Modeling the long term dynamics of pre-vaccination pertussis

The dynamics of strongly immunizing childhood infections is still not well understood. Although reports of successful modeling of several incidence data records can be found in the literature, the key determinants of the observed temporal patterns have not been clearly identified. In particular, different models of immunity waning and degree of protection applied to disease and vaccine induced immunity have been debated in the literature on pertussis. Here we study the effect of disease acquired immunity on the long term patterns of pertussis prevalence. We compare five minimal models, all of which are stochastic, seasonally forced, well-mixed models of infection based on susceptible-infective-recovered dynamics in a closed population. These models reflect different assumptions about the immune response of naive hosts, namely total permanent immunity, immunity waning, immunity waning together with immunity boosting, reinfection of recovered, and repeat infection after partial immunity waning. The power spectra of the output prevalence time series characterize the long term dynamics of the models. For epidemiological parameters consistent with published data for pertussis, the power spectra show quantitative and even qualitative differences that can be used to test their assumptions by comparison with ensembles of several decades long pre-vaccination data records. We illustrate this strategy on two publicly available historical data sets.Comment: paper (31 pages, 11 figures, 1 table) and supplementary material (19 pages, 5 figures, 2 tables

The genetic contribution to severe post-traumatic osteoarthritis

Objective: to compare the combined role of genetic variants loci associated with risk of knee or hip osteoarthritis (OA) in post-traumatic (PT) and non-traumatic (NT) cases of clinically severe OA leading to total joint replacement. Methods: A total of 1590 controls, 2168 total knee replacement (TKR) cases (33.2% PT) and 1567 total hip replacement (THR) cases (8.7% PT) from 2 UK cohorts were genotyped for 12 variants previously reported to be reproducibly associated with risk of knee or hip OA. A genetic risk score was generated and the association with PT and NT TKR and THR was assessed adjusting for covariates. Results: For THR, each additional genetic risk variant conferred lower risk among PT cases (OR=1.07, 95% CI 0.96 to 1.19; p=0.24) than NT cases (OR 1.11, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.17; p=1.55×10−5). In contrast, for TKR, each risk variant conferred slightly higher risk among PT cases (OR 1.12, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.19; p=1.82×10−5) than among NT cases (OR 1.08, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.1; p=0.00063). Conclusions: Based on the variants reported to date PT TKR cases have at least as high a genetic contribution as NT cases

Hilbert space structure of covariant loop quantum gravity

We investigate the Hilbert space in the Lorentz covariant approach to loop quantum gravity. We restrict ourselves to the space where all area operators are simultaneously diagonalizable, assuming that it exists. In this sector quantum states are realized by a generalization of spin network states based on Lorentz Wilson lines projected on irreducible representations of an SO(3) subgroup. The problem of infinite dimensionality of the unitary Lorentz representations is absent due to this projection. Nevertheless, the projection preserves the Lorentz covariance of the Wilson lines so that the symmetry is not broken. Under certain conditions the states can be thought as functions on a homogeneous space. We define the inner product as an integral over this space. With respect to this inner product the spin networks form an orthonormal basis in the investigated sector. We argue that it is the only relevant part of a larger state space arising in the approach. The problem of the noncommutativity of the Lorentz connection is solved by restriction to the simple representations. The resulting structure shows similarities with the spin foam approach.Comment: 20 pages, RevTE

Differentiating normal and problem gambling: a grounded theory approach.

A previous study (Ricketts &amp; Macaskill, 2003) delineated a theory of problem gambling based on the experiences of treatment seeking male gamblers and allowed predictions to be made regarding the processes that differentiate between normal and problem gamblers. These predictions are the focus of the present study, which also utilised a grounded theory approach, but with a sample of male high frequency normal gamblers. The findings suggest that there are common aspects of gambling associated with arousal and a sense of achievement. The use of gambling to manage negative emotional states differentiated normal and problem gambling. Perceived self-efficacy , emotion management skills and perceived likelihood of winning money back were intervening variables differentiating problem and normal gamblers.</p

Tunneling in the topological mechanism of superconductivity

We compute the two-particle matrix element and Josephson tunneling amplitude in a two-dimensional model of topological superconductivity which captures the physics of the doped Mott insulator. The hydrodynamics of topological electronic liquid consists of the compressible charge sector and the incompressible chiral topological spin liquid. We show that ground states differing by an odd number of particles are orthogonal and insertion of two extra electrons is followed by the emission of soft modes of the transversal spin current. The orthogonality catastrophe makes the physics of superconductivity drastically different from the BCS-theory but similar to the physics of one-dimensional electronic liquids. The wave function of a pair is dressed by soft modes. As a result the two particle matrix element forms a complex d-wave representation (i.e., changes sign under $90^o$ degree rotation), although the gap in the electronic spectrum has no nodes. In contrast to the BCS-theory the tunneling amplitude has an asymmetric broad peak (much bigger than the gap) around the Fermi surface. We develop an operator algebra, that allows one to compute other correlation functions.Comment: 18 pages, 2 eps figures, revtex, psfig, significant changes have been mad

Trapped Fermi gases

We study the properties of a spin-polarized Fermi gas in a harmonic trap, using the semiclassical (Thomas-Fermi) approximation. Universal forms for the spatial and momentum distributions are calculated, and the results compared with the corresponding properties of a dilute Bose gas.Comment: 6 pages, LaTex, revtex, epsf, submitted to Phys. Rev. A, 6 December 199

Age group, location or pedagogue: factors affecting parental choice of kindergartens in Hungary

Hungary has experienced significant political, economic, demographic and social changes since the end of Soviet domination in the 1990s. The gradual move towards liberal-democracy has been accompanied by growing emphasis on individualism, choice and diversity. Universal kindergarten provision for 5-6 year olds is a long established feature of the Hungarian education system, but little is known about parental choice (Török, 2004). A case study (Yin, 2004) of factors influencing parental choice and satisfaction was undertaken in one Hungarian town. This was based on a survey of 251 parents of children attending both mixed-age and same-age groups across 12 kindergartens. Parents suggested that the most important influences were geographical location and the individual pedagogue(s). Given that traditionally each pedagogue follows ‘their’ cohort from kindergarten entry to primary school, their influence appears heightened. Although generally satisfied with their chosen arrangement, parents from same-age groups expressed significantly more confidence and satisfaction, particularly in relation to cognitive development and preparation for school. Parents appear less convinced about the trend towards mixed-age groups and questions are raised about sufficiency of evidence of their benefits in a Hungarian context and the driving factors behind change

Critical Behavior of the Supersolid transition in Bose-Hubbard Models

We study the phase transitions of interacting bosons at zero temperature between superfluid (SF) and supersolid (SS) states. The latter are characterized by simultaneous off-diagonal long-range order and broken translational symmetry. The critical phenomena is described by a long-wavelength effective action, derived on symmetry grounds and verified by explicit calculation. We consider two types of supersolid ordering: checkerboard (X) and collinear (C), which are the simplest cases arising in two dimensions on a square lattice. We find that the SF--CSS transition is in the three-dimensional XY universality class. The SF--XSS transition exhibits non-trivial new critical behavior, and appears, within a $d=3-\epsilon$ expansion to be driven generically first order by fluctuations. However, within a one--loop calculation directly in $d=2$ a strong coupling fixed point with striking ``non-Bose liquid'' behavior is found. At special isolated multi-critical points of particle-hole symmetry, the system falls into the 3d Ising universality class.Comment: RevTeX, 24 pages, 16 figures. Also available at http://www.cip.physik.tu-muenchen.de/tumphy/d/T34/Mitarbeiter/frey.htm

Substitutions near the hemagglutinin receptor-binding site determine the antigenic evolution of influenza A H3N2 viruses in U.S. swine

Swine influenza A virus is an endemic and economically important pathogen in pigs, with the potential to infect other host species. The hemagglutinin (HA) protein is the primary target of protective immune responses and the major component in swine influenza A vaccines. However, as a result of antigenic drift, vaccine strains must be regularly updated to reflect currently circulating strains. Characterizing the cross-reactivity between strains in pigs and seasonal influenza virus strains in humans is also important in assessing the relative risk of interspecies transmission of viruses from one host population to the other. Hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay data for swine and human H3N2 viruses were used with antigenic cartography to quantify the antigenic differences among H3N2 viruses isolated from pigs in the United States from 1998 to 2013 and the relative cross-reactivity between these viruses and current human seasonal influenza A virus strains. Two primary antigenic clusters were found circulating in the pig population, but with enough diversity within and between the clusters to suggest updates in vaccine strains are needed. We identified single amino acid substitutions that are likely responsible for antigenic differences between the two primary antigenic clusters and between each antigenic cluster and outliers. The antigenic distance between current seasonal influenza virus H3 strains in humans and those endemic in swine suggests that population immunity may not prevent the introduction of human viruses into pigs, and possibly vice versa, reinforcing the need to monitor and prepare for potential incursions

Assessment of highly distributed power systems using an integrated simulation approach

In a highly distributed power system (HDPS), micro renewable and low carbon technologies would make a significant contribution to the electricity supply. Further, controllable devices such as micro combined heat and power (CHP) could be used to assist in maintaining stability in addition to simply providing heat and power to dwellings. To analyse the behaviour of such a system requires the modelling of both the electrical distribution system and the coupled microgeneration devices in a realistic context. In this paper a pragmatic approach to HDPS modelling is presented: microgeneration devices are simulated using a building simulation tool to generate time-varying power output profiles, which are then replicated and processed statistically so that they can be used as boundary conditions for a load flow simulation; this is used to explore security issues such as under and over voltage, branch thermal overloading, and reverse power flow. Simulations of a section of real network are presented, featuring different penetrations of micro-renewables and micro-CHP within the ranges that are believed to be realistically possible by 2050. This analysis indicates that well-designed suburban networks are likely to be able to accommodate such levels of domestic-scale generation without problems emerging such as overloads or degradation to the quality of supply