Strategy of protection against hazardous channel and hydrological processes in rivers of developed territories and territories with focal development

In 2012-2015, the Makkaveev Research Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Fluvial Processes of MSU, Department of Geography, carried out a research, including analysis of hydrological and channel regimes of the Tom river in the Kuznetsk basin (Kuzbass) and the Katun river up to Uimonsky (the Altai), intra-mountain drainage basins, the survey of floodplains and eroded banks, and modelling of floods occurring in floodplains. As a result, a concept has been developed to improve protection measures against hazardous hydrological and channel processes. More than 200 engineering and organisational events were suggested as part of the concept. Given the dense network of river banks and the high potential damage caused by floods in Kuzbass, the continuous protection of cities, large residential and commercial areas, as well as sections of roads and railways subject to erosion is a priority in the flood control concept. In the case of the Katun river basin, characterized by local development, low population density, and relatively small damage caused by floods, the emphasis is put on organisational measures: prevention, evacuation of people and property, insurance and compensation. Selective engineering structures should, as a matter of priority, reduce the dangerous erosion of river banks and ensure a high level of protection of the territory against floods

Large-basin hydrological response to climate model outputs: uncertainty caused by internal atmospheric variability

An approach is proposed to assess hydrological simulation uncertainty originating from internal atmospheric variability. The latter is one of three major factors contributing to uncertainty of simulated climate change projections (along with so-called "forcing" and "climate model" uncertainties). Importantly, the role of internal atmospheric variability is most visible over spatio-temporal scales of water management in large river basins. Internal atmospheric variability is represented by large ensemble simulations (45 members) with the ECHAM5 atmospheric general circulation model. Ensemble simulations are performed using identical prescribed lower boundary conditions (observed sea surface temperature, SST, and sea ice concentration, SIC, for 1979–2012) and constant external forcing parameters but different initial conditions of the atmosphere. The ensemble of bias-corrected ECHAM5 outputs and ensemble averaged ECHAM5 output are used as a distributed input for the ECOMAG and SWAP hydrological models. The corresponding ensembles of runoff hydrographs are calculated for two large rivers of the Arctic basin: the Lena and Northern Dvina rivers. A number of runoff statistics including the mean and the standard deviation of annual, monthly and daily runoff, as well as annual runoff trend, are assessed. Uncertainties of runoff statistics caused by internal atmospheric variability are estimated. It is found that uncertainty of the mean and the standard deviation of runoff has a significant seasonal dependence on the maximum during the periods of spring–summer snowmelt and summer–autumn rainfall floods. Noticeable nonlinearity of the hydrological models' results in the ensemble ECHAM5 output is found most strongly expressed for the Northern Dvina River basin. It is shown that the averaging over ensemble members effectively filters the stochastic term related to internal atmospheric variability. Simulated discharge trends are close to normally distributed around the ensemble mean value, which fits well to empirical estimates and, for the Lena River, indicates that a considerable portion of the observed trend can be externally driven

ОСОБЕННОСТИ ДЕГРАДАЦИИ СТРУКТУРЫ И МЕХАНИЧЕСКИЕ СВОЙСТВА ЭЛЕМЕНТОВ ПЕЧНОГО И ТЕПЛОЭНЕРГЕТИЧЕСКОГО ОБОРУДОВАНИЯ ПОСЛЕ ДЛИТЕЛЬНОЙ ЭКСПЛУАТАЦИИ

The paper presents results of investigations on structure and mechanical properties of technological equipment elements made of heat-resistant steels. A scale of chrome and molybdenum steel microstructure degradation based on evaluation of  coagulated carbide size and material mechanical properties (a point from 0-operation without time limits, up to 4-operation prohibition) has been proposed in the paper. It has been  established that an analysis of  steel microstructure directly on equipment elements by means of a portable microscope is an efficient express method for evaluation of equipment condition and structures due to control of material structure degradation rate of a diagnosed object.Представлены результаты исследований структуры и механических свойств элементов технологического оборудования, изготовленных из теплоустойчивых сталей. Предложена шкала деградации микроструктуры хромомолибденовых сталей, основанная на оценке размера коагулированных карбидов и механических свойствах материала (балл от 0 – эксплуатация без ограничений по времени, до 4 – запрещение эксплуатации). Установлено, что анализ микроструктуры сталей непосредственно на элементах оборудования с помощью переносного микроскопа является эффективным экспресс-методом оценки состояния оборудования и конструкций за счет контроля степени деградации структуры материала диагностируемого объекта.

Прогностическая роль экспрессии маркера PBRM1 при светлоклеточном раке почки

Background. Clear-cell renal-cell carcinoma (CCRCC) is the most common histological type of cancer of this localization. Changes in 16 genes were identified as significant in carcinogenesis of CCRCC. After VHL suppressor gene, PBRM1 gene is the second by frequency of genetic abnormalities in CCRCC and it is mutated in 40—50 % cases of CCRCC.The study objectiveis to analyze the effect of abnormalities in PBRM1 protein expression on survival of patients with CCRCC.Materials and methods. The study included 137patients with newly diagnosed and histologically confirmed CCRCC. For all study participant, detailed medical history and questionnaire data were acquired. Prior to treatment, blood samples and tumor tissue removed during surgery were obtainedfrom all patients. All patients are annually followed up for current information on their life status, disease dynamics, treatment. Minimalfollow-up time is 22 months, maximal is 128 months, mean is 61.8 months, median is 48 months. Immunohistochemical (IHC) testing of PBRM1 expression was performed using standard technique with polyclonal rabbit antibodies PB1[N1N2] N-term (GeneTex 100781) with 1:50 dilution, DAB staining. Normally, protein product of the wild type PBRM1 gene is functioning and can be detected in the nucleus. Absence of nuclear expression of PBRM1 points to genetic or epigenetic abnormalities.Results.Renal cancer-specific survival is significantly lower in patients without expression of the PRBM1 protein in tumor cells. The longest 5- (84 %) and 10-year (84 %) survival was observed in patients with diffuse nuclear expression of the PBRM1 protein. Difference in survival of these patients compared to patients without PRBM1 protein expression is statistically significant (p = 0.004). We have performed an analysis of the association between survival of patients with CCRCC andfocal nuclear PBRM1 expression. In these patients, survival is lower than in patients with diffuse expression but higher than in patients without nuclear expression of PBRM1 (p = 0.02). Cytoplasmic expression of PBRM1 doesn’t affect survival.Conclusion.The obtained results point to prognostic value of PBRM1 gene activity which is abnormal in almost half of all CCRCC cases. IHC testing is an appropriate, reliable and affordable method for determination of PBRM1 protein expression and therefore can be used in practice. Favorable course and prognosis in patients with stage I—II CCRCC and preserved nuclear expression of the PBRM1 protein should be noted: 5-year survival for these patients is 100 %. This observation is crucial for making decisions on treatment of these patients.Введение. Светлоклеточный почечно-клеточный рак (скПКР) является наиболее частым гистологическим типом рака этой локализации. Выделяют 16 генов, нарушения которых играют значительную роль в канцерогенезе скПКР. Вторым по частоте генетических нарушений в скПКР после гена-супрессора VHL является ген PBRM1, который мутирует в 40—50 % случаев скПКР.Цель исследования — анализ влияния нарушений экспрессии белка PBRM1 на выживаемость пациентов со скПКР.Материалы и методы. В исследование были включены 137пациентов с впервые выявленным и гистологически верифицированным диагнозом скПКР. Для каждого участника исследования были собраны детальная медицинская информация и данные анкетирования. От всех больных до начала лечения были получены образцы крови и удаленной во время хирургической операции опухолевой ткани. Все пациенты ежегодно прослеживаются в целях получения актуальной информации об их жизненном статусе, динамике заболевания, лечении. Минимальное время прослеживания — 22мес, максимальное — 128мес, среднее — 61,8мес, медиана — 48мес. Иммуногистохимическое (ИГХ) исследование экспрессии PBRM1 было выполнено по стандартной методике c поликлональными кроличьими антителами PB1[N1N2] N-term (GeneTex 100781) в разведении 1:50, проявление проводилось с использованием DAB. Белковый продукт гена PBRM1 дикого типа в норме функционирует и выявляется в ядре. Отсутствие ядерной экспрессии PBRM1 указывает на генетические или эпигенетические нарушения.Результаты. Специфическая для рака почки выживаемость статистически достоверно ниже у больных, в опухолевых клетках которых нет экспрессии белка PRBM1. Наилучшая 5- (84 %) и 10-летняя (84 %) выживаемость отмечена у больных с диф­фузной ядерной экспрессией белка PBRM1. Различия в выживаемости этих больных и тех, у которых нет экспрессии белка PBRM1, статистически высоко достоверны (р = 0,004). Нами впервые проведен анализ выживаемости больных скПКР с фо­кальной ядерной экспрессией PBRM1. У этих пациентов выживаемость ниже, чем у больных с диффузной экспрессией, но выше, чем у больных с отсутствием ядерной экспрессии PBRM1 (р = 0,02). Цитоплазматическая экспрессия PBRM1 на выживаемость не влияет.Заключение. Таким образом, полученные нами результаты указывают на прогностическую значимость активности гена PBRM1, нарушение функции которого встречается почти в половине случаев скПКР. ИГХ-исследование является адекватным, надежным и доступным методом для определения экспрессии белка PBRM1 и, соответственно, может применяться на практике. Особен­но следует отметить благоприятное течение и прогноз болезни у пациентов с I—II стадиями скПКР, у которых сохранена ядер­ная экспрессия белка PBRM1: 5-летняя выживаемость у них составляет 100 %. Это наблюдение крайне важно для принятия решения по тактике лечения таких больных

CONCERNING VALUES OF CENTRAL HEMODYNAMICS IN PATIENTS WITH ARTERIAL HYPERTENSION

An analysis of relationship and its reliability level between central hemodynamics parameters has been done in 415 patients with arterial hypertension. Correlation coefficient between circulation index and cardiac output was ft 8985 with p < 0. 001, between peripheral resistance index and total peripheral resistance was 0. 9283 with p < 0. 001. Correlation coefficient between circulation index and peripheral resistance index was -0, 6266 with p < 0,001, between cardiac output and total peripheral resistance -ft 7275 with p < 0,001. High degree association and its reliability justify a transition approach from cardiac output and total peripheral resistance to respective indices for cardiovascular evaluation

Two-dimensional hydrodynamic flood modelling for populated valley areas of Russian rivers

Results of flood modelling for three cities located in different parts of Russia: (1) Veliky Ustyug at the Northern Dvina river (Europe); (2) Mezhdurechensk at the Tom river (Siberia); and (3) Blagoveschensk at the Amur river (Far East) are presented. The two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of flow in channels and on floodplain STREAM_2D on the basis of the numerical solution of two-dimensional Saint–Venant equations on a hybrid curvilinear quadrangular and rectangular mesh was used for the simulations. Verification of the model through a comparison of simulated inundated areas with outlines of flooded zones from satellite images for known hydrologic situations demonstrate close correspondence (relative errors of 7–12% in terms of the area for peaks of the analysed floods). Analyses of embankment influence of large-scale levees on the water flow demonstrate that, in some cases, water levels could rise by more than 1 m and the patterns of the flooding zones could significantly differ

SPECIFIC DEGRADATION STRUCTURE FEATURES AND MECHANICAL PROPERTIES OF FURNACE AND HEAT POWER EQUIPMENT ELEMENTS AFTER LONG-TERM OPERATION

The paper presents results of investigations on structure and mechanical properties of technological equipment elements made of heat-resistant steels. A scale of chrome and molybdenum steel microstructure degradation based on evaluation of  coagulated carbide size and material mechanical properties (a point from 0-operation without time limits, up to 4-operation prohibition) has been proposed in the paper. It has been  established that an analysis of  steel microstructure directly on equipment elements by means of a portable microscope is an efficient express method for evaluation of equipment condition and structures due to control of material structure degradation rate of a diagnosed object