Особенности моделирования прогнозных оценок экономических объектов

Теория и практика экономических исследований свидетельствует о том, что моделирование прогнозных оценок будущего состояния экономических объектов является наиболее успешным только в тех случаях, когда модель в полной мере отражает как природу процесса управления, так и специфику деловой среды, то есть речь идет, по сути, об адекватности используемой модели

Trends in incidence and outcomes of revision total hip arthroplasty in Spain: A population based study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>To analyze changes in incidence and outcomes of patients undergoing revision total hip arthroplasty (RTHA) over an 8-year study period in Spain.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We selected all surgical admissions in individuals aged ≥ 40 years who underwent RTHA (ICD-9-CM procedure code 81.53) between 2001 and 2008 from the Spanish National Hospital Discharge Database. Age- and sex-specific incidence rates, Charlson co-morbidity index, length of stay (LOS), costs and in-hospital mortality (IHM) were estimated for each year. Multivariate analyses were conducted to asses time trends.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>32, 280 discharges of patients (13, 391 men/18, 889 women) having undergone RTHA were identified. Overall crude incidence showed a small but significant increase from 20.2 to 21.8 RTHA per 100, 000 inhabitants from 2001 to 2008 (p < 0.01).</p> <p>The incidence increased for men (17.7 to 19.8 in 2008) but did not vary for women (22.3 in 2001 and 22.2 in 2008). Greater increments were observed in patients older than 84 years and in the age group 75-84. In 2001, 19% of RTHA patients had a Charlson Index ≥ 1 and this proportion rose to 24.6% in 2008 (p < 0.001). The ratio RTHA/THA remained stable and around 20% in Spain along the entire period</p> <p>The crude overall in-hospital mortality (IHM) increased from 1.16% in 2001 to 1.77% (p = 0.025) in 2008. For both sexes the risk of death was higher with age, with the highest mortality rates found among those aged 85 or over. After multivariate analysis no change was observed in IHM over time. The mean inflation adjusted cost per patient increased by 78.3%, from 9, 375 to 16, 715 Euros from 2001 to 2008.</p> <p>After controlling for possible confounders using Poisson regression models, we observed that the incidence of RTHA hospitalizations significantly increased for men and women over the period 2001 to 2008 (IRR 1.10, 95% CI 1.03-1.18 and 1.08, 95% CI 1.02-1.14 respectively).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The crude incidence of RTHA in Spain showed a small but significant increase from 2001 to 2008 with concomitant reductions in LOS, significant increase in co-morbidities and cost per patient.</p

Cortical beta amyloid protein triggers an immune response, but no synaptic changes in the APPswe/PS1dE9 Alzheimer's disease mouse model.

AbstractUsing microarray technology we studied the genome-wide gene expression profiles in the frontal cortex of APPswe/PS1dE9 mice and age and sex-matched littermates at the age of 2, 3, 6, 9, 12, and 15–18 months to investigate transcriptional changes that are associated with beta amyloid protein (Aβ) plaque formation and buildup. We observed the occurrence of an immune response with glial activation, but no changes in genes involved in synaptic transmission or plasticity. Comparison of the mouse gene expression data set with a human data set representing the course of Alzheimer's disease revealed a strikingly limited overlap between gene expression in the APPswe/PS1dE9 and human Alzheimer's disease prefrontal cortex. Only plexin domain containing 2, complement component 4b, and solute carrier family 14 (urea transporter) member 1 were significantly upregulated in the mouse and human brain which might suggest a function in Aβ pathology for these 3 genes. In both data sets we detected clusters of upregulated genes involved in immune-related processes. We conclude that the APPswe/PS1dE9 mouse can be a good model to study the immune response associated with cortical Aβ plaques