Advancing the application of systems thinking in health: why cure crowds out prevention

INTRODUCTION: This paper presents a system dynamics computer simulation model to illustrate unintended consequences of apparently rational allocations to curative and preventive services. METHODS: A modeled population is subject to only two diseases. Disease A is a curable disease that can be shortened by curative care. Disease B is an instantly fatal but preventable disease. Curative care workers are financed by public spending and private fees to cure disease A. Non-personal, preventive services are delivered by public health workers supported solely by public spending to prevent disease B. Each type of worker tries to tilt the balance of government spending towards their interests. Their influence on the government is proportional to their accumulated revenue. RESULTS: The model demonstrates effects on lost disability-adjusted life years and costs over the course of several epidemics of each disease. Policy interventions are tested including: i) an outside donor rationally donates extra money to each type of disease precisely in proportion to the size of epidemics of each disease; ii) lobbying is eliminated; iii) fees for personal health services are eliminated; iv) the government continually rebalances the funding for prevention by ring-fencing it to protect it from lobbying. The model exhibits a “spend more get less” equilibrium in which higher revenue by the curative sector is used to influence government allocations away from prevention towards cure. Spending more on curing disease A leads paradoxically to a higher overall disease burden of unprevented cases of disease B. This paradoxical behavior of the model can be stopped by eliminating lobbying, eliminating fees for curative services, and ring-fencing public health funding. CONCLUSIONS: We have created an artificial system as a laboratory to gain insights about the trade-offs between curative and preventive health allocations, and the effect of indicative policy interventions. The underlying dynamics of this artificial system resemble features of modern health systems where a self-perpetuating industry has grown up around disease-specific curative programs like HIV/AIDS or malaria. The model shows how the growth of curative care services can crowd both fiscal and policy space for the practice of population level prevention work, requiring dramatic interventions to overcome these trends.DFI

Experimental comparison of kalman and complementary filter for attitude estimation

This paper presents an experimental comparison of the Kalman and complementary filter for attitude estimation of a microwave quadrotor, fusing measurements from inertial MEMs devices. Simulations on Kalman and complementary filters are performed to study how the parameters affect the estimations of each one. Finally, the experimental results are presented using real data, which are used for both noise parameter modelling and comparing the performance of the filters given different operating conditions of the experimental platform.Sociedad Argentina de Informática e Investigación Operativ

A gain-of-function mutation in the cardiac pacemaker HCN4 channel increasing cAMP sensitivity is associated with familial Inappropriate Sinus Tachycardia

Aims Inappropriate Sinus Tachycardia (IST), a syndrome characterized by abnormally fast sinus rates and multisystem symptoms, is still poorly understood. Because of the relevance of HCN4 channels to pacemaker activity, we used a candidate-gene approach and screened IST patients for the presence of disease-causing HCN4 mutations. Methods and results Forty-eight IST patients, four of whom of known familial history, were enrolled in the study. We initially identified in one of the patients with familial history the R524Q mutation in HCN4. Investigation extended to the family members showed that the mutation co-segregated with IST-related symptoms. The R524Q mutation is located in the C-linker, a region known to couple cAMP binding to channel activation. The functional relevance of the mutation was investigated in heterologous expression systems by patch-clamp experiments. We found that mutant HCN4 channels were more sensitive to cAMP than wild-type channels, in agreement with increased sensitivity to basal and stimulated adrenergic input and with a faster than normal pacemaker rate. The properties of variant channels indicate therefore that R524Q is a gain-of-function mutation. Increased channel contribution to activity was confirmed by evidence that when spontaneously beating rat newborn myocytes were transfected with R524Q mutant HCN4 channels, they exhibited a faster rate than when transfected with wild-type HCN4 channels. Conclusion This is the first report of a gain-of-function HCN4 mutation associated with IST through increased sensitivity to cAMP-dependent activation

Maternal and Neonatal Implementation for Equitable Systems. A Study Design Paper

Background: Evidence on effective ways of improving maternal and neonatal health outcomes is widely available. The challenge that most low-income countries grapple with is implementation at scale and sustainability. Objectives: The study aimed at improving access to quality maternal and neonatal health services in a sustainable manner by using a participatory action research approach. Methods: The study consisted of a quasi-experimental design, with a participatory action research approach to implementation in three rural districts (Pallisa, Kibuku and Kamuli) in Eastern Uganda. The intervention had two main components; namely, community empowerment for comprehensive birth preparedness, and health provider and management capacity-building. We collected data using both quantitative and qualitative methods using household and facility-level structured surveys, record reviews, key informant interviews and focus group discussions. We purposively selected the participants for the qualitative data collection, while for the surveys we interviewed all eligible participants in the sampled households and health facilities. Descriptive statistics were used to describe the data, while the difference in difference analysis was used to measure the effect of the intervention. Qualitative data were analysed using thematic analysis. Conclusions: This study was implemented to generate evidence on how to increase access to quality maternal and newborn health services in a sustainable manner using a multisectoral participatory approach.DFI

Scaling Up ART Adherence Clubs in the Public Sector Health System in the Western Cape, South Africa: a Study of the Institutionalisation of a Pilot Innovation

In 2011, a decision was made to scale up a pilot innovation involving ‘adherence clubs’ as a form of differentiated care for HIV positive people in the public sector antiretroviral therapy programme in the Western Cape Province of South Africa. In 2016 we were involved in the qualitative aspect of an evaluation of the adherence club model, the overall objective of which was to assess the health outcomes for patients accessing clubs through epidemiological analysis, and to conduct a health systems analysis to evaluate how the model of care performed at scale. In this paper we adopt a complex adaptive systems lens to analyse planned organisational change through intervention in a state health system. We explore the challenges associated with taking to scale a pilot that began as a relatively simple innovation by a non-governmental organisation

Participatory monitoring and evaluation approaches that influence decision-making: lessons from a maternal and newborn study in Eastern Uganda

BACKGROUND: The use of participatory monitoring and evaluation (M&E) approaches is important for guiding local decision-making, promoting the implementation of effective interventions and addressing emerging issues in the course of implementation. In this article, we explore how participatory M&E approaches helped to identify key design and implementation issues and how they influenced stakeholders’ decision-making in eastern Uganda. METHOD: The data for this paper is drawn from a retrospective reflection of various M&E approaches used in a maternal and newborn health project that was implemented in three districts in eastern Uganda. The methods included qualitative and quantitative M&E techniques such as key informant interviews, formal surveys and supportive supervision, as well as participatory approaches, notably participatory impact pathway analysis. RESULTS: At the design stage, the M&E approaches were useful for identifying key local problems and feasible local solutions and informing the activities that were subsequently implemented. During the implementation phase, the M&E approaches provided evidence that informed decision-making and helped identify emerging issues, such as weak implementation by some village health teams, health facility constraints such as poor use of standard guidelines, lack of placenta disposal pits, inadequate fuel for the ambulance at some facilities, and poor care for low birth weight infants. Sharing this information with key stakeholders prompted them to take appropriate actions. For example, the sub-county leadership constructed placenta disposal pits, the district health officer provided fuel for ambulances, and health workers received refresher training and mentorship on how to care for newborns. CONCLUSION: Diverse sources of information and perspectives can help researchers and decision-makers understand and adapt evidence to contexts for more effective interventions. Supporting districts to have crosscutting, routine information generating and sharing platforms that bring together stakeholders from different sectors is therefore crucial for the successful implementation of complex development interventions