Spatial multi-criteria decision analysis to predict suitability for African swine fever endemicity in Africa

Background African swine fever (ASF) is endemic in several countries of Africa and may pose a risk to all pig producing areas on the continent. Official ASF reporting is often rare and there remains limited awareness of the continent-wide distribution of the disease. In the absence of accurate ASF outbreak data and few quantitative studies on the epidemiology of the disease in Africa, we used spatial multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to derive predictions of the continental distribution of suitability for ASF persistence in domestic pig populations as part of sylvatic or domestic transmission cycles. In order to incorporate the uncertainty in the relative importance of different criteria in defining suitability, we modelled decisions within the MCDA framework using a stochastic approach. The predictive performance of suitability estimates was assessed via a partial ROC analysis using ASF outbreak data reported to the OIE since 2005. Results Outputs from the spatial MCDA indicate that large areas of sub-Saharan Africa may be suitable for ASF persistence as part of either domestic or sylvatic transmission cycles. Areas with high suitability for pig to pig transmission (‘domestic cycles’) were estimated to occur throughout sub-Saharan Africa, whilst areas with high suitability for introduction from wildlife reservoirs (‘sylvatic cycles’) were found predominantly in East, Central and Southern Africa. Based on average AUC ratios from the partial ROC analysis, the predictive ability of suitability estimates for domestic cycles alone was considerably higher than suitability estimates for sylvatic cycles alone, or domestic and sylvatic cycles in combination. Conclusions This study provides the first standardised estimates of the distribution of suitability for ASF transmission associated with domestic and sylvatic cycles in Africa. We provide further evidence for the utility of knowledge-driven risk mapping in animal health, particularly in data-sparse environments.</p

Systematic review of the magnitude of change in the prevalence of Salmonella and the quantity of Salmonella after administration of pathogen reduction treatments on Pork Carcasses: Interim summary

Our objective was to review and describe the change in prevalence and/or quantity of Salmonella associated with pathogen reduction treatments (washes, sprays, etc.) on pork carcasses or carcass parts with skin in comparative experimental designs. This is an interim summary

Toxoplasma gondii is not an important contributor to poor reproductive performance of primiparous ewes from southern Australia: A prospective cohort study

Background Toxoplasma gondii causes reproductive losses in sheep worldwide, including Australia. The reproductive performance of primiparous ewes is typically lower than for mature, multiparous ewes, and younger ewes are more likely to be immunologically naïve and therefore more susceptible to reproductive disease if T. gondii infection occurs during pregnancy. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of infection with T. gondii on the reproductive performance of primiparous ewes in southern Australia using a prospective cohort study. This will inform the need for targeted control strategies for T. gondii in Australian sheep. Results Toxoplasma gondii seropositivity using indirect ELISA was detected at 16/28 farms located across southern Australia. Apparent seropositivity to T. gondii was lower in primiparous ewes (1.1, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.6, 1.8) compared to mature, multiparous ewes (8.1, 95% CI 6.0, 10.5; P < 0.001). Toxoplasma gondii seroconversion during the gestation and lambing period was confirmed for 11/1097 (1.0, 95% CI 0.5, 1.7) of pregnant primiparous ewes that failed to raise a lamb, and 1/161 (0.6, 95% CI 0.1, 2.9) primiparous ewes with confirmed mid-pregnancy abortion. Conclusions Low frequency of detection of T. gondii seroconversion during gestation and low frequency of seropositivity to T. gondii suggests that toxoplasmosis was not an important contributor to reproductive losses in primiparous ewes on farms located over a wide geographical area in southern Australia

Abortion and lamb mortality between pregnancy scanning and lamb marking for maiden ewes in southern Australia

The contribution of abortions to the overall mortality of lambs born to maiden (primiparous) ewes in Australia remains unclear. This cohort study aimed to quantify abortion and lamb mortality for ewe lambs and maiden Merino two-tooth ewes. Lamb mortality from pregnancy scanning to marking were determined for 19 ewe lamb and 11 Merino two-tooth ewe flocks across southern Australia. Average lamb mortality from scanning to marking was 35.8% (range 14.3–71.1%) for the ewe lambs and 29.4% (range 19.7–52.7%) for the two-tooth ewes. Mid-pregnancy abortion was detected in 5.7% of ewes (range 0–50%) in the ewe lamb flocks and 0.9% of ewes (range 0–4.4%) in the two-tooth ewe flocks. Mid-pregnancy abortion affecting ≥2% of ewes was observed in 6/19 ewe lamb flocks and 2/11 two-tooth ewe flocks. Lamb mortality from birth to marking represented the greatest contributor to foetal and lamb mortality after scanning, but mid-pregnancy abortion was an important contributor to lamb mortality in some ewe lamb flocks. Variability between the flocks indicates scope to improve the overall reproductive performance for maiden ewes by reducing foetal and lamb losses. Addressing mid-pregnancy abortion may improve the reproductive performance in some flocks

Household socio-economic position and individual infectious disease risk in rural Kenya

The importance of household socio-economic position (SEP) in shaping individual infectious disease risk is increasingly recognised, particularly in low income settings. However, few studies have measured the extent to which this association is consistent for the range of pathogens that are typically endemic among the rural poor in the tropics. This cross-sectional study assessed the relationship between SEP and human infection within a single community in western Kenya using a set of pathogens with diverse transmission routes. The relationships between household SEP and individual infection with Plasmodium falciparum, hookworm (Ancylostoma duodenale and/or Necator americanus), Entamoeba histolytica/dispar, Mycobacterium tuberculosis, and HIV, and co-infections between hookworm, P. falciparum and E. histolytica/dispar, were assessed using multivariable logistic and multinomial regression. Individuals in households with the lowest SEP were at greatest risk of infection with P. falciparum, hookworm and E. histolytica/dispar, as well as co-infection with each pathogen. Infection with M. tuberculosis, by contrast, was most likely in individuals living in households with the highest SEP. There was no evidence of a relationship between individual HIV infection and household SEP. We demonstrate the existence of a household socio-economic gradient within a rural farming community in Kenya which impacts upon individual infectious disease risk. Structural adjustments that seek to reduce poverty, and therefore the socio-economic inequalities that exist in this community, would be expected to substantially reduce overall infectious disease burden. However, policy makers and researchers should be aware that heterogeneous relationships can exist between household SEP and infection risk for different pathogens in low income settings

Types and characteristics of urban and peri-urban green spaces having an impact on human mental health and wellbeing: a systematic review

Green spaces have been put forward as contributing to good mental health. In an urban context, space is a scarce resource while urbanisation and climate change are increasingly putting pressure on existing urban green space infrastructures and increasing morbidity caused by mental health disorders. Policy makers, designers, planners and other practitioners face the challenge of designing public open spaces as well as preserving and improving natural resources that are important for maintaining and optimizing human wellbeing. Knowing which types of blue and green spaces, with which characteristics, are most beneficial for mental health and wellbeing is critical. EKLIPSE received a request from the Ministry in charge of the Environment of France (MTES) to review: “Which types of urban and peri‐urban green and blue spaces, and which characteristics of such spaces, have a significant impact on human mental health and wellbeing?”. After a preliminary scoping, a decision was made to perform two systematic reviews (SR) assessing the specific types and characteristics of blue space (SR1) and green space (SR2) with respect to mental health and wellbeing. This report presents the systematic review for green space (SR2)