The log-periodic-AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) model for financial crashes

This paper intends to meet recent claims for the attainment of more rigorous statistical methodology within the econophysics literature. To this end, we consider an econometric approach to investigate the outcomes of the log-periodic model of price movements, which has been largely used to forecast financial crashes. In order to accomplish reliable statistical inference for unknown parameters, we incorporate an autoregressive dynamic and a conditional heteroskedasticity structure in the error term of the original model, yielding the log-periodic-AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) model. Both the original and the extended models are fitted to financial indices of U. S. market, namely S&P500 and NASDAQ. Our analysis reveal two main points: (i) the log-periodic-AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) model has residuals with better statistical properties and (ii) the estimation of the parameter concerning the time of the financial crash has been improved.Comment: 17 pages, 4 figures, 12 tables, to appear in Europen Physical Journal

A randomised, controlled trial of a dietary intervention for adults with major depression (the "SMILES" trial): study protocol

Despite increased investment in its recognition and treatment, depression remains a substantial health and economic burden worldwide. Current treatment strategies generally focus on biological and psychological pathways, largely neglecting the role of lifestyle. There is emerging evidence to suggest that diet and nutrition play an important role in the risk, and the genesis, of depression. However, there are limited data regarding the therapeutic impact of dietary changes on existing mental illness. Using a randomised controlled trial design, we aim to investigate the efficacy and cost-efficacy of a dietary program for the treatment of Major Depressive Episodes. <br /

The log-periodic-AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) model for financial crashes

This paper intends to meet recent claims for the attainment of more rigorous statistical methodology within the econophysics literature. To this end, we consider an econometric approach to investigate the outcomes of the log-periodic model of price movements, which has been largely used to forecast financial crashes. In order to accomplish reliable statistical inference for unknown parameters, we incorporate an autoregressive dynamic and a conditional heteroskedasticity structure in the error term of the original model, yielding the log-periodic-AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) model. Both the original and the extended models are fitted to financial indices of U. S. market, namely S&P500 and NASDAQ. Our analysis reveal two main points: (i) the log-periodic-AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) model has residuals with better statistical properties and (ii) the estimation of the parameter concerning the time of the financial crash has been improved.

Francesco Durante and the first intracranial tumor successfully operated on with long survival (1884)

Francesco Durante was born in Sicily, precisely Letojanni Gallodoro. He contributed to the history of neurosurgery in not only Italy but the whole world. In June 1884, he removed a left frontal meningioma, describing a personal technique of craniotomy with a discontinuous osteotangential section flap. It was the first such operation to be performed in any country after which the patient had a long survival. The important and pioneering contribution made by Durante to the history of neurosurgery is testified by his Treaty on Pathology and Surgical Therapy. Durante's procedure for craniotomy remained the best for several years. His contributions are still valid in medicine today, within not only the neurosurgical community but also other surgical disciplines, because he also developed innovative practices in the fields of oncology, general surgery, and orthopedics in addition to designing special surgical instruments

Afeto, intensidade e confiança na experiência analítica: algumas considerações sobre a heterodoxia clínica de S. Ferenczi Affection, intensity and confidence in the analytical experience: a few considerations about the S. Ferenczi clinical heterodoxy

Pretende-se examinar a atualidade das contribuições do pensamento de Sándor Ferenczi para a construção da experiência analítica. Em um primeiro momento, visa-se discutir os conceitos de afeto e intensidade em sua obra, para, em seguida, examinar com mais profundidade algumas questões por ele levantadas acerca do lugar do analista e da importância da confiança e da sinceridade do analista no dispositivo analítico, questões essas intensificadas quando de sua última inventiva metodológica, a saber, a análise mútua.<br>This article aims at studying the currentness of the contributions of Sándor Ferenczi's thought in the building of the psychoanalytical experience. To begin with, the affection and intensity concepts as described in his work will be put into discussion and, subsequently, some issues he raised concerning the analyst's place as well as the analyst's confidence and frankness in the analytical apparatus will be examined in detail. Such issues have been intensified in Ferenczi's late methodology, known as mutual analysis

Translation factor mRNA granules direct protein synthetic capacity to regions of polarized growth

mRNA localization serves key functions in localized protein production, making it critical that the translation machinery itself is present at these locations. Here we show that translation factor mRNAs are localized to distinct granules within yeast cells. In contrast to many messenger RNP granules, such as processing bodies and stress granules, which contain translationally repressed mRNAs, these granules harbor translated mRNAs under active growth conditions. The granules require Pab1p for their integrity and are inherited by developing daughter cells in a She2p/She3p-dependent manner. These results point to a model where roughly half the mRNA for certain translation factors is specifically directed in granules or translation factories toward the tip of the developing daughter cell, where protein synthesis is most heavily required, which has particular implications for filamentous forms of growth. Such a feedforward mechanism would ensure adequate provision of the translation machinery where it is to be needed most over the coming growth cycle.Fil: Pizzinga, Mariavittoria. University of Manchester; Reino UnidoFil: Bates, Christian. University of Manchester; Reino UnidoFil: Lui, Jennifer. University of Manchester; Reino UnidoFil: Forte, Gabriella. University of Manchester; Reino UnidoFil: Morales-Polanco, Fabián. University of Manchester; Reino UnidoFil: Linney, Emma. University of Manchester; Reino UnidoFil: Knotkova, Barbora. University of Manchester; Reino UnidoFil: Wilson, Beverley. University of Manchester; Reino UnidoFil: Solari, Clara Andrea. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Química Biológica de la Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Química Biológica de la Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; ArgentinaFil: Berchowitz, Luke E.. Columbia University Medical Center; Estados UnidosFil: Portela, Paula. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Química Biológica de la Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Química Biológica de la Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; ArgentinaFil: Ashe, Mark P.. University of Manchester; Reino Unid