Water vapour line assignments in the 9250-26 000 cm (-1) frequency range

Line parameters for water vapour in natural abundance have recently been determined for the 9250-13 000 cm(-1) region [M.-F. Wrienne, A. Jenouvrier, C. Hermans, A.C. Vandaele, M. Carleer, C. Clerbaux, P.-F. Coheur, R. Colin, S. Fally, M. Bach, J. Quant. Spectrosc. Radiat. Transfer 82 (2003) 99] and the 13 000-26 000 cm(-1) region [P.-F. Coheur, S. Fally, M. Carleer, C. Clerbaux, R. Colin, A. Jenouvrier, M.-F. Wrienne, C. Hermans, A.C. Vandaele, J. Quant. Spectrosc. Radial. Transfer 74 (2002) 493] using a high-resolution Fourier-transform spectrometer with a long-path absorption cell. These spectra are analysed using several techniques including variational line lists and assignments made. In total, over 15 000 lines were assigned to transitions involving more than 150 exited vibrational states of (H2O)-O-16. Twelve new vibrational band origins are determined and estimates for a further 16 are presented. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved

Climate driven life histories: the case of the Mediterranean Storm petrel

Seabirds are affected by changes in the marine ecosystem. The influence of climatic factors on marine food webs can be reflected in long-term seabird population changes. We modelled the survival and recruitment of the Mediterranean storm petrel (Hydrobates pelagicus melitensis) using a 21-year mark-recapture dataset involving almost 5000 birds. We demonstrated a strong influence of prebreeding climatic conditions on recruitment age and of rainfall and breeding period conditions on juvenile survival. The results suggest that the juvenile survival rate of the Mediterranean subspecies may not be negatively affected by the predicted features of climate change, i.e., warmer summers and lower rainfall. Based on considerations of winter conditions in different parts of the Mediterranean, we were able to draw inferences about the wintering areas of the species for the first time

Avian cholera, a threat to the viability of an Arctic seabird colony?

© The Author(s), 2012. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in PLoS One 7 (2012): e29659, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0029659.Evidence that infectious diseases cause wildlife population extirpation or extinction remains anecdotal and it is unclear whether the impacts of a pathogen at the individual level can scale up to population level so drastically. Here, we quantify the response of a Common eider colony to emerging epidemics of avian cholera, one of the most important infectious diseases affecting wild waterfowl. We show that avian cholera has the potential to drive colony extinction, even over a very short period. Extinction depends on disease severity (the impact of the disease on adult female survival) and disease frequency (the number of annual epidemics per decade). In case of epidemics of high severity (i.e., causing >30% mortality of breeding females), more than one outbreak per decade will be unsustainable for the colony and will likely lead to extinction within the next century; more than four outbreaks per decade will drive extinction to within 20 years. Such severity and frequency of avian cholera are already observed, and avian cholera might thus represent a significant threat to viability of breeding populations. However, this will depend on the mechanisms underlying avian cholera transmission, maintenance, and spread, which are currently only poorly known.The study was supported by the Canadian Wildlife Service-Environment Canada (http://www.ec.gc.ca/), Nunavut Wildlife Management Board (http:// www.nwmb.com/), Greenland Institute of Natural Resources (http://www.natur.gl/), Polar Continental Shelf Project (http://polar.nrcan.gc.ca/), Fonds Que´be´cois de la Recherche sur la Nature et les Technologies (http://www.fqrnt.gouv.qc.ca/), Canadian Network of Centres of Excellence ArcticNet (http://www.arcticnet.ulaval. ca/), Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (http://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/), and the Department of Indian Affairs and Northern Canada (http://www.ainc-inac.gc.ca/)

Climate change, phenological shifts, eco-evolutionary responses and population viability: toward a unifying predictive approach

The debate on emission targets of greenhouse gasses designed to limit global climate change has to take into account the ecological consequences. One of the clearest ecological consequences is shifts in phenology. Linking these shifts to changes in population viability under various greenhouse gasses emission scenarios requires a unifying framework. We propose a box-in-a-box modeling approach that couples population models to phenological change. This approach unifies population modeling with both ecological responses to climate change as well as evolutionary processes. We advocate a mechanistic embedded correlative approach, where the link from genes to population is established using a periodic matrix population model. This periodic model has several major advantages: (1) it can include complex seasonal behaviors allowing an easy link with phenological shifts; (2) it provides the structure of the population at each phase, including the distribution of genotypes and phenotypes, allowing a link with evolutionary processes; and (3) it can incorporate the effect of climate at different time periods. We believe that the way climatologists have approached the problem, using atmosphere–ocean coupled circulation models in which components are gradually included and linked to each other, can provide a valuable example to ecologists. We hope that ecologists will take up this challenge and that our preliminary modeling framework will stimulate research toward a unifying predictive model of the ecological consequences of climate change

Matrix models and sensitivity analysis of populations classified by age and stage : a vec-permutation matrix approach

© The Author(s), 2011. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Theoretical Ecology 5 (2012): 403-417, doi:10.1007/s12080-011-0132-2.Matrix population models in which individuals are classified by both age and stage can be constructed using the vec-permutation matrix. The resulting age-stage models can be used to derive the age-specific consequences of a stage-specific life history or to describe populations in which the vital rates respond to both age and stage. I derive a general formula for the sensitivity of any output (scalar, vector, or matrix-valued) of the model, to any vector of parameters, using matrix calculus. The matrices describing age-stage dynamics are almost always reducible; I present results giving conditions under which population growth is ergodic from any initial condition. As an example, I analyze a published stage-specific model of Scotch broom (Cytisus scoparius), an invasive perennial shrub. Sensitivity analysis of the population growth rate finds that the selection gradients on adult survival do not always decrease with age but may increase over a range of ages. This may have implications for the evolution of senescence in stage-classified populations. I also derive and analyze the joint distribution of age and stage at death and present a sensitivity analysis of this distribution and of the marginal distribution of age at death.This research was supported by National Science Foundation Grant DEB-0816514 and by a Research Award from the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation

Isotopic Investigation of Contemporary and Historic Changes in Penguin Trophic Niches and Carrying Capacity of the Southern Indian Ocean

A temperature-defined regime shift occurred in the 1970s in the southern Indian Ocean, with simultaneous severe decreases in many predator populations. We tested a possible biological link between the regime shift and predator declines by measuring historic and contemporary feather isotopic signatures of seven penguin species with contrasted foraging strategies and inhabiting a large latitudinal range. We first showed that contemporary penguin isotopic variations and chlorophyll a concentration were positively correlated, suggesting the usefulness of predator δ13C values to track temporal changes in the ecosystem carrying capacity and its associated coupling to consumers. Having controlled for the Suess effect and for increase CO2 in seawater, δ13C values of Antarctic penguins and of king penguins did not change over time, while δ13C of other subantarctic and subtropical species were lower in the 1970s. The data therefore suggest a decrease in ecosystem carrying capacity of the southern Indian Ocean during the temperature regime-shift in subtropical and subantarctic waters but not in the vicinity of the Polar Front and in southward high-Antarctic waters. The resulting lower secondary productivity could be the main driving force explaining the decline of subtropical and subantarctic (but not Antarctic) penguins that occurred in the 1970s. Feather δ15N values did not show a consistent temporal trend among species, suggesting no major change in penguins’ diet. This study highlights the usefulness of developing long-term tissue sampling and data bases on isotopic signature of key marine organisms to track potential changes in their isotopic niches and in the carrying capacity of the environment

Generalized Theorems for Nonlinear State Space Reconstruction

Takens' theorem (1981) shows how lagged variables of a single time series can be used as proxy variables to reconstruct an attractor for an underlying dynamic process. State space reconstruction (SSR) from single time series has been a powerful approach for the analysis of the complex, non-linear systems that appear ubiquitous in the natural and human world. The main shortcoming of these methods is the phenomenological nature of attractor reconstructions. Moreover, applied studies show that these single time series reconstructions can often be improved ad hoc by including multiple dynamically coupled time series in the reconstructions, to provide a more mechanistic model. Here we provide three analytical proofs that add to the growing literature to generalize Takens' work and that demonstrate how multiple time series can be used in attractor reconstructions. These expanded results (Takens' theorem is a special case) apply to a wide variety of natural systems having parallel time series observations for variables believed to be related to the same dynamic manifold. The potential information leverage provided by multiple embeddings created from different combinations of variables (and their lags) can pave the way for new applied techniques to exploit the time-limited, but parallel observations of natural systems, such as coupled ecological systems, geophysical systems, and financial systems. This paper aims to justify and help open this potential growth area for SSR applications in the natural sciences

Atmospheric carbon dioxide retrieved from the Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT): Comparison with ground-based TCCON observations and GEOS-Chem model calculations

We retrieved column-averaged dry air mole fractions of atmospheric carbon dioxide (X_CO_2) from backscattered short-wave infrared (SWIR) sunlight measured by the Japanese Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT). Over two years of X_CO_2 retrieved from GOSAT is compared with X_CO_2 inferred from collocated SWIR measurements by seven ground-based Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) stations. The average difference between GOSAT and TCCON X_CO_2 for individual TCCON sites ranges from −0.87 ppm to 0.77 ppm with a mean value of 0.1 ppm and standard deviation of 0.56 ppm. We find an average bias between all GOSAT and TCCON X_CO_2 retrievals of −0.20 ppm with a standard deviation of 2.26 ppm and a correlation coefficient of 0.75. One year of XCO2 was retrieved from GOSAT globally, which was compared to global 3-D GEOS-Chem chemistry transport model calculations. We find that the latitudinal gradient, seasonal cycles, and spatial variability of GOSAT and GEOS-Chem agree well in general with a correlation coefficient of 0.61. Regional differences between GEOS-Chem model calculations and GOSAT observations are typically less than 1 ppm except for the Sahara and central Asia where a mean difference between 2 to 3 ppm is observed, indicating regional biases in the GOSAT X_CO_2 retrievals unobserved by the current TCCON network. Using a bias correction scheme based on linear regression these regional biases are significantly reduced, approaching the required accuracy for surface flux inversions