Fixed Exchange Rate Credibility with Heterogeneous Expectations

After disinflation has been achieved, agents who form more sophisticated forecasts have lower confidence in the sustainability of a peg compared to less sophisticated agents. Furthermore, sustained financial stability leads to a declining proportion of sophisticated agents. Thus, the credibility of a fixed exchange rate regime grows over time partly because fewer people pay attention to the workings of the monetary regime. These results are derived in a rules-versus-discretion model of a fixed exchange rate regime with heterogeneous agents. We provide unique supporting evidence using data on expectations and information about the monetary regime from Bulgaria's currency board. Working Paper 06-2

Tenuous Financial Stability

Many countries fix their exchange rate in order to bring financial stability. Usually, inflation declines and output expands but contractual agreements retain their short time frame, investment is sluggish, and economic growth slows down a few years later. This outcome is often attributed to persistent doubts on the part of agents in the commitment and ability of the government to maintain the peg. Yet direct evidence for credibility is difficult to obtain. Unique survey data from Bulgaria reveal that expectations of devaluation were indeed very much present three, four, and five years after that country achieved financial stability under a currency board regime.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39925/3/wp540.pd

Beliefs about Exchange-Rate Stability: Survey Evidence From the Currency Board in Bulgaria

We use unique survey data from Bulgaria’s currency board to examine the reasons for persistent incomplete credibility of a financial stabilization regime. Although it produced remarkably positive effects in terms of sustained low inflation since 1997, the currency board has not achieved full credibility. This is not uncommon in other less-developed countries with fixed exchange rate regimes. Our results reveal that incomplete credibility is explained primarily by concerns about external economic shocks and the persistent high unemployment in the country. Past experiences with high inflation do not rank among the top reasons to expect financial instability in the future.Credibility, Currency Boards, Financial Stabilization Programs

Tenuous Financial Stability

Many countries fix their exchange rate in order to bring financial stability. Usually, inflation declines and output expands but contractual agreements retain their short time frame, investment is sluggish, and economic growth slows down a few years later. This outcome is often attributed to persistent doubts on the part of agents in the commitment and ability of the government to maintain the peg. Yet direct evidence for credibility is difficult to obtain. Unique survey data from Bulgaria reveal that expectations of devaluation were indeed very much present three, four, and five years after that country achieved financial stability under a currency board regime.Credibility, Currency boards, Stabilization programs

Fertilizer Consumption in Rwanda: Past Trends, Future Potential, and Determinants

Paper prepared for the Policy Workshop on Fertilizer Use and Marketing, organized by MINAGRI and USAID, Rwanda, 22-23 February 20001.food security, food policy, Rwanda, fertilizer consumption, Crop Production/Industries, Q18,

Implications of Weak-Interaction Space Deformation for Neutrino Mass Measurements

The negative values for the squares of both electron and muon neutrino masses obtained in recent experiments are explained as a possible consequence of a change in metric within the weak-interaction volume in the energy-momentum representation. Using a model inspired by a combination of the general theory of relativity and the theory of deformation for continuous media, it is shown that the negative value of the square of the neutrino mass can be obtained without violating allowed physical limits. The consequence is that the negative value is not necessary unphysical.Comment: 12 pages, 5 figures, LaTe

Основные этапы развития идеографии: подходы, категории, лексикографирование

Статья из специализированного выпуска научного журнала "Культура народов Причерноморья", материалы которого объединены общей темой "Язык и Мир" и посвящены общим вопросам Языкознания и приурочены к 80-летию со дня рождения Николая Александровича Рудякова.Стаття із спеціалізованого випуску наукового журналу "Культура народов Причерноморья", матеріали якого поєднані загальною темою "Мова і Світ" і присвячені загальним питанням мовознавства і приурочені до 80-річчя з дня народження Миколи Олександровича Рудякова

Attenuation modified by DIG and dust as seen in M31

The spatial distribution of dust in galaxies affects the global attenuation, and hence inferred properties, of galaxies. We trace the spatial distribution of dust in five fields (at 0.6-0.9 kpc scale) of M31 by comparing optical attenuation with the total dust mass distribution. We measure the attenuation from the Balmer decrement using Integral Field Spectroscopy and the dust mass from Herschel far-IR observations. Our results show that M31's dust attenuation closely follows a foreground screen model, contrary to what was previously found in other nearby galaxies. By smoothing the M31 data we find that spatial resolution is not the cause for this difference. Based on the emission line ratios and two simple models, we conclude that previous models of dust/gas geometry need to include a weakly or non-attenuated diffuse ionized gas (DIG) component. Due to the variation of dust and DIG scale heights with galactic radius, we conclude that different locations in galaxies will have different vertical distributions of gas and dust and therefore different measured attenuation. The difference between our result in M31 with that found in other nearby galaxies can be explained by our fields in M31 lying at larger galactic radii than the previous studies that focused on the centres of galaxies.Comment: 20 pages, 13 figures, ApJ accepted and in pres

Temporal studies into attachment, VE-cadherin perturbation, and paracellular migration of human umbilical mesenchymal stem cells across umbilical vein endothelial monolayers

Mesenchymal stem cells from Wharton’s jelly of human umbilical cords (WJ-MSC) are a valuable alternate source of stem cells. Their role in situ and whether they can interact and cross intact endothelial monolayers requires elucidation. The aim of this study was to investigate the dynamic interactions between WJ-MSC and human umbilical vein endothelial cells (HUVEC), including attachment, transit times, extravasation pathway, and the effects of WJ-MSC on junctional vascular endothelial (VE)-cadherin. HUVEC were grown to near confluence in endothelial media and to full confluence in mixed media before the addition of PKH26-labelled WJ-MSC. Time lapse fluorescence microscopy showed stem cells undergoing membrane blebbing followed by amoeboid movement on HUVEC monolayers before rounding up and changing shape toward the spindleshaped morphology during/after transmigration to subendothelial positions. Cells demonstrated a time lag of 60 min before paracellular extravasation, confirmed by confocal microscopy. Forty-six percent of attached cells crossed in the first 2 h. By 16 h, a majority of cells had transmigrated with > 96% of cells crossing by 22 h. There were concomitant changes in endothelial junctional VE-cadherin with statistically significant increases in discontinuous staining at 2 h, return to control values at 16 h, even as from 22 h onward HUVEC displayed increased percentage of junctions with continuous staining and upregulation of protein. Our data suggests that WJ-MSC crosses the endothelial barrier through the paracellular pathway and can influence junctional organization of HUVEC with discreet perturbation of VE-cadherin preceding transmigration followed by upregulation once the adluminal side is reached. The latter may reflect a perivascular support function of WJ-MSC in the umbilical cord