Bayesian sequential D-D optimal model-robust designs.

Alphabetic optimal design theory assumes that the model for which the optimal design is derived is usually known. However in real-life applications, this assumption may not be credible, as models are rarely known in advance. Therefore, optimal designs derived under the classical approach may be the best design but for the wrong assumed model. In this paper, we extend Neff's (1996) Bayesian two-stage approach to design experiments for the general linear model when initial knowledge of the model is poor. A Bayesian optimality procedure that works well under model uncertainty is used in the first stage and the second stage design is then generated from an optimality procedure that incorporates the improved model knowledge from the first stage. In this way, a Bayesian D-D optimal model robust design is developed. Results show that the Bayesian D-D optimal design is superior in performance to the classical one-stage D-optimal and the one-stage Bayesian D-optimal designs. We also investigate through a simulation study the ratio of sample sizes for the two stages and the minimum sample size desirable in the first stage.Applications; D-D optimality; Knowledge; Model; Two-stage procedure; Posterior probabilities;

Model-robust and model-sensitive designs.

Abstract: The main drawback of the optimal design approach is that it assumes the statistical model is known. In this paper, a new approach to reduce the dependency on the assumed model is proposed. The approach takes into account the model uncertainty by incorporating the bias in the design criterion and the ability to test for lack-of-fit. Several new designs are derived in the paper and they are compared to the alternatives available from the literature.A-optimality; Bias; D-optimality; Lack-of-fit; Model-discrimination; Model-robustness;

Traditional Food Knowledge: New Wine Into Old Wineskins?

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Biologische REvitalisierung von Obstbäumen

Inhalt - BIOREV - Methodik - Nützliche Mikroorganismen - Nützliche Mikroorganismen - Funktionen - Physikalische Auflockerung des Bodens - Produkte-Qualitätscheck - Feldversuche -Versuchsdesign - Erhebung der mikrobiellen Aktivität - Fazit - Indirektes Management – Anwendung von Pflanzenkohle - Indirektes Management durch Bewirtschaftungsmethode

Comparison of health conditions treated with traditional and biomedical health care in a Quechua community in rural Bolivia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The objective of the present study was to reveal patterns in the treatment of health conditions in a Quechua-speaking community in the Bolivian Andes based on plant use data from traditional healers and patient data from a primary health care (PHC) service, and to demonstrate similarities and differences between the type of illnesses treated with traditional and biomedical health care, respectively.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A secondary analysis of plant use data from semi-structured interviews with eight healers was conducted and diagnostic data was collected from 324 patients in the community PHC service. Health conditions were ranked according to: (A) the percentage of patients in the PHC service diagnosed with these conditions; and (B) the citation frequency of plant use reports to treat these conditions by healers. Healers were also queried about the payment modalities they offer to their patients.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Plant use reports from healers yielded 1166 responses about 181 medicinal plant species, which are used to treat 67 different health conditions, ranging from general symptoms (e.g. fever and body pain), to more specific ailments, such as arthritis, biliary colic and pneumonia. The results show that treatment offered by traditional medicine overlaps with biomedical health care in the case of respiratory infections, wounds and bruises, fever and biliary colic/cholecystitis. Furthermore, traditional health care appears to be complementary to biomedical health care for chronic illnesses, especially arthritis, and for folk illnesses that are particularly relevant within the local cultural context. Payment from patients to healers included flexible, outcome contingent and non-monetary options.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Traditional medicine in the study area is adaptive because it corresponds well with local patterns of morbidity, health care needs in relation to chronic illnesses, cultural perceptions of health conditions and socio-economic aspects of health care. The quantitative analysis of plant use reports and patient data represents a novel approach to compare the contribution of traditional and biomedical health care to treatment of particular health conditions.</p

Taming the pandemic? The importance of homemade plant-based foods and beverages as community responses to COVID-19

Household responses to COVID-19 in different corners of the world represent the primary health care that communities have relied on for preventing and mitigating symptoms. During a very complex and confusing time, in which public health services in multiple countries have been completely overwhelmed, and in some cases even collapsed, these first-line household responses have been quintessential for building physical, mental, and social resilience, and for improving individual and community health. This editorial discusses the outcomes of a rapid-response preliminary survey during the first phase of the pandemic among social and community contacts in five metropolises heavily affected by the COVID-19 health crisis (Wuhan, Milan, Madrid, New York, and Rio de Janeiro), and in twelve rural areas or countries initially less affected by the pandemic (Appalachia, Jamaica, Bolivia, Romania, Belarus, Lithuania, Poland, Georgia, Turkey, Pakistan, Cambodia, and South Africa). We summarized our perspectives as 17 case studies, observing that people have relied primarily on teas and spices (“food-medicines”) and that there exist clear international plant favorites, popularized by various new media. Urban diasporas and rural households seem to have repurposed homemade plant-based remedies that they use in normal times for treating the flu and other respiratory symptoms or that they simply consider healthy foods. The most remarkable shift in many areas has been the increased consumption of ginger and garlic, followed by onion, turmeric, and lemon. Our preliminary inventory of food medicines serves as a baseline for future systematic ethnobotanical studies and aims to inspire in-depth research on how use patterns of plant-based foods and beverages, both “traditional” and “new”, are changing during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Our reflections in this editorial call attention to the importance of ethnobiology, ethnomedicine, and ethnogastronomy research into domestic health care strategies for improving community health

Medicinal plants used by women in Mecca: urban, Muslim and gendered knowledge

Background: This study explores medicinal plant knowledge and use among Muslim women in the city of Mecca, Saudi Arabia. Ethnobotanical research in the region has focused on rural populations and male herbal healers in cities, and based on these few studies, it is suggested that medicinal plant knowledge may be eroding. Here, we document lay, female knowledge of medicinal plants in an urban centre, interpreting findings in the light of the growing field of urban ethnobotany and gendered knowledge and in an Islamic context. Methods: Free-listing, structured and semi-structured interviews were used to document the extent of medicinal plant knowledge among 32 Meccan women. Vernacular names, modes of preparation and application, intended therapeutic use and emic toxicological remarks were recorded. Women were asked where they learnt about medicinal plants and if and when they preferred using medicinal plants over biomedical resources. Prior informed consent was always obtained. We compared the list of medicinal plants used by these Meccan women with medicinal plants previously documented in published literature. Results: One hundred eighteen vernacular names were collected, corresponding to approximately 110 plants, including one algae. Of these, 95 were identified at the species level and 39 (41%) had not been previously cited in Saudi Arabian medicinal plant literature. Almost one half of the plants cited are food and flavouring plants. Meccan women interviewed learn about medicinal plants from their social network, mass media and written sources, and combine biomedical and medicinal plant health care. However, younger women more often prefer biomedical resources and learn from written sources and mass media. Conclusions: The fairly small number of interviews conducted in this study was sufficient to reveal the singular body of medicinal plant knowledge held by women in Mecca and applied to treat common ailments. Plant availability in local shops and markets and inclusion in religious texts seem to shape the botanical diversity used by the Meccan women interviewed, and the use of foods and spices medicinally could be a global feature of urban ethnobotany. Ethnobotanical knowledge among women in Islamic communities may be changing due to access to mass media and biomedicine. We recognise the lack of documentation of the diversity of medicinal plant knowledge in the Arabian Peninsula and an opportunity to better understand gendered urban and rural knowledge

Numerical simulation of the flexural behaviour of composite glass-GFRP beams using smeared crack models

This paper presents a numerical study about the flexural behaviour of rectangular composite glass-GFRP beams, comprising annealed glass and GFRP pultruded profiles bonded with two different adhesives: (soft) polyurethane and (stiff) epoxy. The main objectives of this study were: (i) to fully characterize the non-linear behaviour of glass using the smeared crack approach; and (ii) to assess the applicability of different options to simulate adhesively bonded glass-GFRP joints. An extensive parametric study was developed to evaluate the influence of five parameters on the glass post-cracking non-linear behaviour: (i) glass fracture energy, Gf, (ii) crack band width, h, (iii) glass tensile strength, fg,t, (iv) shape of the tension-softening diagram, and (v) shear retention factor, β. The wide range of the joints’ shear stiffness was simulated by either (i) assuming a perfect bond between glass and GFRP (i.e., neglecting the presence of the adhesive), or (ii) explicitly considering the adhesive, by means of using (ii.1) plane stress elements, or (ii.2) interface elements. For the beams analysed in this paper, the following material model for glass provided a good agreement with experimental results: Gf in the range of 3 to 300 N/m, h equal to the square root of the finite element area, fg,t = 50 MPa, linear softening diagram and β according to a power law. It was also shown that the hypothesis of perfect bond at the GFRP-glass interfaces allows for an accurate simulation of joints with high levels of interaction (epoxy), while calibrated interface elements are needed for joints with low level of interaction (polyurethane).The authors wish to acknowledge FCT, ICIST/CERIS and ISISE for funding the research, and companies SIKA, Guardian and ALTO for supplying the adhesives, the glass panes and the GFRP pultruded profiles used in the experiments. The first author also wishes to thank FCT for the financial support through his PhD scholarship SFRH/BD/80234/2011