Dynamic Price Relationships in the Grain and Cattle Markets, Pre and Post-Ethanol Mandate

This paper determines the dynamic interaction between prices of corn, soybean, grain sorghum (milo), wheat, feeder cattle and live (fed) cattle by taking into account the surge in corn consumption stemming from the boost of mandated ethanol production. Corn is a major carbohydrate-feed component of livestock, with grain sorghum and wheat serving as close substitutes. Moreover, soybean is an important protein-feed component. Being non-stationary data, a vector autoregressive (VAR) model (Sims, 1980) that includes an ‘error correction’ term is applied to the series; likewise known as a vector error correction (VEC) model (Engel and Granger, 1987 and Johansen, 1989). Two separate periods are estimated. The first considers prices prior to recent ethanol mandates. The second includes increased corn consumption from ethanol production, mandated by Energy Policy Acts of 2005 and 2007. Results are consistent with past literature regarding feeder and live cattle prices, among others. More importantly, we find support for the notion of modified feed rations in feedlot operations, given the increased corn prices following the post-ethanol mandated period. The finding is corroborated by two different methods, one via Granger Causality and other via impulse response functions.Corn Prices, Ethanol, Cattle Feed Price Dynamics, Agribusiness, Livestock Production/Industries, Risk and Uncertainty,

Price Volatility, Nonlinearity, and Asymmetric Adjustments in Corn, Soybean, and Cattle Markets: Implications of Ethanol-Driven (Market) Shocks

Grain prices have risen sharply since 2005 and 2006 affecting livestock markets by increasing feed prices and leading to significant volatility shocks. The high price levels and magnitude of sustained high volatilities has raised concerns for many sectors of the economy, in particular those with direct relation to these markets. Policy makers are analyzing the interrelationships among these markets, and the effects of energy market shocks on agricultural markets. This study considers a threshold structure in a multivariate time-series model that evaluates these market linkages, capturing asymmetric correlations between grain and livestock prices, including volatility spillovers. We empirically study the impact of corn usage for ethanol production in the evolution of the above mentioned prices. Results are compared to previous scenarios where corn, soybean and livestock production and consumption did not face the corn demand for ethanol production. We find positive dynamic correlations between corn and soybean and feeder and fed cattle prices, consistent with the literature. And we find an inverse or negative relation between corn and feeder/calf prices for the period post mandated ethanol production, as anticipated by the literature for increased corn prices. Also, we find there are adjustment costs inhibiting price transmission between the crops and the live cattle market, in the form of modifying feeding rations. More relevantly, we identify plausible asymmetric effect on the correlations between the markets, especially when considering the period for the ethanol driven corn consumption versus previous periods of corn consumption. These asymmetric correlations are the result of spillover effects.price volatility, market linkages, thresholds, ethanol-driven shocks, asymmetric correlations, spillovers, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Demand and Price Analysis, Farm Management, Financial Economics, Public Economics, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Multiproduct Optimal Hedging by Time-Varying Correlations in a State Dependent model of Regime-Switching

Replaced with revised version of paper 07/29/10.Agribusiness, Demand and Price Analysis, Risk and Uncertainty,

Effective forecasting for supply-chain planning: an empirical evaluation and strategies for improvement

Demand forecasting is a crucial aspect of the planning process in supply-chain companies. The most common approach to forecasting demand in these companies involves the use of a simple univariate statistical method to produce a forecast and the subsequent judgmental adjustment of this by the company's demand planners to take into account market intelligence relating to any exceptional circumstances expected over the planning horizon. Based on four company case studies, which included collecting more than 12,000 forecasts and outcomes, this paper examines: i) the extent to which the judgmental adjustments led to improvements in accuracy, ii) the extent to which the adjustments were biased and inefficient, iii) the circumstances where adjustments were detrimental or beneficial, and iv) methods that could lead to greater levels of accuracy. It was found that the judgmentally adjusted forecasts were both biased and inefficient. In particular, market intelligence that was expected to have a positive impact on demand was used far less effectively than intelligence suggesting a negative impact. The paper goes on to propose a set of improvements that could be applied to the forecasting processes in the companies and to the forecasting software that is used in these processes

A State Dependent Regime Switching Model of Dynamic Correlations

Replaced with revised version of paper 07/29/09.dynamic correlations, regime switching, state dependent probabilities, thresholds, spillovers, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Invisible Poles and their integration into Polish society: changing identities of UK second-generation migrants in the Brexit era

The article discusses what happens when a ‘critical event’ exposes a migrant population to public view, leading them to reflect on their multiple identities and loyalties. Its focus is on twenty-first century Europe, where societies spread across international borders, offering opportunities for individuals to identify with two or more, and attempt to integrate sufficiently for their own purposes within each. Our case study is British-born Poles; the critical events are the post-2004 wave of Polish migration and the 2016 Brexit referendum. Based on interviews with 28 British-born individuals who felt they had emerged from ‘invisibility’ and become increasingly Polish, we seek to explain their integration trajectories into new Polish society in the UK and society in Poland. These integration experiences are shaped by the complex intersection of generation, wave, community, and historical and geographical setting. Existing research tends to focus on tensions between the post-1945 and post-2004 waves. We show how tensions can occur. However, we also point to instances of successful integration, where British-born Poles update their linguistic and cultural knowledge, form social relations with the new arrivals, and perhaps most importantly, experience life in Poland more intensely than was possible before 2004

The aging of tungsten filaments and its effect on wire surface kinetics in hot-wire chemical vapor deposition

Wire-desorbed radicals present during hot-wire chemical vapor deposition growth have been measured by quadrupole mass spectrometry. New wires produce Si as the predominant radical for temperatures above 1500 K, with a minor contribution from SiH3, consistent with previous measurements; the activation energy for the SiH3 signal suggests its formation is catalyzed. Aged wires also produce Si as the predominant radical (above 2100 K), but show profoundly different radical desorption kinetics. In particular, the Si signal exhibits a high temperature activation energy consistent with evaporation from liquid silicon. The relative abundance of the other SiHx species suggests that heterogeneous pyrolysis of SiH4 on the wire may be occurring to some extent. Chemical analysis of aged wires by Auger electron spectroscopy suggests that the aging process is related to the formation of a silicide at the surface, with silicon surface concentrations as high as 15 at. %. A limited amount (2 at. %) of silicon is observed in the interior as well, suggesting that diffusion into the wire occurs. Calculation of the relative rates for the various wire kinetic processes, coupled with experimental observations, reveals that silicon diffusion through the silicide is the slowest process, followed by Si evaporation, with SiH4 decomposition being the fastest

Value stability and change during self-chosen life transitions: self-selection versus socialization effects

Three longitudinal studies examine a fundamental question regarding adjustment of personal values to self-chosen life transitions: Do values fit the new life setting already at its onset, implying value-based self-selection? Or do values change to better fit the appropriate and desirable values in the setting, implying value socialization? As people are likely to choose a life transition partly based on their values, their values may fit the new life situation already at its onset, leaving little need for value socialization. However, we propose that this may vary as a function of the extent of change the life transition entails, with greater change requiring more value socialization. To enable generalization, we used 3 longitudinal studies spanning 3 different life transitions and different extents of life changes: vocational training (of new police recruits), education (psychology vs. business students), and migration (from Poland to Britain). Although each life transition involved different key values and different populations, across all 3 studies we found value fit to the life situation already early in the transition. Value socialization became more evident the more aspects of life changed as part of the transition, that is, in the migration transition. The discussion focuses on the implications of these findings for research on values and personality change, as well as limitations and future directions for research

Binaries in star clusters and the origin of the field stellar population

Many, possibly most, stars form in binary and higher-order multiple systems. Therefore, the properties and frequency of binary systems provide strong clues to the star-formation process, and constraints on star-formation models. However, the majority of stars also form in star clusters in which the birth binary properties and frequency can be altered rapidly by dynamical processing. Thus, we almost never see the birth population, which makes it very difficult to know if star formation (as traced by binaries, at least) is universal, or if it depends on environment. In addition, the field population consists of a mixture of systems from different clusters which have all been processed in different ways.Comment: 16 pages, no figures. To appear as invited review article in a special issue of the Phil. Trans. Royal Soc. A: Ch. 8 "Star clusters as tracers of galactic star-formation histories" (ed. R. de Grijs). Fully peer reviewed. LaTeX, requires rspublic.cls style fil