The Use of Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) to Predict the Carcass Composition of Lambs

The aim of this study was to develop and evaluate models for predicting the carcass composition of lambs. Forty male lambs of two different breeds were included in our analysis. The lambs were slaughtered and their hot carcass weight was obtained. After cooling for 24 hours, the subcutaneous fat thickness was measured between the 12th and 13th rib and the total breast bone tissue thickness was taken in the middle of the second sternebrae. The left side of all carcasses was dissected into five components and the proportions of lean meat, subcutaneous fat, intermuscular fat, kidney and knob channel fat, and bone plus remainder were otained. Our models for carcass composition were fitted using the SUR estimator which is novel in this area. The results were compared to OLS estimates and evaluated by several statistical measures. As the models are intended to predict carcass composition, we particularly focussed on the PRESS statistic, because it assesses the precision of the model in predicting carcass composition. Our results showed that the SUR estimator performed better in predicting LMP and IFP than the OLS estimator. Although objective carcass classification systems could be improved by using the SUR estimator, it has never been used before for predicting carcass composition.Carcass, Quality, Ordinary least squares, Seemingly unrelated regression

A worldwide model for boundaries of urban settlements

The shape of urban settlements plays a fundamental role in their sustainable planning. Properly defining the boundaries of cities is challenging and remains an open problem in the Science of Cities. Here, we propose a worldwide model to define urban settlements beyond their administrative boundaries through a bottom-up approach that takes into account geographical biases intrinsically associated with most societies around the world, and reflected in their different regional growing dynamics. The generality of the model allows to study the scaling laws of cities at all geographical levels: countries, continents, and the entire world. Our definition of cities is robust and holds to one of the most famous results in Social Sciences: Zipf's law. According to our results, the largest cities in the world are not in line with what was recently reported by the United Nations. For example, we find that the largest city in the world is an agglomeration of several small settlements close to each other, connecting three large settlements: Alexandria, Cairo, and Luxor. Our definition of cities opens the doors to the study of the economy of cities in a systematic way independently of arbitrary definitions that employ administrative boundaries

Recomendações e protocolos de actuação terapêutica: relevância para a qualidade da prescrição

A prescrição de um ou mais agentes farmacológicos constitui a forma de terminar a maior parte das consultas médicas. O modo como os medicamentos são utilizados tem consequências óbvias para a saúde dos indivíduos e das populações e para a utilização eficiente dos recursos de saúde disponíveis. Este assunto interessa aos decisores políticos, aos profissionais de saúde, aos doentes e ao público em geral

Inference for Ecological Dynamical Systems: A Case Study of Two Endemic Diseases

A Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method is used to infer parameters for an open stochastic epidemiological model: the Markovian susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model, which is suitable for modeling and simulating recurrent epidemics. This allows exploring two major problems of inference appearing in many mechanistic population models. First, trajectories of these processes are often only partly observed. For example, during an epidemic the transmission process is only partly observable: one cannot record infection times. Therefore, one only records cases (infections) as the observations. As a result some means of imputing or reconstructing individuals in the susceptible cases class must be accomplished. Second, the official reporting of observations (cases in epidemiology) is typically done not as they are actually recorded but at some temporal interval over which they have been aggregated. To address these issues, this paper investigates the following problems. Parameter inference for a perfectly sampled open Markovian SIR is first considered. Next inference for an imperfectly observed sample path of the system is studied. Although this second problem has been solved for the case of closed epidemics, it has proven quite difficult for the case of open recurrent epidemics. Lastly, application of the statistical theory is made to measles and pertussis epidemic time series data from 60 UK cities

Pulse phase and precession phase resolved spectroscopy of Her X-1: studying a representative Main-On with RXTE

We performed a detailed pulse phase resolved spectroscopy of the accreting binary X-ray pulsar Her X-1 in the energy range 3.5-75 keV and have established pulse phase profiles for all spectral parameters. For the centroid of the cyclotron line, the photon index and the flux of the 6.4 keV iron line, we have studied the variation as a function of 35 d phase. We analyzed RXTE observations of the Main-On of November 2002. Four different time intervals of about 1 d duration were selected to provide a good coverage of a complete Main-On. The intervals are centered at 35 d phase 0.03, 0.10, 0.15, and 0.20, respectively. All spectral parameters show a strong modulation with pulse phase. While the centroid energy of the cyclotron line follows roughly the shape of the pulse profile, both the photon index and the iron line intensity exhibit distinct minima around the peak of the X-ray pulse. With respect to variations of the observed profiles with 35 d phase, we find that there is a clear evolution of the shape of the pulse profiles (flux versus pulse phase), a moderate increase of the maximum cyclotron line energy (found around pulse phase 0.7), but no significant evolution of the shape of the pulse phase profiles of the cyclotron line energy, the spectral power law index or the iron line intensity. The variation of spectral parameters as a function of the pulse phase provides important information about the system: 1. the disappearance of the Fe line flux near the highest continuum flux may be an indication of a hollow cone geometry of the accretion structure; ii. the apparent non-dependence of the cyclotron line energy profiles on 35 d phase provides a new possibility to test the model of free precession of the neutron star, proposed to be responsible for the systematic variations in the pulse profiles.Comment: 10 pages, 11 figures, Accepted by A&A on the 22/12/201

Enhanced propagation of motile bacteria on surfaces due to forward scattering

How motile bacteria move near a surface is a problem of fundamental biophysical interest and is key to the emergence of several phenomena of biological, ecological and medical relevance, including biofilm formation. Solid boundaries can strongly influence a cell's propulsion mechanism, thus leading many flagellated bacteria to describe long circular trajectories stably entrapped by the surface. Experimental studies on near-surface bacterial motility have, however, neglected the fact that real environments have typical microstructures varying on the scale of the cells' motion. Here, we show that micro-obstacles influence the propagation of peritrichously flagellated bacteria on a flat surface in a non-monotonic way. Instead of hindering it, an optimal, relatively low obstacle density can significantly enhance cells' propagation on surfaces due to individual forward-scattering events. This finding provides insight on the emerging dynamics of chiral active matter in complex environments and inspires possible routes to control microbial ecology in natural habitats

Creating safety nets through semi-parametric index-based insurance: A simulation for Northern Ghana

In West Africa, farm income is highly exposed to risks from crop failure in the drier, inland areas, and from fluctuations in (world market) prices in the wetter coastal areas. As individuals and even extended families are poorly equipped to deal with these, provision of social safety nets is required Our paper reviews the situation in Ghana and the way in which the new financial instrument of index-based insurance might contribute to better it, focusing on the estimation of a crop indemnification scheme for farmers in Northern Ghana. It recalls that in a poor rural area like Northern Ghana, provision of social safety almost coincides with food security management, and must, therefore, distinguish three basic subtasks: distributing income entitlements (possibly indemnification payments from insurance) to the poor, ensuring collection of taxes (possibly insurance premiums) to fund the arrangement, and assuring delivery of staple goods, such as food to the all households, including the poor. We point out that crop insurance, in any form can at best entitle the poor, and with adequate premiums, become adequately funded, albeit that current experience suggests that farmers tend to be reluctant and to find it difficult to fulfill their obligations. Our main remark is, however, that unless the actual availability of goods is assured, the indemnification from crop insurance will under droughts only cause prices to rise and channel away scarce food from the uninsured to the insured. In short, in poor areas such as Northern Ghana co-ordinated food security management is key, particularly under severe droughts, with crop insurance possibly playing a role in the spheres of entitlement and taxation. Turning to the modalities of crop insurance, we mention the advantages of the index-based approach, which as compared to the individualized contracts of commercial insurance greatly reduces transaction costs by basing the indemnification payments on objectively and easily measurable variables, such as rainfall data collected at weather stations, and world prices of main export goods. Our contribution is an improvement of the indemnification schedules. Rather than specifying a synthetic schedule or estimating is as a parametric form, we estimate it as an optimal indemnification that minimizes farmers' risk of having their income drop below the poverty line, while restricting the indemnification to be an unknown function of index variables on weather and prices. We adapt kernel learning technique to conduct this estimation, so as to ensure that the schedule is self-financing, up to a subsidy. Our application is for Northern Ghana where poverty is highest and farming conditions are most risky. We test the scheme's performance as a social safety net in terms of its capacity to reduce basis risk and alleviate poverty. Although our schedule definitely outperforms the parametric forms, basis risk and associated poverty remain considerable.Risk and Uncertainty,

Liquidity spillover effects of equity offerings over dual-class shares

We study the spillover effect from equity offerings over dual-class shares. Whereas, evidence has been found that a seasoned equity offering improves stock liquidity, the effect over the liquidity of different type shares of the same firm has not been explored. We use equity offerings of five Latin American countries: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru, during 1995 to 2012, because dual-class shares are widely used in the regions. In spite of the expected information asymmetry reduction, using panel data models we found a stock liquidity reduction of dual-class shares upon the offering; consistent with trading migration effects, according with the theory of inventory costs

Server selection on the internet using passive probing

This paper describes a server selection mechanism for connection oriented services based on passive probing. The criterion of selection is the quality of service expected from each server, expressed as a function of availability and response time. Measures from previous connections to servers made by local clients are used to continuously update a QoS database which the prediction algorithm uses to compute the response time expected in subsequent connections. The forecasting approach is mainly based on prior measurements of TCP connection establishment time. The maximum segment size in a connection is also considered. The proposed metric is compared with other ones normally used to measure network proximity. Results show that the proposed server selection mechanism achieves a reduction of response time of over 50 percent compared with a random selection mechanism