Can Liars Ever Prosper.

The paper compares the optimal financial contracts of a firm which has private information over its expost revenues when the finance can be provided by either a single or two groups of investors. When they are the only investors we use a financial contract with non-contractible monitoring, in which the probabilities of cheating by the entrepreneur/firm and monitoring by investors are mutual best responses. The contract is written by the entrepreneur knowing that this equilibrium will subsequently occur. With a second group of investors who have no monitoring rights, we analyse a truth telling contract and a misrepresentation contract in which cheating and monitoring probabilities are chosen in a similar way to those of the single investor contract. The non monitoring investors learn the results of any monitoring for free. Our main results are that: the two investor group truth-telling contract achieves the second best despite the lack of commitment; this contract is only feasible under limited liability of investors if low state revenues are high enough. When low state revenues are too low for this then the two investor misrepresentation contract is optimal. This contract has a negative correlation between repayments to the two investor groups: the contract uses the non-monitoring group to smooth out the repayments of the entrepreneur optimally. This reduces his incentive to make false reports and mitigates the investor's incentive to monitor. A second result is that the two investor scenario is Pareto superior to the single investor model. We show that with unlimited liability on investor groups, the two investor misrepresentation contract is as good as the second best. Generally in this misrepresentation contract investors may have to make repayments to the firm rather than receive them. A further result is that the three party contract is always renegotiation-proof, as well as collusion-proof so long as the low state revenues are below the expected repayments of the monitor. Last we show that under limited liability the share of finance provided by the two is strictly positive and uniquely determined.financial contracts; multiple investors; no commitment.

Pensions and Intertemporal Choice: Evidence from the U.S. Military

SSRN-id2383874We study a choice made by over 20,000 U.S. military personnel annually between the High-3 and Redux retirement plans. Compared to High-3, Redux offers a $30,000 current lump sum payment in exchange for lower future annuity payments. Despite break-even discount rates between 10chose Redux. The likelihood of choosing Redux is decreasing with the break-even discount rate and is related to individual demographics. The implied personal discount rates from this choice are around 9.2Offering this choice has already saved the government over$2 billion in future retirement payments

Retention Analysis Modeling for the Acquisition Workforce II

Acquisition Research Program Sponsored Report SeriesSponsored Acquisition Research & Technical ReportsTo support the modern warfighters tasked with increasing demands in a constantly changing global environment, it is imperative that the defense acquisition system continue to evolve to maintain its capability and flexibility. In this effort, growing a talented, experienced, and well-qualified civilian workforce will be vital. As part of this broad effort, the Section 809 Panel has recommended change to the DoD’s career management framework to grow and augment the workforce, and the DoD AWF Strategic Plan — FY 2016 – FY 2021 has emphasized efforts since 2010 to restore and restructure the AWF after a period of twenty years of shrinkage. This technical research report is the second in a proposed series of three linked studies to provide a cutting-edge modeling and simulation tool that leverages the increase in availability of AWF data and the large increases in computing power in the last decades. Building on the proof-of-concept model created as part of the first-year effort, we continue our development of a “Dynamic Retention Model (DRM)” designed from the ground-up for the AWF. Using a large personnel dataset of the acquisition workforce as well as a representative dataset of the civilian population from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, we estimate our DRM. DRM is a leading-edge technique that uses a powerful mathematical/econometric technique called dynamic programming. It takes a complex, multi-period problem (such as the lifetime labor market decisions of an acquisition worker) and breaks it down into simpler, one-period sub-problems in a recursive manner. Solving a single-period problem “nests” the future decisions that the worker will make, allowing the estimation and prediction of complex behavior in a surprisingly manageable framework. With estimates from the model, we simulate how various modifications in personnel policies, such as changes in salary structure and bonuses, would have affected the labor market decisions of the workforce. In particular, our model takes into account civilian positions the AWF may move into upon the decision to separate from DoD, allowing a more accurate prediction of the impact of monetary personnel policies, which must be evaluated in relation to what the worker could realistically earn in the civilian sector. In doing so, the model can help the AWF leadership in achieving the desired workforce size and structure. We conclude this report by expanding on possible extensions to enrich the model to provide yet more accurate estimation and richer simulations, including evaluating the potential impact of COVID-19 on the long-run career trajectory of the workforce.Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited

Protective effect of Hypericum calabricum Sprengel on oxidative damage and its inhibition of nitric oxide in lipopolysaccharide-stimulated RAW 264.7 macrophages

The present study shows for the fi rst time the phenolic composition and the in vitro properties (antioxidant and inhibition of nitric oxide production) of Hypericum calabricum Sprengel collected in Italy. The content of hypericins (hypericin and pseudohypericin), hyperforin, fl avonoids (rutin, hyperoside, isoquercetrin, quercitrin, quercetin and biapigenin) and chlorogenic acid of H. calabricum, have been determined. The ethyl acetate fraction from the aerial parts of H. calabricum exhibited activity against the radical 1,1-diphenyl-2picrylhydrazyl (DPPH) with IC 50 value of 1.6 μg/ml. The test for inhibition of nitric oxide (NO) production was performed using the murine monocytic macrophage cell line RAW 264.7. The ethyl acetate fraction had signifi cant activity with an IC 50 value of 102 μg/ml and this might indicate that it would have an anti-infl ammatory effect in vivo

Human Vitreous Collagen Fragments Dimension As a Function of Vitrectomy Cut Rate

Purpose: To study the dimensions and distribution of human vitreous collagen type II fragments collected after vitrectomy performed at varying cut rates and to evaluate if increasing the cut rate produces smaller collagen fragments, thus reducing retinal traction and/or viscosity. Methods: Fluid was collected during core vitrectomies performed for macular surgery at cut rates from 1000 to 16,000 cuts per minute (CPM) and immediately refrigerated. Protein fractions were separated by molecular weight (MW; >100 kDa, 50–100 kDa, 50– 30 kDa, 30–10 kDa, and <10 kDa) through centrifugal filters. The Human Collagen II ELISA Kit colorimetric assay was then used to measure the COL2A1 in unfiltered and filtered samples. Results: Vitreous samples collected after vitrectomy performed at 16,000 CPM contained a higher concentration of protein with MW over 100 kDa than at any other cutting frequency (P < 0.01). No significant differences were found in fractions collected with a MW between 50 and 100 kDa. Collagen type II fragments over 100 kDa were significantly more represented than smaller fragments at each cut rate. The proportion of smaller (50–100 kDa) collagen fragments compared with those over 100 kDa was higher at 2000 CPM than at higher cut rates. Conclusions: Vitreous samples collected at different cut rates do not contain a significantly different proportion of collagen type II fragments of the tested MW. The extreme variability of vitreous flowthrough the cutter port may explain the uncertain predictability of collagen fragment MWs. Translational Relevance: Increasing the cut rate does not produce vitreous fragments of proportionally smaller dimension. It is necessary to achieve an invariant instantaneous flow through the cutter port in order to decrease retinal traction during vitrectomy

06N-P63\u3b1 and TA-P63\u3b1 exhibit intrinsic differences in transactivation specificities that depend on distinct features of DNA target sites.

TP63 is a member of the TP53 gene family that encodes for up to ten different TA and 06N isoforms through alternative promoter usage and alternative splicing. Besides being a master regulator of gene expression for squamous epithelial proliferation, differentiation and maintenance, P63, through differential expression of its isoforms, plays important roles in tumorigenesis. All P63 isoforms share an immunoglobulin-like folded DNA binding domain responsible for binding to sequence-specific response elements (REs), whose overall consensus sequence is similar to that of the canonical p53 RE. Using a defined assay in yeast, where P63 isoforms and RE sequences are the only variables, and gene expression assays in human cell lines, we demonstrated that human TA- and 06N-P63\u3b1 proteins exhibited differences in transactivation specificity not observed with the corresponding P73 or P53 protein isoforms. These differences 1) were dependent on specific features of the RE sequence, 2) could be related to intrinsic differences in their oligomeric state and cooperative DNA binding, and 3) appeared to be conserved in evolution. Since genotoxic stress can change relative ratio of TA- and 06N-P63\u3b1 protein levels, the different transactivation specificity of each P63 isoform could potentially influence cellular responses to specific stresses

False-negative RT-PCR in SARS-CoV-2 disease: experience from an Italian COVID-19 unit

False-negative cases of COVID19 are being increasingly reported. Laboratory diagnosis through RT-PCR testing alone lacks adequate sensitivity to be recommended as the only valid criterion to confirm COVID-19 diagnosis

Perinatal outcomes in twin late preterm pregnancies: results from an Italian area-based, prospective cohort study

Background: Multiple gestations represent a considerable proportion of pregnancies delivering in the late preterm (LP) period. Only 30% of LP twins are due to spontaneous preterm labor and 70% are medically indicated; among this literature described that 16–50% of indicated LP twin deliveries are non-evidence based. As non-evidence-based delivery indications account for iatrogenic morbidity that could be prevented, the objective of our observational study is to investigate first neonatal outcomes of LP twin pregnancies according to gestational age at delivery, chorionicity and delivery indication, then non evidence-based delivery indications. Methods: Prospective cohort study among twins infants born between 34 + 0 and 36 + 6 weeks, in Emilia Romagna, Italy, during 2013–2015. The primary outcome was a composite of adverse perinatal outcomes. Results: Among 346 LP twins, 84 (23.4%) were monochorionic and 262 (75.7%) were dichorionic; spontaneous preterm labor accounted for 85 (24.6%) deliveries, preterm prelabor rupture of membranes for 66 (19.1%), evidence based indicated deliveries were 117 (33.8%), while non-evidence-based indications were 78 (22.5%). When compared to spontaneous preterm labor or preterm prelabor rupture of membranes, pregnancies delivered due to maternal and/or fetal indications were associated with higher maternal age (p < 0.01), higher gestational age at delivery (p < 0.01), Caucasian race (p 0.04), ART use (p < 0.01), gestational diabetes (p < 0.01), vaginal bleeding (p < 0.01), antenatal corticosteroids (p < 0.01), diagnosis of fetal growth restriction (FGR) (p < 0.01), and monochorionic (p < 0.01). Two hundred twenty-six pregnancies (65.3%) had at least one fetus experiencing one composite of adverse perinatal outcome. Multivariate analysis confirmed that delivery indication did not affect the composite of adverse perinatal outcomes; the only characteristic that affect the outcome after controlling for confounding was gestational age at delivery (p < 0.01). Moreover, there was at least one adverse neonatal outcome for 94% of babies born at 34 weeks, for 73% of those born at 35 weeks and for 46% of those born at 36 weeks (p < 0.01). Conclusion: Our study suggests that the decision to deliver or not twins in LP period should consider gestational age at delivery as the main determinant infants’ prognosis. Delivery indications should be accurately considered, to avoid iatrogenic early birth responsible of preventable complications

Influences of base excision repair defects on the lethality and mutagenicity induced by Me-lex, a sequence-selective N3-adenine methylating agent.

Due to its minor groove selectivity, Me-lex preferentially generates N3-methyladenine (3-MeA) adducts in double-stranded DNA. We undertook a genetic approach in yeast to establish the influence of base excision repair (BER) defects on the processing of Me-lex lesions on plasmid DNA that harbors the p53 cDNA as target. We constructed a panel of isogenic strains containing a reporter gene to test p53 function and the following gene deletions: deltamag1, deltaapn1apn2, and deltaapn1apn2mag1. When compared with the wild-type strain, a decrease in survival was observed in deltamag1, deltaapn1apn2, and deltaapn1apn2mag1. The Me-lex-induced mutation frequency increased in the following order: wild typedeltamag1deltaapn1apn2 = deltaapn1apn2mag1. A total of 77 mutants (23 in wild type, 31 in deltamag1, and 23 in deltaapn1apn2) were sequenced. Eighty-one independent mutations (24 in wild type, 34 in deltamag1, and 23 in deltaapn1apn2) were detected. The majority of base pair substitutions were AT-targeted in all strains (14/23, 61% in wild type; 20/34, 59%, in deltamag1; and 14/23, 61%, in deltaapn1apn2). The Mag1 deletion was associated with a significant decrease of GCAT transitions when compared with both the wild-type and the AP endonuclease mutants. This is the first time that the impact of Mag1 and/or AP endonuclease defects on the mutational spectra caused by 3-MeA has been determined. The results suggest that 3-MeA is critical for Me-lex cytotoxicity and that its mutagenicity is slightly elevated in the absence of Mag1 glycosylase activity but significantly higher in the absence of AP endonuclease activity