridor freight, using processed food on the Cape Town-Gauteng corridor as a case study. In order that the model was an accurate representation which would facilitate discussion amongst decision makers, stakeholders were consulted as to the most important considerations in transporting processed food, their current perception of rail and the barriers to shifting to rail. Stakeholders included not only the decision makers, which included manufacturers of processed food and major retailers, but also Transnet, logistics companies, bodies lobbying government for a switch from road to rail and other experts. The paper presents the insights gained from stakeholder engagement and describes how it informed the construction of the decision-making routines in the system dynamics model. The relative importance of different decision making criteria and the tipping points in the system have begun to be identified, together with the implications of this for achieving a road to rail shift.Paper presented at the 34th Annual Southern African Transport Conference 6-9 July 2015 "Working Together to Deliver - Sakha Sonke", CSIR International Convention Centre, Pretoria, South Africa.The Minister of Transport, South AfricaTransportation Research Board of the US

APOE4 genotype exerts greater benefit in lowering plasma cholesterol and apolipoprotein B than wild type (E3/E3), after replacement of dietary saturated fats with low glycaemic index carbohydrates

We examined the impact of APOE genotype on plasma lipids and glucose in a secondary analysis of data from a five-arm, randomised controlled, parallel dietary intervention trial ('RISCK' study), to investigate the impact of replacing saturated fatty acids (SFA) with either monounsaturated fat (MUFA) or carbohydrate of high or low glycaemic index (GI) on CVD risk factors and insulin sensitivity. We tested the impact of APOE genotype (carriage of E2 and E4 alleles versus E3/E3), determined retrospectively, on plasma lipids, lipoproteins and glucose homeostasis at baseline (n = 469), and on the change in these variables after 24 weeks of dietary intervention (n = 389). At baseline, carriers of E2 (n = 70), E4 (n = 125) and E3/E3 (n = 274) expressed marked differences in total plasma cholesterol (TC, p = 0.001), low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C, p E3/E3 > E2. Following intervention, there was evidence of a significant diet x genotype interaction with significantly greater decreases in TC (p = 0.02) and apo B (p = 0.006) among carriers of E4 when SFA was replaced with low GI carbohydrate on a lower fat diet (TC -0.28 mmol/L p = 0.03; apo B -0.1 g/L p = 0.02), and a relative increase in TC (in comparison to E3/E3) when SFA was replaced with MUFA and high GI carbohydrates (TC 0.3 mmol/L, p = 0.03). Among carriers of E2 (compared with E3/E3) there was an increase in triacylglycerol (TAG) when SFA was replaced with MUFA and low GI carbohydrates 0.46 mmol/L p = 0.001). There were no significant interactions between APOE genotype and diet for changes in indices of glucose homeostasis. In conclusion, variations in APOE genotype led to differential effects on the lipid response to the replacement of SFA with MUFA and low GI carbohydrates

Understanding emission reductions in the freight transport sector through system dynamics

Paper presented at the 33rd Annual Southern African Transport Conference 7-10 July 2014 "Leading Transport into the Future", CSIR International Convention Centre, Pretoria, South Africa.The National Climate Change Response White Paper presents the government’s commitment to moving to a lower carbon economy in South Africa. The White Paper requires significant greenhouse gas (GHG) emitting sectors, including transport, to define “bottom up” carbon budgets. This work forms part of the WWF low carbon frameworks transport project and explores the implications of strategies for GHG emission reductions in the freight transport sub-sector within this context. The study uses system dynamics modelling to interrogate mitigation opportunities in this sector by looking specifically at the transport of processed food along the Cape Town-Gauteng corridor. Stakeholder input from business, labour and government is used to guide the modelling process. The objectives are to explore the implications of strategies for GHG emission reductions in the freight transport sub-sector as well as its impacts on the wider economy and environment; determine the barriers to change, with a specific focus on the mode switch from road to rail; recommend appropriate measures that could ensure developments towards achieving sustainability in transportation planning; and identify possible opportunities for further research and innovation. The methodology behind the model as well as the initial casual loop diagrams for the system dynamics model are presented in this paper.This paper was transferred from the original CD ROM created for this conference. The material was published using Adobe Acrobat 10.1.0 Technology. The original CD ROM was produced by CE Projects cc. Postal Address: PO Box 560 Irene 0062 South Africa. Tel.: +27 12 667 2074 Fax: +27 12 667 2766 E-mail: [email protected]

The Random-bond Potts model in the large-q limit

We study the critical behavior of the q-state Potts model with random ferromagnetic couplings. Working with the cluster representation the partition sum of the model in the large-q limit is dominated by a single graph, the fractal properties of which are related to the critical singularities of the random Potts model. The optimization problem of finding the dominant graph, is studied on the square lattice by simulated annealing and by a combinatorial algorithm. Critical exponents of the magnetization and the correlation length are estimated and conformal predictions are compared with numerical results.Comment: 7 pages, 6 figure

Evidence for softening of first-order transition in 3D by quenched disorder

We study by extensive Monte Carlo simulations the effect of random bond dilution on the phase transition of the three-dimensional 4-state Potts model which is known to exhibit a strong first-order transition in the pure case. The phase diagram in the dilution-temperature plane is determined from the peaks of the susceptibility for sufficiently large system sizes. In the strongly disordered regime, numerical evidence for softening to a second-order transition induced by randomness is given. Here a large-scale finite-size scaling analysis, made difficult due to strong crossover effects presumably caused by the percolation fixed point, is performed.Comment: LaTeX file with Revtex, 4 pages, 4 eps figure

Coastal squeeze on temperate reefs: Long-term shifts in salinity, water quality, and oyster-associated communities

Foundation species, such as mangroves, saltmarshes, kelps, seagrasses, and oysters, thrive within suitable environmental envelopes as narrow ribbons along the land–sea margin. Therefore, these habitat-forming species and resident fauna are sensitive to modified environmental gradients. For oysters, many estuaries impacted by sea-level rise, channelization, and municipal infrastructure are experiencing saltwater intrusion and water-quality degradation that may alter reef distributions, functions, and services. To explore decadal-scale oyster–reef community patterns across a temperate estuary in response to environmental change, we resampled reefs in the Newport River Estuary (NRE) during 2013–2015 that had previously been studied during 1955–1956. We also coalesced historical NRE reef distribution (1880s–2015), salinity (1913–2015), and water-quality-driven shellfish closure boundary (1970s–2015) data to document environmental trends that could influence reef ecology and service delivery. Over the last 60–120 years, the entire NRE has shifted toward higher salinities. Consequently, oyster–reef communities have become less distinct across the estuary, manifest by 20%–27% lower species turnover and decreased faunal richness among NRE reefs in the 2010s relative to the 1950s. During the 2010s, NRE oyster–reef communities tended to cluster around a euhaline, intertidal-reef type more so than during the 1950s. This followed faunal expansions farther up estuary and biological degradation of subtidal reefs as NRE conditions became more marine and favorable for aggressive, reef-destroying taxa. In addition to these biological shifts, the area of suitable bottom on which subtidal reefs persist (contracting due to up-estuary intrusion of marine waters) and support human harvest (driven by water quality, eroding from up-estuary) has decreased by >75% since the natural history of NRE reefs was first explored. This “coastal squeeze” on harvestable subtidal oysters (reduced from a 4.5-km to a 0.75-km envelope along the NRE's main axis) will likely have consequences regarding the economic incentives for future oyster conservation, as well as the suite of services delivered by remaining shellfish reefs (e.g., biodiversity maintenance, seafood supply). More broadly, these findings exemplify how “squeeze” may be a pervasive concern for biogenic habitats along terrestrial or marine ecotones during an era of intense global change

Task specific influences of Parkinson’s disease on the striato-thalamo-cortical and cerebello-thalamo-cortical motor circuitries

The motor deficits in Parkinson’s disease (PD) have been primarily associated with internally guided (IG), but not externally guided (EG), tasks. This study investigated the functional mechanisms underlying this phenomenon using genetically-matched twins. Functional magnetic resonance images were obtained from a monozygotic twin pair discordant for clinical PD. Single-photon emission computed tomography neuroimaging using [123I](−)-2-β-carboxymethoxy-3-β-(4-iodophenyl)tropane confirmed their disease-discordant status by demonstrating a severe loss of transporter binding in the PD-twin, whereas the non-PD-twin was normal. Six runs of fMRI data were acquired from each twin performing EG and IG right-hand finger sequential tasks. The percentage of voxels activated in each of several regions of interest (ROI) was calculated. Multiple analysis of variance was used to compare each twin’s activity in ROIs constituting the striato-thalamo-cortical motor circuits [basal ganglia (BG)-cortical circuitry, but including the globus pallidus/putamen, thalamus, supplementary motor area, and primary motor cortex] and cerebello-thalamo-cortical circuits (referred to as the cerebellar–cortical circuitry, including the cerebellum, thalamus, somatosensory cortex, and lateral premotor cortex). During the EG task, there were no significant differences between the twins in bilateral BG-cortical pathways, either basally or after levodopa, whereas the PD-twin had relatively increased activity in the cerebellar-cortical pathways basally that was normalized by levodopa. During the IG task, the PD-twin had less activation than the non-PD-twin in ROIs of the bilateral BG-cortical and cerebellar-cortical pathways. Levodopa normalized the hypoactivation in the contralateral BG-cortical pathway, but “over-corrected” the activation in the ipsilateral BG-cortical and bilateral cerebellar-cortical pathways. In this first fMRI study of twins discordant for PD, the data support the hypothesis that BG-cortical and cerebellar-cortical pathways are task-specifically influenced by PD. The levodopa-induced “over-activation” of BG-cortical and cerebellar-cortical pathways, and its relevance to both compensatory changes in PD and the long-term effects of levodopa in PD, merit further exploration