Uncertainty in Bus Arrival Time Predictions: Treating Heteroscedasticity With a Metamodel Approach

Arrival time predictions for the next available bus or train are a key component of modern Traveller Information Systems (TIS). A great deal of research has been conducted within the ITS community developing an assortment of different algorithms that seek to increase the accuracy of these predictions. However, the inherent stochastic and non-linear nature of these systems, particularly in the case of bus transport, means that these predictions suffer from variable sources of error, stemming from variations in weather conditions, bus bunching and numerous other sources. In this paper we tackle the issue of uncertainty in bus arrival time predictions using an alternative approach. Rather than endeavour to develop a superior method for prediction we take existing predictions from a TIS and treat the algorithm generating them as a black box. The presence of heteroscedasticity in the predictions is demonstrated and then a meta-model approach deployed that augments existing predictive systems using quantile regression to place bounds on the associated error. As a case study this approach is applied to data from a real-world TIS in Boston. This method allows bounds on the predicted arrival time to be estimated, which give a measure of the uncertainty associated with the individual predictions. This represents to the best of our knowledge the first application of methods to handle the uncertainty in bus arrival times that explicitly takes into account the inherent heteroscedasticity. The meta-model approach is agnostic to the process generating the predictions which ensures the methodology is implementable in any system

Effects of hydroxyapatite and PDGF concentrations on osteoblast growth in a nanohydroxyapatite-polylactic acid composite for guided tissue regeneration

The technique of guided tissue regeneration (GTR) has evolved over recent years in an attempt to achieve periodontal tissue regeneration by the use of a barrier membrane. However, there are significant limitations in the currently available membranes and overall outcomes may be limited. A degradable composite material was investigated as a potential GTR membrane material. Polylactic acid (PLA) and nanohydroxyapatite (nHA) composite was analysed, its bioactive potential and suitability as a carrier system for growth factors were assessed. The effect of nHA concentrations and the addition of platelet derived growth factor (PDGF) on osteoblast proliferation and differentiation was investigated. The bioactivity was dependent on the nHA concentration in the films, with more apatite deposited on films containing higher nHA content. Osteoblasts proliferated well on samples containing low nHA content and differentiated on films with higher nHA content. The composite films were able to deliver PDGF and cell proliferation increased on samples that were pre absorbed with the growth factor. nHA–PLA composite films are able to deliver active PDGF. In addition the bioactivity and cell differentiation was higher on films containing more nHA. The use of a nHA–PLA composite material containing a high concentration of nHA may be a useful material for GTR membrane as it will not only act as a barrier, but may also be able to enhance bone regeneration by delivery of biologically active molecules

El papel social del militar en el postconflicto colombiano

En el presente ensayo se pretende argumentar diferentes dinámicas del conflicto interno en Colombia que llevó a que de manera temprana las Fuerzas Militares del país asumieran funciones de seguridad civil, desarrollando su estructura y doctrina en torno a las necesidades de la lucha contra los grupos armados al margen de la ley y en defensa de la sociedad y las instituciones, de esta manera relegó a un segundo plano su rol clásico de defensa de las fronteras nacionales frente a potenciales amenazas externas. Así pues es necesario mirar en primera instancia como El ordenamiento constitucional, legal y jurídico del Estado moderno prevé y justifica la creación y existencia de las fuerzas militares FFMM- cuya misión fundamental es la defensa de la soberanía con respecto y frente a otras naciones del mundo (defensa nacional externa). Así mismo, la defensa nacional interna está asignada al cuerpo de policía, al margen y de manera totalmente separada de las FFMMPregrad

Thermal Stabilization of an Endoglucanase by Cyclization

An intein-driven protein splicing approach allowed for the covalent linkage between the N- and C-termini of a polypeptide chain to create circular variants of the endo-β-1,3-1,4-glucanase, LicA, from Bacillus licheniformis. Two circular variants, LicA-C1 and LicA-C2, which have connecting loops of 20 and 14 amino acids, respectively, showed catalytic activities that are approximately two and three times higher, respectively, compared to that of the linear LicA (LicA-L1). The thermal stability of the circular variants was significantly increased compared to the linear form. Whereas the linear glucanase lost half of its activity after 3 min at 65 °C, the two circular variants have 6-fold (LicA-C1) and 16-fold (LicA-C2) increased half-life time of inactivation. In agreement with this, fluorescence spectroscopy and differential scanning calorimetry studies revealed that circular enzymes undergo structural changes at higher temperatures compared to that of the linear form. The effect of calcium on the conformational stability and function of the circular LicAs was also investigated, and we observed that the presence of calcium ions results in increased thermal stability. The impact of the length of the designed loops on thermal stability of the circular proteins is discussed, and it is suggested that cyclization may be an efficient strategy for the increased stability of proteins

Osteoid osteoma of the ethmoid bone associated with dacryocystitis

BACKGROUND: Osteoid osteomas (OO) are small, benign osteoblastic lesions. Ethmoid bone OO has been very rarely reported so far. CASE PRESENTATION: We report a case of a 16-year-old boy suffering from persistent epiphora and a mild pain in the area of median canthus, due to a bone density mass within the right ethmoid air cells extending to the ipsilateral right orbit. The mass was removed via an external ethmoidectomy approach. Histopathologic examination of the specimen set the diagnosis of OO. One year after the operation the patient is free of symptoms, while no recurrence occurred. CONCLUSION: A case of ethmoid bone OO associated with dacryocystitis is reported. Although benign and rare, OO should be considered in differential diagnosis of the ethmoid bone osteoblastic lesions

Comprehensive characterization of molecular interactions based on nanomechanics

Molecular interaction is a key concept in our understanding of the biological mechanisms of life. Two physical properties change when one molecular partner binds to another. Firstly, the masses combine and secondly, the structure of at least one binding partner is altered, mechanically transducing the binding into subsequent biological reactions. Here we present a nanomechanical micro-array technique for bio-medical research, which not only monitors the binding of effector molecules to their target but also the subsequent effect on a biological system in vitro. This label-free and real-time method directly and simultaneously tracks mass and nanomechanical changes at the sensor interface using micro-cantilever technology. To prove the concept we measured lipid vesicle (approximately 748*10(6) Da) adsorption on the sensor interface followed by subsequent binding of the bee venom peptide melittin (2840 Da) to the vesicles. The results show the high dynamic range of the instrument and that measuring the mass and structural changes simultaneously allow a comprehensive discussion of molecular interactions

Chemical characterization of some substituted hydroxyapatites

Synthetic multi-substituted hydroxyapatite nano powders containing silicon and or carbonate prepared by a wet chemical method. The process parameters are set up to allow the simultaneous substitution of carbonate and silicon ions in the place of phosphorus. The chemical and structural characterizations of the prepared powders are determined with the aid of; XRF, ICP, XRD and FTIR. The results show that, the ion substitution in the crystal lattice of HA caused a change in the unit cell dimensions and affected the degree of crystallization of the produced powders. The apatite formation abilityy of the prepared discs from the synthesized powders is determined by immersing in SBF solution for different periods. The degree of ion release was determined in the obtained solutions. The examined surface of the immersed discs under SEM and analyzed by CDS showed a more dense HA layer than those of un-substituted ones. The HA with the substituted silicon and carbonate ions, showed the highest solubility with greater rate of ion release, compared with carbonate-free powder. All prepared powders took sodium ion from the SBF solution during immersion, which was not recorded before

‘Classical' but not ‘other' mutations of EGFR kinase domain are associated with clinical outcome in gefitinib-treated patients with non-small cell lung cancer

‘Classical' mutations in the EGFR tyrosine kinase domain (exons 18, 19 and 21) have been associated with sensitivity to tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) in patients with NSCLC. The aim of the current study was to evaluate whether other than the classical G719X, DEL19 and L858R mutations of EGFR confer sensitivity to TKIs. Genomic DNA was extracted from microdissected formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tumour tissue from 86 patients treated with gefitinib. Exons 18, 19 and 21 were amplified and subjected to direct sequencing. Eleven (13%) patients harboured the classical exon's 18, 19 and 21 mutations, while 14 (16%) had ‘other' variants. There was a significantly higher percentage of ‘never-smoker' patients with ‘classical' EGFR mutations (P=0.002). Among patients with ‘classical' mutations 3 patients achieved PR and 7 SD, while in the ‘other' mutations group 10 patients had SD as best response. In the wild-type group, there were 3 patients with PR and 25 with SD. Median TTP was 16, 64 (P=0.002) and 21 weeks and median survival was 36, 78 and 67 weeks for patients with wild-type, ‘classical' and ‘other' EGFR mutations, respectively. The clinical relevance of ‘other' EGFR mutation variants remains uncertain and requires further assessment in a prospective study