Can Liars Ever Prosper.

The paper compares the optimal financial contracts of a firm which has private information over its expost revenues when the finance can be provided by either a single or two groups of investors. When they are the only investors we use a financial contract with non-contractible monitoring, in which the probabilities of cheating by the entrepreneur/firm and monitoring by investors are mutual best responses. The contract is written by the entrepreneur knowing that this equilibrium will subsequently occur. With a second group of investors who have no monitoring rights, we analyse a truth telling contract and a misrepresentation contract in which cheating and monitoring probabilities are chosen in a similar way to those of the single investor contract. The non monitoring investors learn the results of any monitoring for free. Our main results are that: the two investor group truth-telling contract achieves the second best despite the lack of commitment; this contract is only feasible under limited liability of investors if low state revenues are high enough. When low state revenues are too low for this then the two investor misrepresentation contract is optimal. This contract has a negative correlation between repayments to the two investor groups: the contract uses the non-monitoring group to smooth out the repayments of the entrepreneur optimally. This reduces his incentive to make false reports and mitigates the investor's incentive to monitor. A second result is that the two investor scenario is Pareto superior to the single investor model. We show that with unlimited liability on investor groups, the two investor misrepresentation contract is as good as the second best. Generally in this misrepresentation contract investors may have to make repayments to the firm rather than receive them. A further result is that the three party contract is always renegotiation-proof, as well as collusion-proof so long as the low state revenues are below the expected repayments of the monitor. Last we show that under limited liability the share of finance provided by the two is strictly positive and uniquely determined.financial contracts; multiple investors; no commitment.

Pensions and Intertemporal Choice: Evidence from the U.S. Military

SSRN-id2383874We study a choice made by over 20,000 U.S. military personnel annually between the High-3 and Redux retirement plans. Compared to High-3, Redux offers a $30,000 current lump sum payment in exchange for lower future annuity payments. Despite break-even discount rates between 10chose Redux. The likelihood of choosing Redux is decreasing with the break-even discount rate and is related to individual demographics. The implied personal discount rates from this choice are around 9.2Offering this choice has already saved the government over$2 billion in future retirement payments

Retention Analysis Modeling for the Acquisition Workforce II

Acquisition Research Program Sponsored Report SeriesSponsored Acquisition Research & Technical ReportsTo support the modern warfighters tasked with increasing demands in a constantly changing global environment, it is imperative that the defense acquisition system continue to evolve to maintain its capability and flexibility. In this effort, growing a talented, experienced, and well-qualified civilian workforce will be vital. As part of this broad effort, the Section 809 Panel has recommended change to the DoD’s career management framework to grow and augment the workforce, and the DoD AWF Strategic Plan — FY 2016 – FY 2021 has emphasized efforts since 2010 to restore and restructure the AWF after a period of twenty years of shrinkage. This technical research report is the second in a proposed series of three linked studies to provide a cutting-edge modeling and simulation tool that leverages the increase in availability of AWF data and the large increases in computing power in the last decades. Building on the proof-of-concept model created as part of the first-year effort, we continue our development of a “Dynamic Retention Model (DRM)” designed from the ground-up for the AWF. Using a large personnel dataset of the acquisition workforce as well as a representative dataset of the civilian population from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, we estimate our DRM. DRM is a leading-edge technique that uses a powerful mathematical/econometric technique called dynamic programming. It takes a complex, multi-period problem (such as the lifetime labor market decisions of an acquisition worker) and breaks it down into simpler, one-period sub-problems in a recursive manner. Solving a single-period problem “nests” the future decisions that the worker will make, allowing the estimation and prediction of complex behavior in a surprisingly manageable framework. With estimates from the model, we simulate how various modifications in personnel policies, such as changes in salary structure and bonuses, would have affected the labor market decisions of the workforce. In particular, our model takes into account civilian positions the AWF may move into upon the decision to separate from DoD, allowing a more accurate prediction of the impact of monetary personnel policies, which must be evaluated in relation to what the worker could realistically earn in the civilian sector. In doing so, the model can help the AWF leadership in achieving the desired workforce size and structure. We conclude this report by expanding on possible extensions to enrich the model to provide yet more accurate estimation and richer simulations, including evaluating the potential impact of COVID-19 on the long-run career trajectory of the workforce.Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited

Protective effect of Hypericum calabricum Sprengel on oxidative damage and its inhibition of nitric oxide in lipopolysaccharide-stimulated RAW 264.7 macrophages

The present study shows for the fi rst time the phenolic composition and the in vitro properties (antioxidant and inhibition of nitric oxide production) of Hypericum calabricum Sprengel collected in Italy. The content of hypericins (hypericin and pseudohypericin), hyperforin, fl avonoids (rutin, hyperoside, isoquercetrin, quercitrin, quercetin and biapigenin) and chlorogenic acid of H. calabricum, have been determined. The ethyl acetate fraction from the aerial parts of H. calabricum exhibited activity against the radical 1,1-diphenyl-2picrylhydrazyl (DPPH) with IC 50 value of 1.6 μg/ml. The test for inhibition of nitric oxide (NO) production was performed using the murine monocytic macrophage cell line RAW 264.7. The ethyl acetate fraction had signifi cant activity with an IC 50 value of 102 μg/ml and this might indicate that it would have an anti-infl ammatory effect in vivo

Human Vitreous Collagen Fragments Dimension As a Function of Vitrectomy Cut Rate

Purpose: To study the dimensions and distribution of human vitreous collagen type II fragments collected after vitrectomy performed at varying cut rates and to evaluate if increasing the cut rate produces smaller collagen fragments, thus reducing retinal traction and/or viscosity. Methods: Fluid was collected during core vitrectomies performed for macular surgery at cut rates from 1000 to 16,000 cuts per minute (CPM) and immediately refrigerated. Protein fractions were separated by molecular weight (MW; >100 kDa, 50–100 kDa, 50– 30 kDa, 30–10 kDa, and <10 kDa) through centrifugal filters. The Human Collagen II ELISA Kit colorimetric assay was then used to measure the COL2A1 in unfiltered and filtered samples. Results: Vitreous samples collected after vitrectomy performed at 16,000 CPM contained a higher concentration of protein with MW over 100 kDa than at any other cutting frequency (P < 0.01). No significant differences were found in fractions collected with a MW between 50 and 100 kDa. Collagen type II fragments over 100 kDa were significantly more represented than smaller fragments at each cut rate. The proportion of smaller (50–100 kDa) collagen fragments compared with those over 100 kDa was higher at 2000 CPM than at higher cut rates. Conclusions: Vitreous samples collected at different cut rates do not contain a significantly different proportion of collagen type II fragments of the tested MW. The extreme variability of vitreous flowthrough the cutter port may explain the uncertain predictability of collagen fragment MWs. Translational Relevance: Increasing the cut rate does not produce vitreous fragments of proportionally smaller dimension. It is necessary to achieve an invariant instantaneous flow through the cutter port in order to decrease retinal traction during vitrectomy

06N-P63\u3b1 and TA-P63\u3b1 exhibit intrinsic differences in transactivation specificities that depend on distinct features of DNA target sites.

TP63 is a member of the TP53 gene family that encodes for up to ten different TA and 06N isoforms through alternative promoter usage and alternative splicing. Besides being a master regulator of gene expression for squamous epithelial proliferation, differentiation and maintenance, P63, through differential expression of its isoforms, plays important roles in tumorigenesis. All P63 isoforms share an immunoglobulin-like folded DNA binding domain responsible for binding to sequence-specific response elements (REs), whose overall consensus sequence is similar to that of the canonical p53 RE. Using a defined assay in yeast, where P63 isoforms and RE sequences are the only variables, and gene expression assays in human cell lines, we demonstrated that human TA- and 06N-P63\u3b1 proteins exhibited differences in transactivation specificity not observed with the corresponding P73 or P53 protein isoforms. These differences 1) were dependent on specific features of the RE sequence, 2) could be related to intrinsic differences in their oligomeric state and cooperative DNA binding, and 3) appeared to be conserved in evolution. Since genotoxic stress can change relative ratio of TA- and 06N-P63\u3b1 protein levels, the different transactivation specificity of each P63 isoform could potentially influence cellular responses to specific stresses

Stable water isotope as foundamental tool in karst aquifer studies: some results from isotopic applications in the Apuan Alps carbonatic complexes (NW Tuscany)

The management and protection of water resources in karst environment require detailed knowledge of the aquifer system which can be obtained through a multidisciplinary approach, including not only hydrogeological/structural assessment, but also the use of tools not commonly used in hydrogeology, as the isotope ratios. In the present work some examples of isotopic applications on karst aquifers are discussed in relation to hydrogeological studies carried out in the Carrione Stream, Frigido River, and Versilia River catchments (Apuan Alps, Tuscany). In particular, during such studies the isotopic ratios 18O / 16O and 2H / 1H of the water molecule, mainly, and 13C / 12C of inorganic carbon in solution were used. The isotopic data, and their comparison with the hydrogeological and structural-geological ones, were useful: to obtain information about the hydrodynamic conditions in the aquifer; to define the recharge area of main springs; and to identify different circulation systems drained by closing springs which have similar chemistry. The obtained results confirm that in karst systems, where it is often difficult to carry out conventional hydrogeological surveys, the isotopic instruments have a fundamental role in the study of water circulation

False-negative RT-PCR in SARS-CoV-2 disease: experience from an Italian COVID-19 unit

False-negative cases of COVID19 are being increasingly reported. Laboratory diagnosis through RT-PCR testing alone lacks adequate sensitivity to be recommended as the only valid criterion to confirm COVID-19 diagnosis

Contamination Assessment and Temporal Evolution of Nitrates in the Shallow Aquifer of the Metauro River Plain (Adriatic Sea, Italy) after Remediation Actions

Over the last decades, groundwater resources at global level have suffered a significant deterioration due to nitrate pollution, mainly related to the input of agricultural fertilizers, manure, sewage, and untreated urban and industrial effluents. The most impacted waters are those forming surface and shallow reservoirs, which usually play a key role in supplying waters to civil, agricultural, and industrial activities. The terminal portion of the Metauro River plain, located in central Italy along the Adriatic Sea coastline, hosts a strategic phreatic aquifer that, along with the surface water of the Metauro River, supplies water to the local population (i.e., about 60,000 people). This shallow coastal aquifer experiences a long-lasting story of nitrate contamination since the 1970s when the increase in the use of agricultural fertilizers contributed to very high levels of pollution (NO3- > 100 mg/L). This fact prompted the local authorities to carry out remediation actions that involve a pumping system to inject the NO3--poor waters from the Metauro River course directly into the shallow aquifer. The present work was aimed at defining the contamination of nitrates in this important water resource. The main geochemical characteristics and the temporal evolution of NO3- concentrations (between 2009 and 2020), in the shallow coastal aquifer of the Metauro River plain, were analyzed by means of classical geochemical analyses and multivariate methods accounting for the compositional nature of the data, to assess the efficiency of the in-situ remediation over time